NFL Week 8 Stack Em Up: DraftKings

This week there is just one game with a 50 point or more projected total, as well as some games with an over/under of 47 or more points and a good amount of teams with high implied totals so there are some stacks we can target in Week 8.

For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.

Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.

Top Stacks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game Over/Under: 49

Bucs Implied Points: 24.5

The Bucs and Raiders game has one of the higher implied point total of the slate and it is currently a pick em, which basically means that Vegas is projecting a close game with plenty of scoring. Jameis Winston $5,700 will likely be very popular this week and rightfully so. The Raiders have allowed +2.2 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks, per Fantasy Labs and are yielding 308.6 passing yards per game, while surrendering 13 passing touchdowns. Winston is averaging nearly 40 pass attempts per game and the Bucs are currently ranked fourth in pass attempts per game. He will make mistakes without a doubt and turn the ball over, but the fact that he slings it as often as he does and is facing a defense that is susceptible to the pass, should create plenty of opportunities to makes positive plays. Another plus is the fact that he is very cheap.

There is no need to get cute here, so just pair up Winston with the player who receives 32.5 percent of the targets share for the Bucs and 32.1 percent of the red zone targets, Mike Evans $8,100. This is a favorable matchup for Evans as the Raiders have allowed +1.7 points above expectations to opposing receivers, per Fantasy Labs and are yielding 205.4 receiving yards, while giving up seven receiving touchdowns. He averages 12.5 targets per game and has been peppered with double digit targets in every game since Week 2. In addition, he has scored at least one touchdown in all but one game this season, making this a spot that is difficult to ignore.

You can also consider a three man stack here and plug in Jacquizz Rodgers $5,800 who is also in a very appealing situation. He has over 25 touches in each of the last two games and has topped 100 rushing yards in both games, while eclipsing 20 fantasy points in each of the last two weeks. The price has gone up for Rodgers, but it remains affordable and at a range that still gives him the opportunity to exceed value. The Raiders have allowed +1.9 points above expectations to opposing running backs and are giving up 155.6 total yards per game, while yielding seven total touchdowns. Running backs have rushed for over 125 yards in four of the seven games against Oakland. Rodgers not only carries the workload for the Bucs, but is also involved in the passing game as he has received seven targets in the last two games. He has been the most efficient back for the Bucs this season and they will likely continue to lean heavily on him.

My favorite option: Winston/Evans

Atlanta Falcons

Game Over/Under: 52.5

Falcons Implied Points: 27.75

 

The Falcons and Packers game currently has the highest projected total of the slate and just a three point spread, which means a potential shootout in the making. The Falcons also have the highest implied team total of the week. Matt Ryan $7,000 has had a surprisingly good season, averaging 335.4 passing yards and 25 DraftKings points per game, while throwing 16 touchdowns. The Packers have been somewhat generous to opposing quarterbacks through the first seven weeks, giving up 261.7 passing yards per game and 10 passing touchdowns. They have also been tough against the run, which could force the Falcons to rely more on Ryan’s arm who this week, who is already averaging 34.9 pass attempts per game. It appears that the way to beat the Packers is through the air, even in the one game that they surrendered 100+ rushing yards, the quarterback that week threw for three touchdowns. Since this game could possibly shootout, it could potentially lead to plenty of fantasy points from the offense.

Julio Jones $9,600 has put together some monster performances in recent weeks as he has topped 135 receiving yards and 29 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. The only game he struggled in during that four week span was against the best pass defense in the league, the Broncos, aside from that he has shredded opposing defenses. Jones is averaging 9.3 targets per game and accounts for 26.9 percent of the target share for the Falcons. The Packers are giving up 170.3 receiving yards per game and have surrendered eight receiving touchdowns. Jones is once again is a favorable situation and one that he should be able to exploit, and although the price is steep, he offers tremendous upside with a high floor. Lastly, the potential game script for this contest could play heavily into his favor.

This is another offense where a potential three man stack is to be considered. I understand that the Packers are stingy against the run, but when we are pairing up a running back with his receiver it is because he is involved in the passing game. Devonta Freeman $6,500 is averaging four targets per game, but that is playing in roughly just 50 percent of the snaps, however, now that Tevin Coleman is unlikely to play, Freeman could be on the field for the majority of the offensive snaps. This should create more opportunity and usage for Freeman as Coleman accounted for 3.4 targets per game. Freeman played in 75 percent of the offensive snaps last week after Coleman left with a hamstring injury. Keep an eye on the running back situation in Atlanta, but if they will be without Coleman, Freeman could see a heavy workload and an increased role in the pass game as well.

 

My favorite option: Ryan/Jones

Oakland Raiders

Game over/Under: 49

Raiders Implied Points: 24.5

This is a game I have a lot of interest in obviously as I think both offenses are in play here. One of the first things that stood out to me was that Derek Carr $5,900 is underpriced. He is $1,400 cheaper than what he was at the start of the season and I am not sure why. He has played relatively well throughout the season, averaging 258.1 yards and 19.6 DraftKings points per game, while tossing 13 touchdowns passes. This is a favorable matchup as the Bucs are giving up 249.7 passing yards per game and have surrendered 10 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Based on the projected total and the line for this game, it appears Vegas is projecting a shootout, which is why I am bullish on these offenses. Not to mention that the Raiders defense has struggled this season, so this could force the offense to put up points in order to remain competitive in this game and for a chance to win.

Both of the receivers on this offense, Michael Crabtree $6,700 and Amari Cooper $7,600 are in play here and both make fine stacking options. Crabtree is averaging 8.4 targets per game and accounts for 22.6 percent of the targets share for the Raiders, as well as, 21.2 percent of the red zone targets. He has received seven red zone targets in the last four games and has converted that into five touchdowns. On the other hand you have Cooper who is averaging 9.3 targets per game and accounts for 24.9 percent of the Raiders targets share. He has topped 100 receiving yards in two of the last three games and also scored a touchdown in that span. The crowd might be leaning on Crabtree because of last week’s performance which has me more bullish on Cooper, but both are in great spots. The Bucs have allowed +1.2 points above expectations to receivers, per Fantasy Labs and are yielding 148.7 receiving yards per game, while surrendering nine receiving touchdowns.

 

My favorite option: Carr/Cooper

Contrarian Stack

Houston Texans

Game Over/Under: 45

Texans Implied Points: 23.75

 

All season long we have heard negative buzz surrounding Brock Osweiller $5,400 and it is totally understandable. After all, he is getting paid the big bucks and is not playing well.  With that said, if you look closely at the games he has struggled most in, it is games at Denver, at Minnesota, at New England, and against Kansas City, which almost any quarterback may fine difficulties in. When he has played teams such as the Titans, Colts, and Bears, he has actually done somewhat decent. In those favorable matchups, he has thrown two touchdowns passes in each game. Granted, they are not outstanding stat lines, but they are not as atrocious as some of his other game logs. I am not saying he is a good quarterback by any means, but if there is any game where he has a chance to go off, it is this one as the Lions have allowed +3.4 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks, per Fantasy Labs. They are giving up 284.3 passing yards per game and have surrendered 18 passing touchdowns, yielding multiple passing touchdowns in all but one game this season. Osweiller is very volatile and has shown very little this season, but this is a phenomenal spot for a quarterback and you will be getting him at possibly a very low ownership. He is not someone to go all in on, but someone I would have some exposure to.

Both DeAndre Hopkins $7,400 and Will Fuller $6,000 are possible stacking options here. Hopkins is averaging 9.9 targets per game, but has seen 27 targets in the last two games. He accounts for 25.9 percent of the target share for the Texans, as well as, 15.4 percent of the red zone targets. Hopkins has had a very disappointing season, but gets a good matchup this week against a Lions defense that has allowed +1.1 points above expectations to opposing receivers, per Fantasy Labs and are yielding 180 receiving yards per game, while giving up nine touchdowns. They could also be without their best corner, Darius Slay, who is hampered by a hamstring injury. Despite his recent struggles, Fuller continues to receive a decent amount of targets, averaging 7.8 targets per game and accounting for 17.7 percent of the Texans target share. He has played much better at home this season, averaging 97.3 yards, 23.1 fantasy points, and 5.3 receptions per game, while scoring both of his touchdowns. This is a great spot for both of these receivers and either of the two can be paired up with Osweiller.

The best way to attack the Lions defense is with a tight end as they are absolutely atrocious against the position, making C.J. Fiedorowicz $2,800 one of my favorite tight end plays of the week. He is averaging 6.8 targets, 4.8 receptions, 57.3 receiving yards, and 13.5 DraftKings points per game in the last four games, and has also scored two touchdowns in that span. The Lions have allowed +5.0 points above expectations to tight ends, per Fantasy Labs and are yielding 5.7 receptions and 60.4 receiving yards per game, to go along with seven touchdowns. He and Brock have been connecting in recent games, which is something I suspect will continue this week.

 

 

My favorite option: Osweiller/Fiedorowicz/Fuller

Good luck to all this week. For any questions or concerns, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal