RBC Heritage April 13th-16th
Even though last week had enough excitement for the entire year the PGA tour rolls on stopping in Hilton Head SC for the RBC Heritage from Harbour Town Golf Links. This is a week where most of the top players need a break after the Masters so we will see mostly the second tier and some of the young guns battling it out which should make for an interesting DFS week.
Harbour Town is a par 71 (one less par 5 than usual) measuring out at 7,100 yards so it is on the short side in length compared to most PGA courses. It will be a difficult test for the players as this course has very small greens and the wind usually plays a major factor making hitting greens in regulation that much harder.
You are going to want to target precise, accurate ball strikers as putting the ball in the right spots is as important as distance in some situations around a smaller sized course like this. Unlike Augusta, the bombers will have to pick their spots carefully this week as you will be punished for erratic shots leading to most players choosing to club down and put the ball in the correct positions. If the wind is up, which it usually is, there will be plenty of scrambling opportunities to be had so getting those golfers who can avoid bogeys and get up and down from off the green is a big plus this week.
Unlike last week, this is a weaker field mostly filled with players who did not get into the Masters, and some of the top international players still looking to get as many PGA events under their belt as possible. With no top 10 ranked golfers in attendance the tournament is wide open which should make for an interesting week of lineup construction.
Sergioooo. That was a Masters to remember, and those final few holes were as much must see TV as any sporting event I have seen in a long time. Props to Sergio for battling back, nobody would have expected him to survive after his ugly drive on 13, but he finally broke through with a major.
I had a nice week as Sergio was my highest owned player along with Paul Casey, and if you listened to the podcast last week we discussed Sergio at length and as a possible winner at Augusta. The cut was super soft, which hurt some of my main teams as Berger and a few others I was not as high on made the cut on the number and really raised the 6/6 percentage.
I played in the Thunderdome and from Thursday thru Sunday afternoon I was basically in contention (31 out of 150 place) so I was sweating that throughout the tourney. Somehow with a few holes to go it ended up that if Rose won I would have bubbled in 32nd place by 1 point, but if Sergio won I would have cashed so it became an expensive h2h Sergio vs Rose matchup for me. Sergio pulled through, I placed, and that was an exclamation point on an awesome Masters for me.
Kevin Kisner $9,700 DK/ $8,400 FD/ $19,500 FDraft – Kisner was not great at the Masters, but he was not terrible either, making the cut and finishing in T43. Fits the mold here of a solid ball striker who does not rely on length as much as most so the short course should benefit him. Had a runner up finish here in 2015, is a South Carolina native, and if he putts a little better than last week he will be in line for a top finish at Harbour Town this week.
Bill Haas $9,100 DK/ $9,000 FD/ $19,600 FDraft – Haas is always in play when you are talking about events that are not expected to be birdie fests as his best ability is to avoid bogeys and grind out solid rounds. Good tee to green game and one of the best scramblers on tour puts Haas in play this week and with this being a weakened field I would not be surprised to see Haas among the leaders come Sunday.
Jason Dufner $8,500 DK/ $8,300 FD/ $19,100 FDraft – Honestly, I am surprised Dufner’s history at this course is not even better as he fits the mold for who should do well here. He has made 7 straight cuts here with some top 25 finishes, but never broken through to a top 10 finish. Great iron player, prefers shorter courses and is solid at positioning the ball off the tee should serve Dufner well this week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,300 DK/ $7,800 FD/ $19,300 FDraft – Cmon now was there any doubt about me using Fitz again this week to keep the streak alive of me rostering him every time he is on the slate?? Typical Fitzpatrick, he showed flashes of his amazing upside and then flashes of his dangerous erratic play last week, but I truly think he is closer to piecing it all together than ever. His putter is world class and I prefer him on tracks where he can club down and keep it in the fairway as he can get himself in trouble sometimes with driver off the tee. Ideal Fanduel Rd 1-2 play, his best round is usually his first.
Pat Perez $8,100 DK/ $7,200 FD/ $18,500 FDraft – I never play this guy, but after looking over his stats and recent form I am starting to wonder why. Perez is playing great golf this year and his 18th place at the Masters last week proves it is not just against weak competition. Perez this year has been great at avoiding bogeys, but his Birdie or Better % is also very good which is a deadly combo that speaks to his recent form.
Russell Knox $8,000 DK/ $7,500 FD/ $18,600 FDraft – This is a dangerous one, but I always try and be a week early even if it means taking a risk with a guy in poor form and Knox certainly has some risk. He has not had the 2017 I thought he would and his stats are pretty much down across the board. The one stat he is still killing is Driving accuracy and I think Knox turns it around this week. If he was in good form he legit could be 10K + here and his talent is not reflective of this price in this type of field.
Lucas Glover $7,200 DK/ $6,400 FD/ $17,100 FDraft – Love the price and love this type of course for Glover. One of the best ball strikers on tour and he has really exceled hitting Greens and avoiding bogeys this year, both of which will play huge factors this week. Putting is the wildcard with Glover, but as I say often with him he only needs to be average with the flat stick to contend due to his amazing Tee to Green game.
Kyle Stanley $7,200 DK/ $6,000 FD / $17,200 FDraft – Stanley has quieting been playing really good golf for a while now and his price does not seem to adjust especially on Fanduel. Great recent form, solid course history, and one of the best on tour at hitting Greens in Regulation is a great combination to have. At this price if he makes the cut, which I expect him to do, he should pay off his price tag with the opportunity to crush value if he is in contention.
Cheng-Tsung Pan $6,700 DK/$4,700 Fanduel/ $14,800 FDraft – Taking a shot here with a guy I have had circled for a while, but could not find a spot I liked him in. Pan caught my eye when I saw some of him during the Olympics in Rio and I have just been waiting for a spot that sets up well for the Taiwanese golfer who really is not cut out to contend on large long courses. Luckily for us this is a short course which falls right into the style Pan likes to play and I am willing to take some GPP fliers on him. I think there are plenty of mid-range value this week, but if you start your lineups with the very top tier and want a super low owned sub 7k on DK or sub 5k on Fanduel GPP punt Pan is worth a chance.
Fades & Notes
Kuchar/Henley/Sneds – Obviously these three are some of the most talented golfers in the field and I am not recommending total fades, although I probably will have 0 Snedeker and less Kuchar and Henley vs the field. I will have some lineups going stars and scrubs that use the top tier, but I will be focusing mostly on balanced lineups that start in that high 9k range and end in the low 7k range as I think that is the way to go this week.
Good luck everyone!
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