Greenbrier Classic: July 6th through July 9th

Recap:

:poop::poop::poop::poop::poop::poop::poop::poop::poop::poop::poop::poop:

On to this week! Real talk though,

  1. a) good for Kyle Stanley, pretty much the only guy I was heavy on to do much.
  2. b) man that course was a bloodbath. Everyone hated it back in the day and I can’t imagine it endeared itself to anyone other than stupid David Lingmerth in its current iteration.
  3. c) I didn’t watch much with most of my lineups already shredded by the end of Thursday and this course unlikely to be played again anytime soon.
  4. d) shout to Carlmarks for a classic tweet telling the PGABogeys account to kiss off halfway through the tournament. Whoever was in charge of that account last week was buuuuuusy.
  5. e) Wanted to make a joke about how one of the only H2Hs I was winning was against jetblackx (dude is very, very, good at fantasy golf) when I got the better of him with a 1v1 difference. Looking around, it was a tough week for most of the sharps.

This week we roll into West Virginia for the Greenbrier Classic, an event that was cancelled last year due to prodigious flooding. While the course had to be replanted, the basic layout remains the same, so looking at what has worked in the past should be helpful. New greens if you are into that sorta thing, they now are comprised of bentgrass. Assuming they play slow like they have on the old version of the course, we could be looking at a pin stalking competition, especially with some rain forecasted this week. The fairways are on the wider side, with a steady 27-28 yards across at basically all driving distances. I see about nine holes where driver can be fully ripped, and I think with less punitive fairways distance should be more of a factor than we’ve seen recently. It is also really long relatively, and I still think most players snap judgement of a par 70 is that it will be more for the plodders, so we may be able to get some edge here.

Length/Fairways: Lotta long par 4s, a massive par 5, and even three 200+ par 3s. Distance will help and so will long iron play (C’mon, Kokrak).

Greens: Least 0-50 yard iron shots I’ve seen in quite some time, so we aren’t worrying about recovery/around the green skills quite as much (C’mon, Kokrak). Hunt the pin, land it 12 feet away, hit every 4th or so putt from there and you’re in business. I really think this will be the key above all else so I am looking hard for players who gain strokes from 150-250 yards out, especially at courses with softer, more receptive greens (Travelers, John Deere, Safeway, Shriners, etc…)

Weather: While the lack of par 5s hurts on the eagle chances, this is actually a course that plays pretty easy when there isn’t much wind. Nothing actionable yet, but something may well pop up so keep it in mind. The windier it is, the more likely I am to play someone like Bill Haas, the calmer the more I’m going after Finau, Phil, and the like.

On to the golfers:

Pricey (10.0K+ DK):

This is like if a major was horrible where you can make an argument for almost all of the expensive dudes, except going back to the horrible thing it’s not a great argument. Going with my thesis on long irons ruling the day, and assuming the weather plays along, I’ll most heavily be targeting Kevin Kisner-10.7/17.1, Phil Mickelson-10.4/16.6, and Webb Simpson-10.1/16.5. Each has their flaws but this isn’t a very good field and there are still some bargains, so fitting one into most lineups won’t be difficult. Reed could certainly go nuts but his short game won’t be an advantage here, and Haas I will likely increase exposure to if the wind looks gnarly.

Mid-range (7.5-9.9 DK):

Lotta plays in here that we are accustomed to seeing significantly cheaper, but it’s all relative to the field and some of these guys make for very strong plays.

I often talk about how scared I am of chalk Danny Lee-9.5/16.4 and Keegan Bradley-9.4/16.2 but I’m totally fine with both this week. The form is hard to ignore and both are designed for these aggressive to the pin holes. Will they keep hitting putts? Who knows, but they should have plenty of chances.

Jason Kokrak-8.7/14.4 has two major weaknesses. He sprays off the tee and is horrible around the greens. Well, those are smaller issues this week, and I think this price tag will scare people off.

Tony Finau-9.1/16.2: Wide fairways, bombing helps, easy greens? Eagles will be hard to come by but there will be a couple and Finau has to be the favorite to get ‘em.

Same logic for Jimmy Walker-7.8/15.2. I am definitely scared of the Lyme, but the discount in price and probably ownership due to everyone being scared of the Lyme makes it worth some tournament shots.

Oh, and same logic for Gary Woodland-7.5/14.7, who just seems an obvious misprice. Personal tragedy has derailed his season a bit, but if he is going to regain his previous form this is a place to buy.

Cheapies (below 7.4 DK):

Didn’t end up playing much Hillbilly (Grayson Murray-7.4/13.4) last week as I got scared off by the course’s apparent propensity to hand out enormous numbers. Well, he shot 11 over on Sunday, with two snowmen and a triple. I wonder if the whole industry still was on him before everyone else now. Anyway, this course should be a much better fit (read: easier, more scoring opps), and I’m probably getting back on.

Stewart Cink-6.9/14.1: Another par 4 specialist who has been killing it on approach and struggling the closer he gets to the green. He’s having a great season and is probably this cheap because he hasn’t played here before. I’m not worried about it.

Luke List-6.4/13.1: I mean, this is definitely a price play but I don’t think it’s only a price play. Another guy that’s incredible until the last 100 yards of the hole except for some spraying issues. Allows you to afford a lot of plays that normally would be too expensive.

Oh, and there’s a guy named Kevin Shields in this field. Never heard of the golfer and am not advocating playing him but as a big My Bloody Valentine fan that Isn’t Anything  nothing.

Site Specific Values:

FantasyDraft: Jim Herman is not very good, but he is stone min and better than the next 40 dudes priced above him. Grayson at 13.4 is tough to pass up. Kokrak at 14.4 will likely make him chalk on FDraft. J.J. Spaun didn’t get it going last week, but 12.2 is kinda silly.

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FanDuel is back, with a roster of eight golfers counting for all four rounds. A potential improvement for sure, and duplicate lineups won’t be anything to worry about. However, if we say traditionally 10-15% of lineups get 6/6 through that implies around a 70% hit rate for DFS players. Add two more guys to the roster and you can halve that 10-15% for the number of 8/8 teams. We will be seeing weekend golf there sooner rather than later.

Go and get it everybody.

Find me on Twitter @andrewmbarron or in the FanVice Premium Slack @hotmajik if you wanna talk strat/make jokes/argue