Dean and DeLuca – May 25th through May 28th

DFS Golf, where we are all forced to become amateur weather people. This was another week where there ended up being a major advantage with a particular tee time, as the afternoon wave was ravaged on Thursday and similar predicted conditions on Friday never materialized . All told there was about a two stroke difference between morning and afternoon on Thursday and less than one on Friday. With wind being very difficult to project out more than a day or two, I’m coming around to the idea that if there is a clear split on a Thursday than prioritizing it is probably the way to go, as Friday can still be a long way away.

Speaking of the Byron Nelson, noted league average putter Billy Horschel went unconscious on the greens through the first two rounds, gaining NINE strokes on the field despite mediocre tee to green stats. He rode this into regressing to his personal mean over the weekend, flipping the script with excellent T2G work and blah putting. As someone I roster a bunch, it was nice to see, but I didn’t have nearly enough as I let recency bias and his four straight MCs keep me down around 10% exposure.

Some other observations:

J.B., good lord. Dude lost SIX AND A HALF STROKES PUTTING IN HIS FIRST 11 HOLES on Thursday, and by the time he turned it around it was too late. That was an all-time stretch, missing multiple sub four footers and three putting from inside 10 feet twice. Ahem. IN 11 HOLES. Kinda glad I don’t have to worry about him this week.

Nice to see Jason Day looking good, and a lot of him and An really salvaged some tournament teams for me.

Number three DK scorer Jason Kokrak was someone I sadly didn’t play much of, despite being a guy I talk up quite often. Simply didn’t have much room for him this week with a bunch of other guys I wanted to play.

Grayson Murray is a better (specifically DK scoring) golfer than person, and getting a fair amount of him at sub 1% was nice. Someone worth paying attention to, as his Twitter bone-headedness does not factor into his DK point totals even though it probably does factor into his ownership.

Speaking of ownership, I really misjudged the field in regards to one Brandt Snedeker, as a number of people seemed to have the same idea as I did that we might be able to sneak him into GPPs at single digits. I certainly wouldn’t have played as much as I did had I known he’d be up the 15% range.

WEEEEKEEEEENNNNDDD!! Honestly my week was salvaged by some sick runs on the late slate, where a 4th place finish in the 14k entry $8 tournament made up for most of my main slate transgressions. My strategy article remains up and remains my template for building Weekend Golf lineups.

Moving forward:

Here comes the Dean and Deluca Invitational, held only about 30 miles from last week’s tournament in Fort Worth, Texas. This is another par 70 with only a pair of par 5s, one of which looks pretty reachable for most and one of which looks to be tough for everyone. The extra 100 yards wrapped up in the par 5s actually makes this course play a little shorter on the whole than last week, despite being close in total distance compared to par. There are a bunch of short, non-drivable par 4s that have historically caused most players to lay up and try a 150 yard approach rather than test the hole and try to get close. Much of the field does not go for maximum distance off the tee on all but 4-5 holes, which means placement in the fairway (or at least missing in the right spot) will be at a premium. As always distance rules if you can get it, and there is even a Matt Kuchar quote pulled by the excellent futureoffantasy.com from the PGA Tour media guide. When asked if bombing could actually hurt (lol yeah right!) here:

No, no. That is always an advantage. There is no reason why length is never an advantage. You always have the ability to hit an iron. You always have the ability to play shorter. There are so many places it’s just an asset. Some people have it and some people don’t. That is, I think, never a bad thing.

Overall, this is looking like a pretty classic “test the whole bag” course, with a little less emphasis on distance and more on true ball striking. Oh, and guess what else looks bad. Yep, the wind.

 

Length/Fairways: As mentioned above, I’ll be prioritizing my accuracy metric this week as bad misses off the tee will be costly. With many players clubbing down I think it could be worth weighing ability at mega long iron shots a little more, as I do think there is an argument to be made that some of the sprayers are more able to hide their spraying ways when are using  an iron or fairway wood off the tee.

Greens: These greens are considered very small but historically there have been fewer 0-50 yard approach shots here. I think this is probably due to all the clubbing down and having straight lines to the green on the second shots, but 0-50 yard ability still rates similarly in importance to courses with a higher percentage of shots coming from that distance.  Putting as usual will be the most important indicator of DraftKings scoring, but raise your hand if you thought Billy Horschel was going to be the guy to putt the best last week.

Weather: Oh man, more wind. I’m actually going to be on a plane for our Wednesday night show this week, but make sure you tune in to hear Ben and EMac give last minute thoughts here. It will be important.

Pricey:

These write ups are DK centric, with FantasyDraft prices included. I get into the cheap guys I will use in order to buy a few of these more expensive players in the site specific values section below.

It wouldn’t be a ball striker’s course if I didn’t write up Paul Casey-10.1/16.7. He will always be right there if the name of the game is hit fairways and nail approaches. The crucial issue with him is whether or not the putts will roll, but I think he should be fine here.

I’m not likely to be heavily invested at the very top but I think Sergio Garcia-10.8/18.0 may end up being the guy you can sneak through at lower ownership as people can’t quit Spieth (putting specialist in a putting funk, think I’ll pass) and Rahm is always very popular. The Rahm fade cares me more and I’ll have some but am not likely to be as high as the field unless some things change from how I am projecting them currently.

Kevin Kisner-9.7/16.2, Jason Dufner-9.0/16.7, and Webb Simpson 9.1/15.9 all interest me. The tags are steep but all have the right game and could go nuts with a few rounds of decent putting.

Mid-range:

As I mentioned, I thought I was being super clever by playing a ton of Brandt Snedeker-8.1/15.6 last week, but he was more popular than I thought and really struggled despite a favorable tee time. I’ll be seeing if I can get more info about how his wrist is doing, but he shouldn’t be this cheap at this field if he is still the iron player he has been traditionally.

Ryan Palmer-7.9/16.2: On DK, I cannot in good conscience fade this price tag. The dude has been murdering on the approach for months now, and while he’s not a great putter he absolutely has winning upside if he hits 2-3 extra 10 footers.

Emiliano Grillo-7.8/15.7 and Lucas Glover-7.5/14.4 are both near locks to return value should they get through. Glover in particular has been steady all year and Grillo is soooo much more talented than his price tag, let’s just hope he saves his disaster hole or two for the weekend.

Tony Finau-8.7/16.2 is another interesting price tag that I may be on if he isn’t the ultra-chalk. Has some spraying tendencies but the upside is immense.

Cheapies:

Scott Piercy-7.0/12.6 went nuts with the irons last week, and is a guy that has continually popped all year for me despite lackluster results. He still putted like crap, and if he had just had a 0 SGP week he would have been T5. A very streaky player, I’m jumping on before it’s too late.

Ryan Moore-7.2/15.0 has had a few tournaments this year where he has had a tough time around the greens, but this is another solid ball striker who shouldn’t get hurt as much by his lack of distance here..

I can make a case for:

Scott Brown-6.6/12.8: One of the most all over the place guys on tour, but he can get awfully hot and is awfully cheap. Let’s hope he’s not awful.

William McGirt-7.1/15.0 and Charley Hoffman-7.3/15.2: Another two dudes I get mixed up fairly often, McGirt is shorter and straight, Hoffman longer and (a tiny bit) wild. More price plays than anything else.

I feel like the Nick Taylor-7.3/14.2 train is going to end up off the rails sooner rather than later, and we saw some signs of it last week, where a crazy Sunday on the greens masked a somewhat blasé overall performance. I’m willing to fade double digit ownership. That said,

Site Specific Values:

FantasyDraft: That 14.2 price tag on Taylor is hard to pass up over here.

J.J. Spaun (12.5), Piercy (12.6), Stewart Cink (13.1), JT Poston (12.6), and Brown (12.8) are the cheapies I will likely be mixing and matching in order to be able to pay up for the guys I really want.

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Go and get it everybody.

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