2017 BMW Championship – Thursday, September 14th through Sunday, September 17th
After a mini one-week break from PGA golf we are back in action with the third leg of the Fed Ex Cup. This means that the field has narrowed to only the top 70 players vying to take down the championship. Since we are down to only 70 players we have no cut this week and a short field, so we will have to adjust like we do at the WGC tournaments throughout the year.
This week players will be teeing it up at Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, IL. A par 71 layout, measuring around 7,200 yards, the course should provide a wide range of hole types and lengths for the players to attack. The course was used in 2013 and 2015 so if you are looking at course history be sure to know which years this was in play. Weather as always should determine the scoring and the toughness, but if it is calm conditions I expect scores to be low and streaks to be had early and often.
The course seems suited to any type of player, with placement being important, but also some holes where having length is a bonus. At this point in the year there isn’t much unknown with the guys remaining so I will continue to play most of my usual suspects and hope they can get dialed in tee-to-green (T2G) and hold their own on these Bentgrass greens. Being a birdie maker is also a plus this week as that will be more important than bogey avoidance since we do not have to worry about the cut.
One thing to note is that in both 2013 and 2015 dealt with some ugly and different weather conditions which may have altered how the course would play. There were some really cold conditions in 2013 and 2015 dealt with a lot of rain giving those bombers a huge advantage. It is a little early to tell what we are looking at this week, but it is worth noting that course history has to be taken with a grain of salt this week.
It is only the top 70 players left so that means we have a no cut situation. Barring a W/D your guys will get 4 rounds of golf and if they end in the top 30 of the Fed Ex point standings they get to move on to next week and compete in the finals. Four rounds mean you can take more risks, and volatile scorers are going to be important. Basically, it is weekend format golf with placement points.
Not much to report, I was up in Boston this weekend for DraftKings Opening weekend event so I did not get to see much golf and was mostly focused on opening week of NFL. There was no PGA golf last week, just Euro which was fun since the tourneys got a boost in size. Hend and Fitzy who are two of my favorite golfers came 1st 2nd so that obviously was really good for me and set it up for some good finishes in the Euro GPPs.
** As always keep an eye on weather and wind. If you are around Wednesday night 9 PM EST check out the deep dive show where we will update and break down the latest info we get as this article is written a few days before lock **
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Dustin Johnson $11.5k DK/$19.3k FDraft – Obviously Johnson and Spieth are both fine selections, but if this turns into a wedge fest give me DJ up top. He has shown this year his improvement in sticking it close after some of these monster drives and that should set up plenty of birdie looks. Can attack even the longer par 5s with his length and has shown improvement on the greens which can only help with the way he crushes the ball T2G.
Ricky Fowler $10.7k DK/$17.9k FDraft – Even when Ricky plays bad he somehow manages to rally to a very respectable finish. I am still waiting for him to put in a full 72 holes without have a somewhat blow up round and think this course should fit him well. Not the crazy upside kind of guy, but consistent as they come and should be in line for another top finish. If we get word it will be windy that should put more of an emphasis on scrambling which always gives Fowler a boost.
Jason Day $9.6k DK/$17.2k FDraft – I keep playing Day and that is not going to stop now. He scored like a Wildman last week and if he could have just held on to that magma fire rounds half way through Sunday he could have really helped, but still is putting up solid finishes. He won here in 2015 which honestly, I do not love because it is going to inflate ownership and the course was soaked that year.
Sergio Garcia $8.7k DK, $14.9k FDraft – Going to wait and see how ownership shakes out with Sergio, as I am not super interested in taking a lot of him if he is popular. Still, he is underpriced and I think going to be overlooked. He broke a putter in the last tournament so had to putt an entire round with a wood so that skews some of his recent form stats. Not someone I am jamming in, but if I decide to go more balanced on a few teams I will take a close look at firing up Sergio. On Fantasy Draft I think his price is even more appealing so give him a boost over there.
Justin Rose $8.5k DK/$16k FDraft – After some ugly showings it seems like Rose has found his usual form with two straight T10 finishes. Price is still somewhat depressed for a guy as talented as him so I will be taking some mid-range stabs with Rose. He has that all-around game I am looking for and should be able to bomb it when necessary, but also be able to excel on holes where placement is more important than length.
Patrick Reed $8k DK/$16.2k FDraft – Captain America seems back to his old form. After some frustrating times, earlier this year Reed has been dialing it in lately with some top finishes and a runner up in a major. Price is fair, he is not someone I think can crush his value, but he also should not completely kill any roster he is on. Going to fire him up on teams where I have enough upside and risk already built in and need someone who I can trust to be somewhat safe with that mid-range price tag.
Daniel Berger $7.5k DK/$14.4k FDraft – Recent form is not great, but man this price is tempting. Berger should benefit from the guaranteed four rounds and after some so so performances the ownership might not be outrageous. He is in a crowded range as there are a few other pivots I am looking at in the ~7500 range, but I feel most comfortable with Berger.
Phil Mickelson $7.3k DK/$14.2k FDraft – Had him last week when he was criminally under-owned, but with this price and his good showing at the Dell he is going to be more popular. Still, with no cut and a price in the lower 7’s you have to consider Mickelson this week. I am sure he will have a few holes with some ugly numbers, but you can survive those when you are guaranteed four rounds and Mickelson is always more likely to outscore his placement than most.
Gary Woodland $7.1k DK/$13.9k FDraft – With only 70 golfers the min salary is $6,900 on DraftKings so Woodland at $7,100 is only a few hundred above the min. Crushes it T2G, but has had some issues with the putter. Again, with four rounds im more likely to take a guy who may have some putting issues in the hope that he can balance it out throughout the four rounds and rely on the T2G game to score.
Good luck everyone!
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