Week 3 Stack Em Up – DraftKings
Some of the shootouts that we were expecting last week did not pan out as we thought they would. That’s just part of variance, and goes to show that Vegas isn’t always right. This week, we have two games with a 51 or more projected total and one other game with a projected total of 48+ points. Once again, this presents some interesting stacking options as Vegas is expecting several teams to score a good amount of points. Let’s dive right into some stacking options for Week 3.
For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.
Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.
New Orleans Saints
Game Over/Under: 53.5
Saints Implied Points: 28.25
The Saints head back to the dome where they play their best football; in their season opener in New Orleans, Drew Brees $7,900 threw for 423 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders; on the road last week, he threw for 263 yards and one touchdown, so it’s clear that his home/away splits are massive. He did attempt more passes on the road last week than he did in Week 1 at home, which further proves he plays much better at home. Taking a look at his career splits, we see that he has thrown 75 more touchdown passes at home versus on the road in the same amount of games, and racks up an average of 17 more yards per game in the Dome. In the last two seasons (four games vs. Atlanta), he has thrown for over 300 in each game. Atlanta has surrendered 580 passing yards and seven touchdowns to opposing QB’s in the first two games of the season, so the spot is ripe for Brees, as Jameis Winston and Derek Carr were both able to have tremendous success against the Atlanta secondary. The two wide receivers to stack with Brees are Brandin Cooks $7,900 and Willie Snead $6,500. Cooks provides the biggest upside, while Snead is far steadier and offers the safer floor. In his first two games this season, Cooks has received nine targets in each and caught 13 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns. His stats are a bit padded by his 98-yard touchdown in Week 1, which is exactly the type of upside you get with Cooks. The one concern with Cooks is that he is expected to be lined up against Desmond Trufant, who we all know is an excellent corner back. That being said, Cooks can always break away for a big TD catch. Willie Snead has caught 14 of his 17 targets in the first two weeks, going for 226 yards and two touchdowns, scoring one of those TD’s in each of the first 2 games. He continues to impress with his good hands and the ability to make big plays, and Brees has shown plenty of confidence with him early this season, and that should continue on throughout the year.
Mark Ingram $5,900 has not been too involved in the passing game for the Saints this season as he has only been targeted six times in the first two weeks, but he has caught all six of those targets. His track record against the Falcons is solid- he’s scored at least one touchdown in each of the last three games against them, totaling 5 TD’s in those matchups. While he may not catch a ton of passes out of the backfield, he can account for some serious touchdowns in this contest. Using a three-man stack is not out of the question here.
My favorite option: Brees/Snead
Game Over/Under: 53.5
Falcons Implied Points: 25.25
Matt Ryan $7,400 has been surprisingly good early in the season, averaging 364 passing yards and 29.6 fantasy points per game. He has topped 330 yards in each game, throwing a total of five touchdowns; the matchup couldn’t be any better for Ryan. The Saints defense is arguably one of the worst in the league, as opposing quarterbacks have eclipsed 300 passing yards in each of the first two games of the season against the Saints. Ryan has tossed for over 300 passing yards and multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games against this defense, and in 15 career games against them, he has thrown 24 touchdowns and is averaging 301.5 passing yards per game. This game has shootout written all over it. It’s pretty obvious that you are going to want to stack Ryan with Julio Jones $9,500- Julio went for 106 yards and a touchdown, along with catching all 5 of his targets last week. He now has nine catches for 172 touchdowns and two touchdowns on the season. In Julio’s last four games against the Saints, he averages 9.5 targets, 7.3 receptions, and 116.3 yards per game; the one knock is that he did not scored a touchdown in any of those games. Sterling Moore Is expected to cover Jones on Monday night, and Jones stands five inches taller than him, along with being a far superior talent. He should have a field day in this matchup so lock him in for the Monday night hammer. Mohamed Sanu $5,700 is in a good position for a bounce back game here- after a strong Week 1 performance, he had a poor outing last game. In Week 2 against the Raiders, he caught three of his five targets for 19 yards. Sanu is affordable and is pretty much a lock for at least five targets, but I expect more this week, as he remains a viable stacking option with Ryan and could come at a low ownership based on the letdown game last week. This is also an outstanding situation for the Falcons running backs, however, it is a situation I find difficult to exploit. The Falcons are essentially using a running back by committee approach which caps any upside Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman have to offer. Hence, why I did not include them as stacking options.
My favorite option: Ryan/Jones
Game Over/Under: 51.5
Colts Implied Points: 27
The Colts host the Charges in what Vegas is projecting to be the second highest scoring game of the slate. The Chargers defense has not been stellar thus far, surrendering over 325 passing yards in each of the first two games, along with four touchdown passes, so naturally, Andrew Luck $7,600 makes a phenomenal play in this contest. It is worth noting that he has been dealing with a sore shoulder, but that has not kept him off of the field, and he is in a great matchup against the Chargers. Luck had a huge season opener against the Lions, where he threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns, but had a tougher time against the Broncos last week, who are one of the best defenses in the league. That sub-par performance could drop his ownership a notch, which makes this a great time to capitalize on rostering Luck. The Colts are at home this week, where he performs much better, and they are facing a vulnerable defense; Indiana is projected to score a little under four touchdowns. With Donte Moncrief on the shelf, T.Y. Hilton $6,800 and Phillip Dorsett $4,400 are Luck’s two primary receivers in this contest. Hilton has been targeted 23 times this season, and has been peppered with double digit targets in each of the first two games. Despite not scoring a touchdown yet, he stretches the field well and is always a deep threat. Chances are he will see a lot of Jason Verrett this weekend, making it a difficult matchup, but his explosiveness and big ability play give him lots of upside in GPPs. He also accounts for 26.7 percent of the red zone targets for the Colts, so he should not go overlooked.
Dorsett is the wide receiver I have interest in to pair with Luck. His price makes him a great value and he will step into the No. 2 WR role in this offense. Moncrief accounted for 10 targets this season prior to his injury, so those will be distributed elsewhere among this offense, with the majority of those going Dorsett’s way. Dorsett offers big ability play and explosiveness; he has five catches for 124 yards this season. The first two weeks have garnered him 11 targets, and he has played in 78.3 percent of snaps in the first two weeks.
Frank Gore $5,000 is also an option here. He has nine targets through the first two games and could see some of those short intermediate passes that use to go Moncrief’s way. Gore scored his first touchdown of the season last week, and it was a receiving touchdown, so they are comfortable throwing the ball his way. The Chargers have already given up 289 total yards and two touchdowns to opposing backs this season; Gore is reasonably priced and could be at sub five percent owned.
Dwayne Allen $3,800 is also an interesting option as the Chargers have had difficulties stopping opposing tight ends. In the first two weeks of the season, tight ends have eclipsed 80 yards in each game and have found the end zone once. We saw Allen score a touchdown in the season opener and in a favorable matchup like this one, he has a shot to do so again.
My favorite option: Luck/Dorsett
Green Bay Packers
Game over/Under: 48
Packers Implied Points: 28
The Packers finally get to play a home game this season and it is against a familiar team, the Lions. The division rivals face off in a game where some points are expected to be scored; in two of their last three games, these teams have combined for 50 points. Aaron Rodgers $7,700 has thrown two touchdowns in each of the last three games against the Lions and has also rushed for a touchdown in two of those games. The Lions have allowed 623 passing yards and six passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. In 14 career games against the Lions, Rodgers is averaging 253.8 passing yards per game and has scored 29 touchdowns (includes rushing). He is essentially averaging a smidge over two touchdowns per game against them. The two guys you want to pair up Rodgers with is Jordy Nelson $7,400 and/or Randall Cobb $7,300. Nelson has been peppered with 20 targets so far in the first two games and has come down with 11 catches for 105 yards. He has also scored a touchdown in each of the first two games. Nelson accounts for 29 percent of the Packers targets and 55.6 percent of the red zone targets; he looks to have returned to his old self after missing last season. Randall Cobb is also a viable option; he is responsible for 22.2 percent of the red zone targets, along with 21.7 of total Packers targets. Cobb Cobb has been targeted 15 times and has come down with 11 catches for 99 yards, but is yet to score a touchdown. Both Cobb and Nelson have played in over 90 percent of the offensive snaps, so you can count on this duo to be on the field and doing the majority of the work for this offense. This is a spot where a three man stack is fine to incorporate. Despite the lack of production, the first couple of weeks, it is worth mentioning Jared Cook $2,900, solely because the Lions have been abysmal against tight ends this season. They have surrendered 15 catches, 179 yards, and four touchdowns in the first two games of the season to opposing tight ends. The reason why I am tossing him into the equation is because of how bad the Lions have been against tight ends this season. They have surrendered 15 catches, 179 yards, and four touchdowns in the first two game of the season to opposing tight ends. Jared Cook is strictly a tournament play due to his low floor and volatility.
My favorite option: Rodgers/Nelson
Game Over/Under: 47
Titans Implied Points: 24.25
The Titans offense is in a very good spot this week. They host the Raiders, who have allowed over 30 points in each of their first two games. Marcus Mariota $5,900 is averaging 254.5 passing yards and 18.2 fantasy points per game, throwing two touchdowns in both games to start the season. This is a favorable matchup for Mariota as the Raiders have surrendered 819 passing yards and seven touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. Yes, seven in just two weeks. Mariota has not run much this season so far, but don’t forget that is very much in his arsenal. The two stacking options are Tajae Sharpe $4,700 and Delanie Walker $5,000. Sharpe is averaging nine targets per game and has caught 11 passes for 109 yards, accounting for 24.3 percent of the Titans targets. He is coming off of a subpar performance as he caught just four of his seven targets for 33 yards in Week 2. Still, you have to like the fact that he was targeted seven times, especially at this price, and given the fact that the Raiders have surrendered 35 receptions for 564 yards and five touchdowns to opposing receivers. In Week 1, Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead had a field day on this defense and last week Julio Jones had a nice game as well. Granted, Sharpe is not on the same level as those receivers, but he still receives a good amount of volume and should capitalize against a vulnerable defense. Delanie Walker caught all six of his targets last week for 83 yards and a touchdown; he now has 11 targets for the season and accounts for 15 percent of the Titans targets. The Raiders have allowed 10 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown to the Falcons tight ends last week. Walker is a high volume tight end that offers a steady floor week after week. Lastly, consider DeMarco Murray $6,300. He has been targeted seven times in each of the first two games of the season, catching 12 passes for 91 yards and two touchdowns. He has also carried the ball 25 times for 131 yards. What stands out the most about him is his involvement in the passing game here. His price has increased by $1,000 since the start of the season, which is something that I am not too thrilled about. That being said, he is still affordable and can be part of a Mariota stack.
My favorite option: Mariota/Sharpe
Good luck to all this week. For any questions or concerns, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal