2017 AT&T Byron Nelson – May 18th through 23rd
Back to Texas we go with the AT&T Byron Nelson on the schedule from TPS Four Seasons Resort in Irving TX. In terms of the field there is no way to follow up a stacked one like we saw last week at the Players, but luckily some of the top guys have decided to make the trip, so it will not be just a bunch of second tier players that we have to choose from.
The Bryon Nelson will be played on a Par 70 ~7150-yard layout which means players will have two less par 5s to score on, but both pars 5’s are very reachable so get ready to see some dark blue colors on some scorecards as eagles will be made. There is water in play on a few holes and players will face two 500+ yard par 4’s which is no easy task especially if you are not a long hitter off the tee. Like last week you want to target those elite ball strikers and players who get it done tee to green. I will give the edge to distance over accuracy as the rough does not seem super punishing if you miss the fairways, but obviously, we do not want the Andrew Loupes of the world who cannot even keep it on the screen when looking at shot tracker.
Nothing much really stands out about the field this week. It is a little stronger field than I would have imagined after a big event, with guys like DJ, Spieth, and Day leading the charge. It does not have the ridiculous depth of super players like last week did, but besides the elites there are plenty of other top 50 players ready to tee it up.
Last week was an interesting one, and by interesting, I mean frustrating and disappointing. I felt like I had a pretty good idea of who the chalk was going to be and was not super high on them, and with such a deep talented field thought that there were sub 5% guys who could really do some damage. With so much water on this course I knew variance would be high, but man it was crazy to see some of fluctuations with guys carding 8’s and 9’s out there.
The first part of that theory worked out well with Kaymer not doing much and Rahm, who initially looked just unstoppable, collapsing and getting MDF on Saturday. However, the second and more important part of finding the right sub 5% guys to target did not go as planned. Russell Knox and Horschel, had brief moments of life but overall were mostly just bad and I was way overweight since they were both super low owned. Like almost all the top end players Rory did not make much of an impact and Spieth was just all around awful. Add in Sergio getting a lucky hole in one and it is the makings of a bad week in the DFS world.
Si Woo Kim really made it anticlimactic on Sunday as he really did not falter down the stretch which was impressive for a 21-year-old. Ian Poulter coming in 2nd was as shocking as pretty much anything else that happened during this crazy week, and his recovery on 18 was awesome to see even though I am not the biggest Poulter fan.
Anyway, enough with my ramblings, new week of golf is upon us, lets jump into some plays.
**** One last thing before we get into it – Wind is a factor at this place and this is being written before tee times and accurate weather so make sure to monitor that as we get closer to lock. Me and Hotmajik are going to be hosting a show on Wednesday nights that will give updates to what we are thinking as more information will be available so if you are around come check it out ****
Dustin Johnson $12,500 DK/ $11,800 FD/ $20,700 FDraft – Highest priced guy across all the sites, and someone I have been underweight on lately, but this week I cannot employ the fade with DJ. He sets up stupid good this week and has the potential to lap the field. I do not need to talk about how good his stats are, or how insane his recent form is and he has great course history so he checks all the boxes this week. I will have plenty of teams just plugging him in up top and then moving on to the rest of the roster this week.
Jason Day $10,100 DK/ $10,500 FD/ $17,400 FDraft – Was pretty stunned to see Koepka priced over him on DK and even with him on FDraft. Last week Day did show some flashes of his dominant form from years past, but it was not sustained and he finished in an unimpressive 60th. As usual in this elite range there are a number of options up top starting with DJ, but I think this might be a get right spot for Day. He has not played here in a few years, but did win the event in 2010 and I still think is one of the four best players on the planet. With enough cheap plays down low, I will have some stars and scrubs lineups this week that start with the DJ-Day combo.
Tony Finau $9,200 DK/ $7,700 FD/ $16,000 FDraft – I did not have much Finau last week, but saw him burn a lot of people with his incredibly bad putting on Friday. Bermuda and Finau have not been a great mix historically so that trend may be something to still monitor in the future. Luckily this week it’s bent grass which should help Finau and since he burnt a ton of people last week that should somewhat lessen ownership. Great tee to green and crushes the ball off the tee so if the putter does not let Tony down he has potential to be right in contention come Sunday.
Jason Dufner $8,800 DK/ $8,000 FD/ $16,000 FDraft – Dufner is playing great and has incredibly good course history here. Not the longest hitter, but he makes up for it with great irons and still gets plenty of birdies so he can score. Like him on all sites, and prefer 1-2 rounds on FanDuel as he has shown an ability to get off to some quick starts this year.
Byeung Hun An $8,000 DK/ $7,500 FD/ $14,800 FDraft – 10/10 cuts made this year and just plays to his strengths which is his ball striking and iron game. I think he may be popular, and he really has droughts with the putter, but he is one of the safer options in the mid-range this week. Has been in contention a few times this year only to falter late on Sunday, but it is just a matter of time before Byeung Hun An gets a win on the tour.
JB Holmes $7,900 DK/ $8,800 FD/ $14,900 FDraft – This is a tricky pricing area, I think a lot of guys are in play from 8k-7.6k on DK. Holmes is at the top of that range and fits the style of golfer that I am looking to target. Crushes the ball, makes plenty of birdies and is in good form. Two bonus things that are appealing for JB is he excels when playing in the wind which may come into play and he is good playing out of the rough which is going to be common with tough to hit fairways. Depending on tee times and weather JB, Leishman, Ollie, and Woodland, DeLaet all may find their way into some lineups for me.
Sung Kang $7,400 DK/ $6,100 FD/ $14,500 FDraft – This guy is quietly playing great golf, and since his fellow South Korean just won the Players he will probably continue to get lost in the shuffle until he breaks through. Should be somewhat popular as the secret is starting to get out, but not sure the masses will be hopping on the Sung Kang train just yet. Has not missed a cut in his last 5 tourneys and has two top 10’s in that stretch as well.
Keegan Bradley $6,900 DK/$6,900 FD/ $13,900 FDraft – This might be a first for me as I am usually anti Keegan, but for GPPs this is a nice spot for him. Stats line up for this course which makes sense given he has a Win and a 2nd place finish since 2011 here. If you have rostered this guy before you know the type of risk it carries, but with this price tag he has extreme upside.
Anirban Lahiri $6,400 DK/$6,100 FD/ $12,700 FDraft – Lahiri stepped to Hole-18 on Friday needing to just not triple bogey and he was cruising into the weekend. TEN shots later he was on SportsCenter not in the top 10 and going home early. Lahiri played good enough to make the cut last week, he just lost control on one hole which as we saw can kill you at TPC Sawgrass. His form, although not great, is not terrible either, and usually outscores his placement points thanks to a lot of birdies. The price is just too appealing for me to not have exposure and the upside is gigantic if he can make the cut.
Fades & Notes
Louie Oosthuizen – Louie was awesome last week, but this price tag really is at a premium for a guy who at times just seems disinterested in playing. Stats and course history are unremarkable either way, but I would rather pay up for the very top tier or save some salary with Finau or some of those cheaper options.
Good luck everyone!
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