2017 Quicken Loans National June 29th through July 2nd
This week we are in Potomac, Maryland for the Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. This course has not been in the rotation since 2006 and the first thing that can derail you this week is looking at past results for this tourney, so make sure you are not trying to breakdown Congressional CC which hosted last year.
TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm is a par 70 measuring around 7150 yards. Since we have no course history to rely on we have to try and figure out what type of course this is going to be, and what key stats we should use to attack it. The course seems like you must be in the fairway off the tee or risk being in big trouble, so good drive and accurate tee shots are crucial. Good iron play is always a must to contend, and the greens are bentgrass so being able to putt on that surface is a bonus this week. There is a drivable par 4, but other than that it is a pretty standard par 70 layout with only 2 par 5’s for the players to take advantage of. Scoring should be pretty tough and unless I learn more in the next few days I will be on precise iron players who can position themselves off the tee to hit a ton of greens and setup plenty of birdie chances/avoid those big numbers.
Ehh the field is ok, not too much elite talent, but plenty of those top 25-75 ranked golfers ready to compete this week. Fowler and JT are probably the favorites and since this is an invitational we do not have the full 150 player field so getting 6/6 or 8/8 thru should be slightly easier than a normal week. Honestly after relooking at the field it really is pretty weak, but it is always an interesting challenge to play normally 7k priced golfers at 8.5k + on DK.
Was on vacation in Colorado which many of you might have saw if you watched me doing podcasts from hotel lobby’s or other random places during the week. After the cut, I was 21/45 on 6/6’s so knew I had a chance to do some damage if I could survive the MDF on Saturday. Lovemark cost me a few important teams, but other than that got thru to Sunday with a chance in most GPP’s. Sunday, I was heading to the airport as a few of my teams started to make a massive push up the leaderboard.
Sweating the teams on the plane was not enjoyable, I usually am sweating avoiding a plane crash so it was a double sweat. Right after Grayson’s ace I was in 1st 2nd and 3rd in the dogleg so was hoping I could hold on and really clean up. Brian Harman’s random eagle actually moved a team I was not even paying attention to into first and me into third. Got late in the day and my only hope to sweep everything was Spieth winning and Paul Casey birdieing the 18th. He got it to 8 feet and in typical Casey fashion missed the putt by 2 inches. Each inch cost me about 25k which was annoying, but Spieth held on and it sealed an awesome week. Finished 2nd in the 333, 3rd in the main dogleg, 1st in the second dogleg and a few other teams made some top 10 appearances. Hoping to keep this heater going for as long as I can, and hopefully Paul Casey will eventually have a good Sunday and win.
Thought Berger deserved to win, Spieth should have been in the drink multiple times, but the golfing gods were with him this week and I am sure glad they were. Not going to go on a large tangent about Rory, but he needs to get his putter situation figured out ASAP. Once he does, his Sunday round is going to become his Thursday-Sunday rounds and order will be restored in the golfing universe.
** As always keep an eye on weather and wind. If you are around Wednesday night 9 PM EST check out the deep dive show where we will update and break down the latest info we get as this article is written a few days before lock **
Ricky Fowler (12k DK, $19.1k FDraft) – Has to be considered the favorite with the way he is playing. Like most people I thought tricky Ricky was going to finally break thru and win a major, but he did not close / Koepka was a beast. Elite scrambler, basically top in all the categories you would want here. Should be popular, but Reed and JT who both also are fine plays up top should somewhat keep ownership spread.
Bill Haas $9.5k DK/$16.4k FDraft – Bill Haas might win the award for most extreme pricing adjustments. He is 9-10k sometimes and then sub 7k after he does his patented 16 par 1 birdie 1 bogey rounds for a month straight. Haas is on the upswing after a top 5 at the US Open and his grinder style fits this course. Should not be a birdie fest which helps as he rarely gets streaks, and he is a great scrambler and good tee to green. If he can keep it in the fairway and give himself plenty of birdie looks he will be in contention come Sunday.
Brendan Steele $8.9k DK/$16.3k FDraft – Think he makes a cash game lock as he has not missed a cut in forever and is just turning out solid showing after solid showing. If ownership is absurd then that is something to weigh in terms of GPP exposure, but everything lines up for another solid showing from Steele.
Bud Cauley $7.7k DK/$15.4k FDraft – Playing solid golf and awesome with approaches makes Cauley a nice play. If scrambling becomes key that could be a big problem, but if he clubs down off the tee it should lead to elevated Greens in regulation and less scrambling opportunities.
Kyle Stanley $7.6k DK/$15.3k FDraft – Could not get much going last week, but a nice price drop in a much weaker field makes Stanley an interesting target. One of the best tee to green games in the field and a decent enough scrambler to limit the damage when he is missing greens makes Stanley an appealing mid-range target this week.
Graham DeLaet $7.5k DK/$15.2k FDraft – Was on him last week in that low 7k range and after Thursday thought he was going to be the guy you needed on any team to do damage. He fizzled out to a decent finish and his scrambling abilities are god awful, so if he does not hit a ton of greens its trouble. Risk reward type of play as if he is dialed in with the irons and can avoid scrambling opportunities he has winning upside, but getting up and down is not his strength at all. Like him on Fantasy Draft as well as you do have that cushion with being able to drop the lowest score, giving you a chance to take a few risk reward type players.
Kevin Streelman $7.4k DK/$14.9k FDraft – Hopefully I am not late to the party with this guy as some people jumped on last week when he popped and came in 8th. Great recent form with 3 straight top 20 showings and stats that are solid across the board. Not sure about ownership, but would not expect it to be more than 10% with so many mid-range options to choose from.
Kevin Na $7.4k DK/$14k FDraft – Another guy I was on last week and he did not kill teams, but also could not get it going finishing in 57th. Sticking with him at reasonable price tag on a course that could fit his style of play. Solid with approaches and scores very well on par 4’s which is key on a par 70 track. Ownership should be reasonable making Na a solid mid-range target.
Grayson Murray $6.9k DK/$13.6k FDraft – Been following Hotmajik’s lead on playing this guy for the past month and mostly at sub 5% ownership. Another good performance last week, plus a hole in one, and a salary that’s underpriced might be the recipe for Grayson to actually be popular this week. He is playing great golf and the price is so cheap on DK that he is squarely in play. As the week goes on if it seems like he may be chalk that may alter my exposure level, but I will absolutely have Grayson teams.
Fades & Notes
Lucas Glover – Same story as last week where Glover was cut yet again at the Travelers. He really struggles on Bentgrass greens and until he can find some consistency I will be fading, even though he is an elite ball striker.
Good luck everyone!
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