2017 The Greenbrier Classic – July 6th-9th
With the Open only a few weeks away many players have started making the trek across the pond to get ready, but we still have some golf to be played on the PGA tour. The Greenbrier Classic in West Virginia is next on the schedule, which got cancelled last year due to a massive storm that destroyed the course. They have apparently rebuilt it with limited changes, but I still expect some adjustment period for the players.
The Old White TPC is where players will be facing off, and it is not expected to put up nearly as much of a challenge as last week, so get ready to see streaks and bonuses. Par 70 layout measuring around 7285 yards with very generous fairways, giving bombers somewhat of an advantage. The course is tree lined so if you find a way to spray it you may not have a line to the hole, but that should not come into play unless you really miss off the tee. Easy fairways should lead to a lot of greens being hit and plenty of birdie chances on these bentgrass greens. I will be focusing on birdie or better %, driving distance as long as they are not super wild off the tee, and being solid on bentgrass is another plus.
With all the European talent in Europe and some of the American talent already over there prepping for the Open we have a pretty ugly field again this week. There are a few spots up for grabs for getting into the Open with a top finish in this tourney, so motivation will be there for those players not already in. Reed, Mickelson and Kisner headline the field, but it really does not have the depth or overall talent that most weeks do. Also, we are back to the traditional 150 players so we have quite a few lower priced guys to choose from than usual.
With a new course last week, we had a bit more of a mystery leading up to lock, and it turned out TPC Potomac at Avenel was even tougher than most expected. I certainly did not realize the native areas were so penalizing and how narrow the fairways were, which was frustrating after watching some of my guys spray it all over the course. I said multiple times last week regarding Lingmerth that if he goes nuts and wins I will just have to take my medicine because I had no interest in playing him, and after Friday it seemed like that was exactly what was going to happen. Cut was brutal I only got about 8% 6/6’s thru so I knew I was in some trouble heading to the weekend.
Decided to try and salvage with a heavier weekend slate than usual for me and Finau and Na really showed up. Stanley making a move took my main slate teams from awful to just normal and between that and the weekend I had a chance to salvage and make some money. I had 0 Howell as usual so once it was a playoff it became a decent win if Stanley won the playoff and a decent losing week if he lost. So far this year in playoffs – I needed Sergio over Rose in the Masters for a good amount of money, Spieth over Berger for a ton last week and now Stanley over Howell. I am 3/3 so I am due for some regression on that front, but I will take it. Week in which I did not have much going on ended up in the black which always is a great feeling, hoping to take a different route this week because it is never ideal to have to rally on Sunday.
** As always keep an eye on weather and wind. If you are around Wednesday night 9 PM EST check out the deep dive show where we will update and break down the latest info we get as this article is written a few days before lock **
Patrick Reed $11.2k DK, $17.8k FDraft – Do not think you need to pay up for someone, but if you do I prefer Reed. He still has not put it all together, but he is churning out quality finishes and it seems inevitable that he strings together four rounds and gets a win soon. Mickelson is up there too and scores like he plays, which is wildly, so I could see the logic behind him as well from that very top tier.
Bubba Watson $9.8k DK/$16.1k FDraft – This might be a complete sucker play, but I will most likely be taking the bait. Bubba has a house here, and seems like he cares about this event more than some other non-marquee ones. Pair that with his solid results at a course that should suit his style of play and it is an interesting situation. He has been flat out bad basically the entire year so I do not know if I can say this is where he will turn a corner because he might just be broken at this point. Still, the upside is immense if he gets going so I will be taking a very close look at Bubba this week.
Tony Finau $9.1k DK/$16.2k FDraft – Going to be popular, but not sure if it is going to be just normal popular or Brendan Steele dangerously insane popular from last week. Bomber who should be able to take advantage of these easy fairways and give himself a ton of birdie chances. Stats check out across the board and the price in a weak field like this is very reasonable. Not sure how much Finau is too much and depending on how highly owned he is you may need to have a lot of exposure to get above the field.
JB Holmes $8.5k DK/$15.4k FDraft – Anytime we get a course with generous fairways JB Holmes is in play. Guy absolutely crushes the ball and if the fairways forgive some of those sprays he should be in contention to lead the field in birdies this week. Always scores well and has been flying a bit under the radar with some sub-par showings in recent weeks.
Graham DeLaet $8.4k DK/$14.8k FDraft – Hopefully third times the charm with this guy. Had him two straight weeks and he really has not come thru, but this week the course should be more of a fit. He is an awful scrambler, but with easy fairways and easy greens that should not be as important of a factor. When he gets dialed in he scores as good as anyone and he always has tremendous upside. Really hoping people have soured on him after a few weeks of letting everyone down and he can stay somewhat unpopular.
Gary Woodland $7.5k DK/$14.7k FDraft – Has not been in the field the last few weeks, but this price in this quality of field stands out. Woodland and his wife were dealing with some personal issues earlier this year, which can always be an unquantifiable factor, but seeing that he is in the field he should be ready to go. Crushes it off the tee and if he was in form he would be way more expensive than this bargain price we are getting. Usually a birdie maker which adds to the appeal and someone I will target this week in the mid-range.
Robert Streb $7.3k DK/$13k FDraft – Streb is now 4 for his last 4 on cuts and seems to be in form as we get late in the year. He was 2nd in 2015 at the Greenbrier and should benefit from these generous fairways. Both him and Ben Martin, who is also around this price point, are deep GPP options that have some upside with their expected low ownership. Streb on Fantasy Draft has a super appealing price , and can free up some salary if you go stars and scrubs.
Patrick Rodgers $7.1k DK/$13.8k FDraft – Super dark horse, had him last week on the weekend and he played well. Rodgers year has been an ugly one, but his last two weeks have showed a glimpse of hope with two solid showings. Upside is there with this guy, so is a major cut risk, but if he is only a few % owned he makes an interesting GPP play.
Trey Mullinax $6.4k DK/$13.1k FDraft – Bombs it off the tee and can score so at this bargain price he makes sense in GPP’s. Has shown he can hang in much tougher fields than this one, and is one of the better birdie makers this year on tour. With somewhat soft pricing you do not have to go down into the lower 6’s, but if you take a few top end players Mullinax makes sense as a salary relief high upside option.
Fades & Notes
Charles Howell III – I never play this guy so this is a biased opinion which we all have towards certain players. Howell came back after a few months off, showed no rust and played great, locking up a spot in the Open. Now his price is up to $9,700 and he should be still popular in a spot where I do not think his upside is elite. I do expect some rust even with last week’s showing and am looking elsewhere at that price range.
Good luck everyone!
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