2017/2018 RSM Classic November 16th through 19th
The RSM Classic from Georgia is on tap this week, with the PGA tour using a two-course format to make things that much harder to digest. 3 of the 4 days are going to be played at the Par 70 ~7000-yard Seaside course with the Plantation Course being the other course the players will see on either Thursday or Friday. The Plantation side is a par 72 layout, so scores should be lower over there with the extra scoring holes the players will be getting. I’ll be focusing my research mostly on players who like Bermuda Greens and are accurate off the tee and with the irons, as this short course is going to level the advantage the bombers have by forcing them to go with safer clubs off the tee. Around the green game is also more important here than it has been in recent weeks, so guys with excellent short games get a boost. One thing to note is this is where many golfers train so there is an unusual number of players in the field with some local roots and favorable course knowledge.
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Pretty weak field with most of the big names not in attendance as this event wraps up the swing season. Up top we have Kisner who is part of the pact of guys who love this place and use it to train, followed by Matt Kuchar and Brian Harman. They all top out in the 11k range which is pretty pricey and is going to force you to find some value if you want to start with one of these three in your lineups. Rest of the tourney is pretty standard with a lot of the same players from last week teeing it up and hoping to finish the swing season strong and get a head start on the FedEx cup playoff.
We did not have shot tracker, so it is a little harder to see what exactly happened with some golfers. Even without shot tracker we could see that this tourney turned into a mess with weather forcing delays deep into Saturday and making the cut sweat seem endless. Benny An was terrible and he really hurt me, but I did manage to get a solid 6/6 team thru in some bigger tourneys and that was key. Was hoping that Rickie could hunt down Kizzire, but give Kizzire credit, he had plenty of chances to fold and really did a great job of finishing down the stretch as Fowler closed in. Two straight weeks of holding the lead in tourneys pretty late in the week only to have Sunday not go well, but anytime you are in the hunt on the weekend it is a good thing. We get shot tracker back this week, so cut sweats will be that much more intense.
Kevin Kisner $11.6k DK/$17k FDraft – I play to go with mostly balanced lineups with all the talent in that 9k range on DK, but Kisner up top is still in play. He absolutely loves this place and is part of the contingent of players who train or have connections to Sea Island, and it shows in his course history. He was 4th in 2015 and won the 2016 tourney here before a disappointing MC last year. He has not played since the Presidents Cup so recent form is a mystery, but I will still have some stars and scrubs lineups that pay the lofty tag for Kisner and try and find some value in the lower price ranges. If you prefer more recent form and less course history I would look to Brian Harman who is coming in hot, but has a worse track record at this tournament. ** Price is more appealing on FDraft than DK **
Charles Howell III $9.5k DK/$16.6k FDraft – No this is not a typo even though you may be shocked to see CH3 not under the fade section. If you have followed me in golf for a while you know that it is an ongoing theme that under any circumstances I refuse to play CH3. There is not any particular reason why I do not like his game, but I find myself consistently fading and it rarely if ever burns me because he does not win. However, I was impressed watching him a little last week where he finished 4th and he seems primed to possibly contend at a place he has had some success at. He has never had a problem making a ton of cuts, and I think he contends this week. This is also a life hedge pick because if he gets cut then it will fuel my CH3 rants for the next 6 months.
Bill Haas $9.3k DK/$16.5k FDraft – Unlike CH3 I love to target Bill Haas and honestly expected his price to be a little higher in a field like this. Haas last year was dominant tee to green in this tourney gaining 5.7 strokes, but could not finish on the greens losing 2 strokes with the flat stick. If Haas could have just held his own on the greens he could have easily been in the hunt to win last year and his price would certainly be north of 10k. He should be able to lean on his great ball striking and scrambling abilities at this course and his price does not force you to really have to spend down elsewhere.
Bubba Watson $8.2k DK/$14.8k FDraft – No info to back this up, but it seems like Bubba is taking the swing season seriously to try and get his game back to where it should be which is contending week in and week out on tour. He has not played here before, but he should really be able to get after this course if he can avoid spraying off the tee. Even though he only gets the Plantation course once, he should feast on the short par 72 layout that it offers and like always he will outscore his finishing position. If Bubba is trending towards regaining form, this price is a steal against a pretty weak field.
Byeung Hun An $7.6k DK/$14.5k FDraft – Another regular in the article, and one that unlike Poston (who we will get to) has been frustrating to start the year. We did not have shot tracker last week, but from what we could see it looked like An struggled a lot in Mayakoba. He has no course history here and as we just saw his recent form is a little sketchy, but this is just another long term buy on the talent he has. One of the better ball strikers in this field and if he can make a few putts he will be able to contend here. Price got a nice drop too adding to the appeal, but still carries some risk given An’s wide range of outcomes.
Patrick Rodgers $7.5k DK, $14.7k FDraft – Game is trending in the right direction, as Rodgers contended last week ultimately finishing in 14th. He was T10 in this tourney last year, but similar to Haas he crushed tee to green and had an ice-cold putter. Rodgers is always lightly owned and that should continue this week making him a solid mid-range gpp play.
J.T Poston $7.2k DK/$14.1k FDraft – Three straight weeks of recommending Poston and let’s hope it goes the way the last few have gone with Poston being dialed in with two straight top 15 showings. He has been underpriced and continues to be with a tag of 7200 on DK which is just not accurate for how he is playing and the strength of this field. I do not think he will go overlooked and if he is insanely popular you can always merit going underweight since golf is so volatile, but I will definitely have Poston exposure this week, just not sure how much yet.
Brian Gay $7k DK/$13.4k FDraft – Pretty deep GPP flyer here and no chance I would use him in cash, but think as a dark horse pick Gay is interesting. He relies on the flat stick and at a short course his problems off the tee may be somewhat mitigated which is an obvious positive. He has been pretty solid during the swing season and has some course history here making him someone I will take a few shots on that should be sub 5% in ownership.
Fades & Notes
Chesson Hadley – Made a pretty impressive up and down on 18 to make the cut on the number last week, but they withdrew due to illness on the weekend. Before last week Hadley had been on fire with 3 straight top 5 showing, but his price has sky rocketed and he is priced alongside the best players in this field. I will continue to take talent over recent form, especially in the top tiers of pricing, so I will have 0% Hadley again this week.
Good luck everyone!
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