THE FIRST CUT IS THE DEEPEST: WEEKEND GOLF STRATEGY & SOME PLAYS FOR THE CANADIAN OPEN
The fat has been trimmed; but I have a feeling that the FanVice crew will not be “tilt-entering” the Canadian Open weekend golf on DraftKings. Things are going very well so far for the #PGAVICESQUAD. For the most part we are going to stick with the basic “tournament long” strat and many of the same golfers that we predicted to do well from the get-go.
My strategy for weekend golf corresponds to the one laid out in @hotmajik’s initial guidebook: All the concerns about safety and cut-making are gone; our only concern is scoring points.
Who is going to score more Eagles and Birdies this weekend? You don’t get points for what place you come in and Birdies are worth 6x more than pars.
I do not, let me repeat that I DO NOT look at bogie avoidance at all on weekend golf. It would take you 6 bogies to nullify a single birdie. So, this weekend we are interested in BOB% on par 5’s, Eagles per round, ST: ATG (Strokes gained around the green).
We need to be looking for both positive and negative putting regression. If someone is putting out of their minds AND striking the ball well, which correlates to gaining strokes off the tee (OTT) and on approach (APP), I have found it profitable to ride the hot-hand. However, only if they are gaining strokes Tee to Green AND Putting; never just putting.
If a player is putting out of their mind and that is the only place they are gaining strokes, then the savvy gamer should not playing that linksman in weekend golf. Putting is not sustainable without good ball-striking.
Conversely, I am interested in golfers that have struggled putting during the first two days while gaining strokes OTT and on APP. It is much harder to fix your iron and tee to green game than it is to putt better. And putting is so much more random; you can be putting excellent but burning the edges of the cup and the ball’s just not dropping… these things can correct themselves from hole to hole; whereas fixing your long-iron game could take weeks or months. In other words, dropping the ball close to the pin tends to make people better putters.
Example from The Open: Brendan Grace at the 2017 Open made the cut but he had lost 11 strokes per round to the field putting. While not the best putter, he’s no Paul Casey. His SG: APP and T2G (tee to green) were fantastic. Therefore, we expected some putting regression. Since you were probably on him anyways; especially if you were a member at FanVice; this was a clear sign to double down on weekend golf with Grace. Long-story short: Grace broke the record for low score at a Major the following day.
Anirban Lahiri If you can get Lahiri through the cut; it’s game on. He’s the top ten in every scoring stat you can imagine
^^^ This guy…psh…I said it on the Line-Up Builder show; that he might pull this garbage.
Dustin Johnson – $10,100: I think we can safely roster DJ this week. He has regained his stroke and he’s had some tough lip-outs putting. Additionally, he is exceeding his already elite short game: OTT game by half and stroke and is bleeding strokes putting thus far vs. his season long average. Perfect spot to pay up for the best golfer in the world. I will have 100% exposure.
Stewart Cink – $7,500: The old man’s swing is on point thus far and he’s been a bit unlucky around the greens. He’ going to be out on the course early in the morning while it’s nice and soft. I look for him to make move and go low tomorrow.
Luke List – $7,500 and Harold Varner III – $7,300: These guys both score and miss cuts. They’ve made the cut, so now it’s scoring time. Varner is the better putter and he’s due for some positive regression
Tony “Mr. Weekend” Finau – $9,400: This is probably getting redundant. He is putting worse than normal and is far enough back that he is ABSOLUTELY going to have to play aggressive. This is just how we like Finau (especially when no Bermuda grass is involved).
Kevin Tway – $7,800: Destroys par 5s. I like that he will have an early tee time also. The course should be nice and soft. Tway should be in full attack mode. He’s incredibly streaky and currently holds the season long record with 7 BOB in one round.
Hudson Swafford $8,100: Like Tway, Swaff had a pedestrian second round (compared to the 65 he pasted on the field Thursday. He’s a big time scorer and I see nothing in his stats pointing to any type of negative regression.
JB Holmes – $9,000: Every blue moon a late-round double bogey is a good thing. Holmes was on a terror going into the 17th and he double bogeyed. Hopefully this dip off the main leaderboard suppresses some ownership. He’s playing fantastic golf and can overpower these par 5’s.
Seamus Power – $7,600: We’ve all been waiting for this kid to have his breakout tournament. He probably won’t win but expect to see him near the top of the leaderboard. His current form is entirely sustainable for this tournament.
Danny Lee – $7,800: Dear Danny, I forgive you for that shit you pulled at the John Deere. It looked humid and hot; and you probably needed a rest after that great run you made to start the Summer. After round one at this weeks RBC, I was starting to think that you were just a punk who was about to quit again; you can’t blame me: you had a quadruple and a double bogey; real similar to the Deere. But you hunkered down and got back to even a the end of the day…And then you made the cut. You should teach Lahiri about perseverance, he’s afraid to finish things. Anyways good luck this weekend. Your biggest fan, Stan
FADES: Martin Flores, Vijay Singh, and everyone beneath them till we get to Gary Woodland. All of these guys are putting out their minds and most of them are losing strokes in other key categories.