The Memorial: June 1st through June 4th
Super amped for our dude Ben Rasa taking down the Up and Down for a cool 50k this weekend. It’s been a long season and he has been putting in crazy work all year, nice to see it pay off in such a big manner. He is one of the good guys, but he backs it up with some nasty game.
The FanVice crew crushed in general last week, with one or both of us writing up 10 golfers that came T12 or better. Occasional contributor and all around solid fellow Renaissance punk Christian AKA CarlMarks had some great calls too, and a bunch of you readers had some really sick teams. Let’s keep it rolling!
This week we head to Ohio for Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial Tournament, at a 7400 yard par 72 with a stacked field, wide fairways and incredibly fast greens. The fairways should allow for some wiggle room off the tee for our more wild friends, but this isn’t going to be a pure bombing course. This is because second shots into the small and quick greens are going to be incredibly important, and lack of accuracy off the tee often leads to lack of accuracy with the irons. As the course is not particularly long, the greens should be reachable for most players, and we want them as close to the pin as possible.
The other really notable aspect of this course is the amount of scoring. Last year the Memorial allowed the third most Draftkings scoring per round after the Tournament of Champions and the BMW Championship, two other events featuring loaded fields playing at forgiving venues. A hot putter will be tantamount to scoring success, so expect the unexpected.
Length/Fairways: While the fairways are pretty wide, missing them is a real problem here, with strokes gained from the rough way into negative numbers. I’m going to prefer the ballstriker types again. One can definitely rip it, with 8-10 driver holes depending on what players elect to do.
Greens: Fast and small again leads to the irons being the most important clubs in the bag. I will be all over those excel from all distances, with the biggest plus being ability from the 150-200 yard range. Some short game will help too, as greens will be missed outright or rolled off, especially if your golfer starts with a bad drive and is trying to approach from the rough.
Weather: Playing the wind paid off last week, for what seems like the first time all year. It’s a sharp angle, and just because some freak things happened to mitigate or even reverse (mudbaaaalll!!!) the perceived tee time advantages up to that point does not mean we all hadn’t been doing it right. It does look like we might finally get a wind break this week, but be sure to check back (Wednesday night show continues, but I had booked my whole trip before we started them so I am on the road for one more week) as the week progresses. Rain this weekend might make the course play a little easier, which could lead to some real fireworks, especially on the weekend only slate.
On to the golfers:
These write ups are DK centric, with FantasyDraft prices included. I get into the cheap guys I will use in order to buy a few of these more expensive players in the site specific values section below.
The gang is all here this week, with most of the top players making the trek save a few big names not coming over after the massive Euro event last week.
It’s going to be very hard to argue against playing any of the top three in Dustin Johnson-12.0/19.7, Jon Rahm-11.1/18.1, or Jordan Spieth-11.0/18.1, and I will have my shares of all of them. The amount of quality players filling out the bottom ranks makes it very easy to afford one or even two if you’d like. Not sure what else there is to say about Deej. Rahm all of a sudden has now has his irons clicking in addition to his absolutely ridiculous off the tee skills. I was kinda hoping Spieth would struggle again as I think three straight MCs would have finally turned some people off and he typically has his insane rounds on the extra slippery greens. His hot putter returned a week early and that might end up making him the most popular of all these guys, but I wouldn’t recommend a full fade regardless.
Adam Scott-9.8/16.6 and Hideki Matsuyama-10.0/17.2 are consummate iron players, unmatched by anyone here other than Mr. Johnson referenced above. Scott is probably the safer cash play (you’ll be frustrated with him once he gets to the greens) and Hideki the guy with the slate breaking upside, but I’m okay with both in all formats.
Not sure why he isn’t priced up with Scott and ‘Deki a grand higher, but with the year Rickie Fowler-8.9/16.4 is having he sure should be. A guy who is pretty good at everything but not a master of anything, his well-rounded game and silly price tag make him a cash game lock. If I’m saying this (had never been the hugest Rickie guy until this year), he’s going to be off the charts popular and potentially a nice GPP fade.
The pricing is reaaaaally out there this week, so I think that this area around 8k is a nice spot to diversify by playing some dudes that are going to seem overpriced compared to all the similar (or better) players that are a grand or more cheaper. Guys I like that don’t necessarily rate out as good values, but are excellent fits and I think will be lower owned on Draftkings:
Emiliano Grillo-8.5/14.6, Webb Simpson-7.9/15.0, J.B. Holmes-7.9/13.9, Patrick Cantlay-7.8/15.0, Scott Piercy-7.8/13.3
Also not sure why Phil Mickelson-7.7/14.8, Justin Thomas-7.6/15.6, and Kevin Kisner-7.6/15.7 are priced where they are, but they will rate out as unreal values for everyone and should carry the heavy ownership that comes along with that. Do with that what you will based on your risk tolerance.
Here it gets really crazy. This field is missing 10 or so of the super high end players that would show up for a major but it also doesn’t have another 20 or so invites/old people that would fill up the bottom and drive up the price on these players. As a result, there are over a dozen guys 7k or under that you can play, including Lucas Glover, Stewart Cink, Byeong-Hun An, Charl Schwartzel, Marc Leishman, Pat Perez, Billy Horschel, Brendan Steele, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Bill Haas, and Shane Lowry. DK is even trolling me with that Bubba Watson (6600) tag. I mean, I probably won’t, but damn that’s a nice bait job.
Given all of these options, Deej/Rahm or Deej/Spieth lineups are very easy if you want them, and a lot of people will.
Similar to the strategy I talked about in the mid-range section above, I think I kind of like going after a few guys that have upside but seem less appealing than their contemporaries, and the names here that stand out are Grayson Murray-7.0/11.6 and Scott Brown-7.4/12.5. Both are massively streaky players I’d be shocked to see more than 2-3% owned with all the options around them.
Site Specific Values:
FantasyDraft: With the sharper pricing you typically are going to need some mega bombs over on FantasyDraft and to hope for the best. My favorites options for the bottom of the roster over there are J.J. Spaun (11.8), Grayson Murray (11.6), Luke List (11.9), and Scott Brown (12.4).
Other noticeable price plays are Ollie Schneiderjans (13.7), Jason Dufner (14.7), and Phil (14.8).
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FanDuel is back, with a roster of eight golfers counting for all four rounds. A potential improvement for sure, and duplicate lineups won’t be anything to worry about. However, if we say traditionally 10-15% of lineups get 6/6 through that implies around a 70% hit rate for DFS players. Add two more guys to the roster and you can halve that 10-15% for the number of 8/8 teams. We will be seeing weekend golf there sooner rather than later.
Go and get it everybody.
Find me on Twitter @andrewmbarron or in the FanVice Premium Slack @hotmajik if you wanna talk strat/make jokes/argue