2017 Dell Technologies Championship – Friday, September 1st through Monday, September 4th

TPC Boston – Norton, MA

7,331 Yard, Par 71

Greens: Bentgrass

Fairways: Wide with non-penal rough

Key Stats:

SG: BS (a new stat combining stroke gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach)

Par 4 BOB (birdie or better)

Par 3 Efficiency

Proximity (from key distances)

Key Approach Shot Distances:  150-175 and 175-200 yards

 

TPC Boston hosts the second leg of the FedEx Cup.  The course plays among the fifteen easiest on tour.  While relatively long, the fairways are wide, easy to hit and lack penal rough.  The course has a “links” feel to it with “native area” flowing throughout the grounds.  Each of the last three years the course has been extended, totaling 181 additional yards.  The Par 4 4th hole was lengthened to 510 yards for this year’s tournament.  There are four water hazards and many risk reward bunkers scattered about the fairways.

While you see all types of golfers winning here, including Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Chris Kirk and Ricky Fowler, DD will be more important than usual this weekend.  The bentgrass fairways are wide and the rough, well…Not so rough.  Avoid golfers that don’t average around 290 yards from the tee box; the distance needed to successfully flight most of the fairway bunkers and leave yourself a shorter approach shot (8 Iron to Wedge).

Six of the 11 Par 4s are longer than 450 yards, yet only one is over 500 yards; two Par 4s are under 400 yards.  Of the three Par 5s, two are reachable Eagle opportunities. While the Par 3s range from 189 to 223 yards. The winner will separate themselves with a few of the rare birdies on the remaining, difficult Par 4s.  With the champion expected to score somewhere in the neighborhood of -15, aggressively accurate play should win the day.

Historically, the wind has been an issue at TPC Boston. While I am not certain what to make of this, golfers have noted that there is an advantage for the longer hitters playing the back nine when the wind is blowing towards them from the South.  The forecast is calling for winds from the North on the first two days and then switching to the South on Sunday and Monday.  However, it is currently Tuesday as I write this so everything could/will change.  Here is the link to the closest weather station to the course, from my favorite weather site: click here for weather

Course History

This is a great week to utilize the much-maligned course history angle since this tournament hasn’t moved…And we didn’t have any last weekend.  Keeping with our emphasis on a data driven approach, here are the top ten golfers regarding overall Strokes Gained at TPC Boston with at least three appearances in the last four years:

  1. Rory McIlroy
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Chris Kirk
  4. Adam Scott
  5. Jason Day
  6. Matt Kuchar
  7. Keegan Bradley (Hometown course)
  8. Dustin Johnson
  9. Kevin Chappell
  10. Russell Knox

Since it is the last week of the season I thought I would offer some plays:

Dustin Johnson (12,000 DK; 19,200 FantasyDraft)

Oh…what would have been?  Would DJ have won the calendar Grand Slam this year, if he didn’t “fall” down those stairs at Augusta?  I’m not going to steal Hotmajik’s graphic, but what you saw DJ do to Jordan Spieth on that last playoff hole demonstrates why he is the best golfer ever to play the game… When he’s right.  “Necessary Chalk”

Hideki Matsuyama (10,100 DraftKings, 17,600 FantasyDraft)

He missed the cut last week by one stroke, largely because he has “Poa putting yips.”  I still think he is in the best form of anyone playing over the last 4-5 weeks.  Will he win?  Hell no.  However, you can make lineups with DJ and Hideki that don’t suck.  Also, if you’re dumb enough to play the ownership angle against DJ, Hideki’s combination of power and ball-striking could keep him close enough to take advantage of any DJ “missteps.”

Charley Hoffman (8,100 DraftKings, 14,900 FantasyDraft)

Mr. Hoffman LOVES this course (actually holds the course record). He has a 1st, 3rd, and a few T30’s to go along with two cuts. The former champion raves about how it fits his eye and that his combination of distance and ball-striking match his game play.  If Hoffman gets on a roll he is one of the few golfers who could potentially post four rounds in the mid-sixties; he’s already done it.

Kevin Chappell (8,600 DraftKings; 15,500 FantasyDraft)

If you can’t play Jason Day (9,600 DK), just take his less able doppelganger.  DFS legends and lore is filled with Jason Day and Kevin Chappell sightings; finishing “1”  & “2”.  Chappell desperately wants to be part of the President’s Cup team, However, if he wants to manifest destiny; he’s going to need a strong showing this week.  Charley Hoffman and Chappell are vying for the last spot on the team, and I expect them to both be near the top of the leaderboard come Monday.  Also, great course history with a T8 and a T12 in the last two years.  (If you read between the lines here, you see there are two plays here.)

Harold Varner III and Hudson Swafford (6,800 DraftKings; 12,400 and 11,600 FantasyDraft)

When you’re jamming Deki and DJ into your lineups, these are two of the better bargain basement options.  Both have played here before and haven’t missed the cut.  They possess the distance, recent form, low ownership, and ability to put up numbers (aka birdies) that you’ll need to take down GPP’s this week.