Week 7 Stack Em Up – DraftKings
This week there are three games with a 50 point or more projected total, as well as some games with an over/under of 47 or more points and a good amount of teams with high implied totals so there are several stacks we can target in Week 7.
For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.
Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.
Game Over/Under: 53
Falcons Implied Points: 29.5
There is no doubt that this offense will generate a lot of attention this week and rightfully so, after all, the Falcons have the highest implied team total, and this contest has the highest projected total. Matt Ryan $7,200 is in a favorable situation against the Chargers who are yielding 296.2 passing yards per game and have surrendered 10 passing touchdowns. San Diego has allowed +2.3 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks, per Fantasy Labs. Ryan is averaging 345.8 passing yards per game and has tossed 15 touchdowns, however, in two home games this season, he is averaging 418.5 passing yards. This offense is rolling and it is led by superb play from their signal caller who should have no issues shredding this defense on Sunday.
Julio Jones $9,200 is the receiver you want to pair up with Ryan as he leads the team in targets, averaging 8.3 per game and accounts for 24 percent of the Falcons target share. He has a catch rate of 65 percent and an aDOT of 15.7. Jones has found the end zone in all but two games this season and has topped 24 DK points in three of his last five games. The Chargers are allowing 168 receiving yards and 13.5 receptions per game, while giving up seven touchdowns. There is plenty of value that has opened up this week, making it easier to pay up for Jones and pair him up with Ryan. These two should connect often on Sunday.
If you are trying to differentiate yourself with a Falcons stack, you can also look into Mohamed Sanu $4,400 who was peppered with 10 targets last week and has received 16 targets in the last two games. In the last game, he came down with five of his 10 targets for 47 yards and a touchdown, scoring 15.7 DK points. He will likely see a lot off Craig Mager, which is a favorable matchup for Sanu. It is worth noting that he popped up on the injury report on Thursday (groin), so if you are considering him, it is something worth monitoring. That being said, he does come at a very affordable price, is in a good matchup, and his team is expected to score points, so there is plenty to like.
The running back situation has been tough because this is a near 50/50 split in Atlanta. Tevin Coleman $4,900 and Devonta Freeman $5,900 are both in great spots here and could be considered in a stack. In fact, a three man stack is not out of the question, considering how affordable both of these backs are. One of the many things I look for when selecting my running backs on DraftKings is the amount of receptions and receiving yards opposing defenses allow to backs. In this instance, the Chargers have surrendered 54 receptions (most of any team) and 416 receiving yards (second most) to running backs, while yielding two touchdowns. In addition, they have given up seven rushing touchdowns and have allowed +2.6 points above expectations to running backs, per Fantasy Labs. Freeman has played in 55.3 percent of the offensive snaps this season, while Coleman has played in 44.4 percent of the offensive snaps. They have both also received nearly identical amount of targets, Coleman (23) and Freeman (24), but Coleman has accumulated almost three times the receiving yards that Freeman has and each of them have scored a receiving touchdown. If I have to choose between the two, it would be Coleman simply because of his ability to take one of his catches to the house or for a big play.
My favorite option: Ryan/Jones
Game Over/Under: 45.5
Bengals Implied Points: 28
This game does not have a high projected total, but the Bengals do have one of the higher implied team totals of the slate. Andy Dalton $6,000 faces off against a woeful Browns defense who has allowed +2.2 points above expectations to quarterbacks, per Fantasy Labs. Cleveland is giving up 295.3 passing yards per game and have surrendered 16 passing touchdowns. Dalton has exceeded value 57 percent of the time by an average of 2.16 points. In the last four games, quarterbacks have thrown three touchdown passes in each game against the Browns and have thrown at least two touchdown passes in each game this season. Dalton threw five touchdowns in two games against the Browns last year, while averaging 227 passing yards per game and also scored a rushing touchdown. This is a prime spot for Dalton and one he should be able to exploit.
There is no need to get cute here, pair Dalton up with his leading receiver, A.J. Green $8,600. The Browns are yielding 168.8 receiving yards per game and have given up 8 touchdowns, while allowing +3.4 points above expectations to opposing receivers, per Fantasy Labs. They have been getting burned by receivers and will face one of the top receivers in the league this week, so this may not end well for the Browns secondary. Green is averaging 10.3 targets and seven receptions per game, totaling 606 yards and scoring two touchdowns. He has seen fewer than 10 targets in a single game just once this season and accounts for 29.1 percent of the Bengals target share, as well as, 24.1 percent of the red zone targets. Green should have a field day this week and he and Dalton should connect frequently against the Browns.
My favorite option: Dalton/Green
New England Patriots
Game over/Under: 47
Patriots Implied Points: 27.25
The “angry Brady” theory lives on as Tom Brady $7,900 has been scorching hot since returning from his four game suspension. He has now topped 375 passing yards in each of his two games played and has thrown six touchdowns and no interception, while scoring over 30 DK points in each of those games. This week he faces a Steelers defense that has allowed +1.8 points above expectations to quarterbacks, per Fantasy Labs. They are yielding 298.3 passing yards per game and have surrendered six touchdowns. Despite being on the road, the Patriots are 7.5 point favorites and a lot has to do with the fact that the Steeler will be without Big Ben. If you are concerned of a potential blowout, do not be, the Patriots have beat their last two opponents by a combined 38 points and Brady has still put up massive numbers. This is a Patriots offense that is clicking on all cylinders and will run up the score any given Sunday.
There are several options to pair up with Brady on this offense, but the one that I would lean on most is Rob Gronkowski $7,200. Since Brady’s return, Gronk has topped 100 receiving yards in each game and has scored one touchdown, while averaging six receptions and eight targets per game. In the last two weeks, he has accounted for 21.1 percent of the Patriots target share. Gronk has a good history against the Steelers, averaging eight targets, 6.5 receptions, and 100.8 receiving yards per game in four career games against them, while scoring seven touchdowns. Yes that is correct, he has scored seven touchdowns in four career games against the Steelers and has had two three touchdowns games against them. Let’s face it, he is a nightmare of a matchup for opposing defenses and will create problems for any defender. He and Brady are back at it and should continue to connect often on a weekly basis.
Julian Edelman $6,500 continues to struggle despite the return of Brady, but the targets are still there for him as he has received 17 targets in the last two games. He also continues to play a lot of snaps, so it is only a matter of time before he has one of his 8-10 catch game and 100+ receiving yards with a touchdown. The Steelers are giving up 15.5 receptions and 172.3 receiving yards per game to receivers, but have surrendered just three touchdowns. Last year against the Steelers, Edelman caught 11 of his 12 targets for 97 yards. The volume and snaps are there for Edelman, eventually that will turn into fantasy points.
I really liked James White $4,600 last week and we could once again see the pass catching back have a busy Sunday afternoon. In the last two games, White has been peppered with 15 targets and has caught 12 of them for 110 yards and two touchdowns. He has accounted for 19.7 percent of the Patriots target share in that span. White has exceeded value 57 percent of the time by an average of 3.35 points, per Fantasy Labs. This is a favorable matchup for him as the Steelers have allowed +1.8 points above expectations to running backs and are giving up 6.2 receptions and 64.3 receiving yards per game, while yielding two touchdowns. White should continue to see a lot looks out of the backfield and remains a reasonably priced.
My favorite option: Brady/Gronkowski
Game Over/Under: 47
Jaguars Implied Points: 24.25
This is a game that I think has sneaky shootout potential and I really like this matchup for the Jaguars passing game. Blake Bortles $6,300 underwhelmed last week, but is in a good bounce back spot against a Raiders defense that has allowed +3.0 points above expectations to quarterbacks, per Fantasy Labs. Oakland is giving up 319 passing yards per game and have yielded 12 passing touchdowns. Bortles hasn’t topped 300 passing yards since Week 2 and has thrown nearly as many picks as he has touchdowns this season, but this Raiders secondary has been unable to contain quarterbacks. If there is a week he snaps out of the funk he has been in for most of the season, it is this one. I anticipate low ownership for Bortles and he is very affordable and in a great matchup. He is one of my favorite quarterbacks this week.
Much like his quarterback, Allen Robinson $7,300, has been somewhat disappointing this season. He has yet eclipsed 72 yards in a single game, but does have three touchdowns. Robinson is averaging 9.4 targets per game and accounts for 24.5 percent of the Jaguars target share, as well as, 29.2 percent of the red zone targets. The Raiders are giving up 205 receiving yards and 14.3 receptions per game, while surrendering seven touchdowns. They have allowed +1.8 points above expectations to opposing receivers, per Fantasy Labs. This is a good situation for Robinson and one he should have success in.
T.J. Yeldon $4,100 is also in play here if you are considering a three man stack for the Jags as he averages five targets per game and accounts for 13 percent of the Jaguars target share. This is also a favorable matchup for him as the Raiders have allowed +2.6 points above expectations to running backs, per Fantasy Labs. Oakland is giving up 125.2 rushing yards per game and have surrendered five rushing touchdowns, as well as, 4.5 receptions and 43.2 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns to running backs. He does not provides the highest of ceilings, but is in a plus matchup and very affordable.
My favorite option: Bortles/Robinson
Good luck to all this week. For any questions or concerns, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal