We really gotta check Jazzraz for PEDs. This run is ridiculous! Our boy cleaned up again this week, laying waste to competitors everywhere. Great season for a great player.
Personally, being overweight on Justin Thomas (The Open, Travelers, Quicken Loans) and Louis Oosthuizen (Bridgestone, The Open) has been responsible for some big tournament misses for me lately, which unfortunately had me on less of both. I still had around 15% Louis, but had been much more aggressive with him the last few weeks. For reasons I’ll mention in the next paragraph I was completely off Thomas. Recency bias gets everyone, always keep it in mind. Big shares of Kisner and Moli kept it interesting, and I did sweep most of my H2Hs, which helped make up for misses on guys like RCB and Sergio in tournaments.
The crew at Fanvice was able to correctly identify how hard the course was going to play, which put us at a big advantage from the jump. Member of the team CarlMarks first pointed out a couple major changes to the rough to me, and as I dug in it became pretty clear that missing fairways was going to be more of a problem than it traditionally had been at Quail Hollow. This mostly played out, although certain players like Thomas and Jason Day were able to overcome this deficiency with other clubs. Oh, and Rory couldn’t hit a fairway, off all people.
Moving on, we get the last crappy tournament of the “year” this week, as we head right to the Fed Ex Cup playoffs for the next month beginning next Thursday. End of the year is tricky in golf, as there is only a week off after the playoffs before the fall series starts in early October, even though that is technically considered part of the 2018 season. Anyway…
Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, NC will host this week, and we get fun stuff like 10.4k Jason Dufner and (yikes!) 9.1k Hillbilly. This is a much different test than last week, a shortish par 70 that has usually played as a birdie fest. The fairways are around tour average width, but players are not challenging them, only driving hard on six or seven. A few of these did see a big increase in players’ average distance last year, but this is generally a trend I’ve seen. It’s as if guys are just finding out that closer to the hole is better! Both par 5s are reachable for all players, and only three of the par 4s are over 450. Last year there were a total of 22 non tee shots taken from a distance of 250 yards or more, which should give you an idea of what’s going on here. Players will really be able to take advantage of easy second shots if they keep it in the fairway. Length obviously will be helpful and there will be a ton of medium and shorter iron shots. I am less likely to target guys that excel with long distance irons, which I think is what a lot of DFS players will end up on if they target ballstriking. While this may seem counterintuitive, I think there are some notable exceptions.
I’m going to change around my pricing tiers a little this week, as I don’t love the super expensive guys or the super cheap guys for the most part. With the exception of Stenson up top and the dregs at the bottom, the talent in this field is pretty bunched up if you ask me.
Pricey (10.0+ DK):
When we have an ugly tournament like this with only one stud, the biggest question seems to be whether to jam him in or not. While I do think Henrik Stenson-11.5/17.8 is by far the best player here, I am a little worried about whether he’ll care. Apparently he is only in this field to get a 15th event on the year so that he can keep his tour card, which doesn’t sound like great motivation. If I have lineups with extra salary great, but I’m not actively targeting or starting any with him. Also a guy like I mentioned above that really separates himself from looooong distance with the irons, which won’t be so valuable here.
Webb Simpson-10.0/16.5: Grades out as the best player in the field from 150-200 yards, and his lack of distance shouldn’t hurt him at this course. Carolina boy too, if you buy that narrative. I don’t care about that so much, but he has wrecked this place in the past and I think people may have some sticker shock about paying this much for him and spend the extra bucks on Stenson or Kisner.
Jason Dufner-10.4/16.3: Has a fairly similar game to Webb actually, a little longer off the tee and not quite as good around the greens. Both have traditionally sucked at putting, which may prevent the nuke upside, but Duf seems awfully safe to me.
Also, lol @ Hillbilly being 9.1, you made it!
Mid-range (8.0-9.9 DK):
Keegan Bradley-9.5/15.6: My history with Keegan is long and torrid, with heartbreak and disappointment largely outweighing the potential and the good times. Actually, I’m not sure about any good times. Anyway, dude feasts on easy courses to the tune of two strokes/tournament better compared to the field than at hard course events, he hasn’t been horrible this year, and his skills fit the place.
Ryan Moore-9.6/16.2: Doesn’t have distance or a particularly great long iron game, making him entirely suited to shorter courses. Has been hurt this year but just competed at two very tough events in a row, let’s see how he does at a course that should be right in his wheelhouse.
Lucas Glover-8.4/14.9: Another T2G darling. Should give himself the looks, let’s sink a few and we’re in business.
Ohhhh, I kinda like Danny Lee-8.7/14.8 for tournaments, too. He picked up 5% ownership at 6.6 last week and was terrible, but this is another guy who struggles at the big events. I don’t think he will be on people’s radar after a few notable turds lately.
Cheapies (below 8.0 DK):
Chad Campbell-7.9/14.9: Mr. Quietly Having A Nice Season. Campbell packs the straight off the tee, solid with the mid range irons game I’m targeting. I think that tag might put him in no man’s land, with a few more famous names a couple hundred less.
Kevin Na-7.5/14.5: Mr. Tilt The Community And Enjoy The Low Ownership. Na is probably more famous for bitching about the U.S. Open than anything he’s done on the course this year, unless you count the week at the JDC where he was a cash free square and killed us all. Anyway, he’s a premier iron player, lack of length shouldn’t hut much, and he has actually been all over the place this year, making him a pretty nice GPP play should he get his act together for a few rounds in a row.
Billy Horschel-7.7/14.8: Mr. Hope We Catch Him On A Week Where That Intensity Helps. Horschel makes for another interesting GPP play, as we’ve seen him get crazy hot this year and he checks all the boxes we’re looking for. I’m not sure Horschel is a significantly worse player than say, Kyle Stanley, who is 1600 more.
I’ll definitely take a few shots on Harold Varner-7.3/13.3 as well. Underrated at keeping the ball straight for how far he hits it, the dude has struggled with irons more than anything else. Hopefully these easy second shots give him enough looks to keep pace score wise.
Ryan Palmer: naaaaaahhh
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