NBA Deep Dive- May 1, 2017
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Kyle Lowry had some troubles in round 1 against the Bucks, but he gets a much friendlier matchup this round with Kyrie Irving and the Cavs. After struggling in his first game against Irving this season, Lowry went for 57.2 DraftKings points in 39.7 minutes and 44.2 DraftKings points in 40.3 minutes in his final two games against Kyrie. We know the minutes will be there for Lowry and he makes for a very strong option in this series.
Like Lowry, DeMar DeRozan played heavy minutes in round 1 and had his share of struggles. Also like Lowry, he has a better matchup this round and has had plenty of success in it this season. In the three games against Cleveland that Kyrie Irving played, DeRozan averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. He played 36.8 minutes per game in round 1 and we could see that number climb in this series.
Norman Powell played at least 30 minutes in each of the last three games against Milwaukee and played very well, finishing each game with a positive net rating. Powell will be a strong option in this series as long as his role remains the same.
Serge Ibaka played extremely well against the Bucks in a matchup that suited his game perfectly. He will have a tougher time dealing with Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson in this series, but is still in play as a GPP option as he should see time at center and he has power forward eligibility. Ibaka averaged just 29.7 minutes per game in round 1, but did have a 22.4 percent usage rate.
Core: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan
Secondary: Serge Ibaka, Norman Powell
Value: P.J. Tucker
As usual, we can expect the Cavaliers to be a three man show. Kyrie Irving has a nice matchup that we targeted in DFS all season long as a point guard against the Raptors. Irving had a 36.4 percent usage rate in round 1 against Indiana and we should see him continue to dominate offensively in this series. In three games against Kyle Lowry this season, Irving was not great- averaging just 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. Still, the matchup is a good one and we should see good games out of Irving.
LeBron James played 43.8 minutes per game in round 1 with a usage rate of 32.2 percent and an assist rate of 36 percent. He will likely have to continue to completely carry the Cavaliers on his back, as they do not play defense and are facing a Toronto team that can definitely give them trouble. James will likely see a healthy amount of P.J. Tucker in this series but, with as much as he will have the ball in his hands, he remains a top option on any site regardless of format.
Kevin Love was a bit disappointing in round 1 as he had only one big game, but we should see him do better in this matchup. He averaged 33 minutes per game with a 20.5 percent usage rate in the first round. Ibaka was vulnerable against stretch fours throughout the regular season and Love should be able to take advantage. In addition, we should see Love get time at center as it is likely that the games go small and we see lineups with Ibaka and Love facing off at the five with Tucker and James at the four.
Core: LeBron James
Secondary: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love
Value: Tristan Thompson
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
James Harden dealt with an ankle injury in the first round against Oklahoma City but should be feeling better with the rest that he got between series. He averaged 37.4 minutes per game in the first round with a 37.6 percent usage rate and 35 percent assist rate. He obviously has a tough matchup with the Spurs, but he had some success against them this season scoring no less than 56.5 DraftKings points in any of his four games against them and topping 60 fantasy points in three games. He never showed his 70-80 point upside, but it is good that we at least saw him consistently score in the low-60s. He makes a lot more sense on sites like DraftKings where his price is adjusted for the matchup than he does on FanDuel where he is $12,800 and the same price as LeBron James.
Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Patrick Beverley will all need to step up as role players in this series to help out Harden. Ariza was steady against San Antonio in all four games this season, scoring at least 25 DraftKings points in each game with a high of 36. He offers pretty solid production for a very fair price. Gordon saw at least 35 minutes in each of the last three games of the Oklahoma City series and he showed some upside against San Antonio in the regular season, scoring 42.8 DraftKings points behind 32 real points in a game in November. Other than that, he was mediocre as he scored between 21 and 25.5 in the other three games. Anderson has shot better on the road than at home all season long and, in theory, matches up relatively well with the Spurs defensive scheme that can be vulnerable to stretch fours. He had one big game against San Antonio this season (in San Antonio) and struggled in the other three. He makes for a high-upside GPP option as long as he remains dirt cheap. Lou Williams is also a high-risk/high-reward option coming off the bench.
Nene and Clint Capela are both in nice spots in this series, although it is likely that they will more-or-less split minutes and that will limit their respective upsides. They are significantly cheaper on DraftKings than they are on FanDuel for game 1, so that is the place to roster either of them.
Core: James Harden
Secondary: Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams
Value: Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, Nene
San Antonio Spurs
Kawhi Leonard played out of his mind in round one against the Grizzlies and now gets a pace-up matchup against the Rockets. Leonard averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute against the Rockets in the regular season, but showed upside with a 51.2 fantasy point game in November and a 61.5 fantasy point game in March. Leonard averaged 37.7 minutes per game against Memphis with a usage rate of 31.2 percent. Look for continued excellence from him in this round. He is a slightly stronger option on FanDuel where he is just 85 percent of LeBron’s price compared to 89 percent on DraftKings.
Tony Parker finally saw extended minutes in the Memphis series starting in game four and he did not disappoint. Parker took at least 12 shots in each of the last four games and averaged 33.2 DraftKings points per game. His price has quickly increased but he is still a strong option, although he comes with risk since we never really know what Pop is going to do with his minutes. He averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in his three games against the Rockets this season.
LaMarcus Aldridge was disappointing in the Memphis series, but he did play very heavy minutes throughout the series which bodes well for him moving forward as it is unlikely that he continues to disappoint throughout the entire playoffs. He should benefit from the fast pace that the Rockets play at. Aldridge averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute against the Rockets in the regular season, which will pay off his current price tag nicely if he continues to see the 37.3 minutes per game that he saw in the first round.
David Lee moved into the lineup in game four as the starting center and played 33, 26 and 26 minutes in those games. He remains very cheap across the industry and should easily pay off his price tag as long as he remains in the starting lineup. Lee’s increased role makes Pau Gasol a very risky option that only makes sense in GPPs because it is a two-game slate and if, for some reason, Gasol’s minutes increase he should be productive in the matchup. Dewayne Dedmon should play more, in theory, because he is their best pick-and-roll defender in the paint, but he did not play more than 11 minutes in any game against the Rockets this season so we should just keep that in the back of our minds and be ready to jump on if we see his minutes suddenly start to trend up at some point during the series.
Core: Kawhi Leonard, David Lee
Secondary: LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker
Value: Danny Green, Pau Gasol