NHL Power Plays 3/22/18

We have a very healthy 10-game slate ahead of us so let’s not waste any time getting to it.

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Dylan Larkin – DET vs WSH

DraftKings – $5,200

FanDuel – $6,100

Very quietly, Larkin has put up a solid third-year season with 11 goals and 53 points. That’s on a team currently sitting at 28th in goals per game, lower than both Carolina and Vancouver. There is a good argument he should be even better than those 11 goals and 53 points, though, seeing as he’s shooting just 5.3 percent (he shot an even 10 percent over his first two seasons). If he shot his career average, he’d be at 20 goals and his season would look stellar.

Larkin is a solid shot-volume player at this point of his career with his individual shot attempts per 60 minutes at five-on-five (16.47) putting him in the same range as players like James Neal (16.55), Tyler Seguin (16.52), and Auston Matthews (15.73). Larkin is also in the top-25 among forwards league-wide in five-on-five ice time per game, which turns the shot volume into a reasonable floor.

Washington coming to town is a good matchup for the Wings in general; since the All-Star break, the Capitals’ adjusted shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five is sandwiched between Arizona and Buffalo. Only Evgeny Kuznetsov’s line has been passable defensively and there’s a chance he may not even play. Even if he does, Detroit mixes up their line matching enough that this particular matchup wouldn’t be a huge concern.

I understand the hesitation for using any Detroit player at this time of year but the ice time is there, the shot volume is there, and the matchup is a good one. Larkin is certainly more of a target as a one-off in tournaments than as a cash game target.

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