NHL Power Plays 1/6/18
First things first, it is a Saturday where a few teams are on the back end of a back to back. Expect a little craziness this evening. It’s just a seven game slate this night. Let’s not waste any time.
A bit of news to pass along to the readers – at time of writing, it looks like there is much intrigue to this slate. From Tampa Bay and Ottawa to even New York and Arizona, potential exists for a decent scoring night. Does it all pan out? That is the question.
Injuries have had a real, tangible impact. Goalie confirmations for quite a few will come later in the day. The main slate starts at 7:00 pm ET. Anyway, let’s see who may be a little tired.
Teams On The Back End Of A Back To Back
Let’s get into the centers of attention on this night. There will be more emphasis on values. However, in our picks, there will be more of the usual choices. The goal is to mix more value in this evening.
Derick Brassard (Elevated risk on FanDuel)
$4200 on DK
$5900 on FanDuel
$8500 on FantasyDraft
There is something about the inherent risk being so high. Brassard exploded out of the gate with six goals and ten points in his first ten games. Then the opportunities dried up and the goal drought reached 20 games. Brassard has a rather low floor and often has game where a shot maybe two is the norm. However, he has had success against Tampa Bay and shot volume has returned (ten shots in last two games. Brassard is an offensive player who must keep hitting the net to be effective. The minutes and chances will be there.
This is purely a tournament play on DraftKings simply due to the price. Brassard hit value the last two games, including last night. If one is looking for something different, peak at Boston’s second line. Projections are for a higher event game here unexpectedly and that second line could drive some chances against Carolina’s depth. Also note, several players from Ottawa have significant price discrepancies tonight (see Hoffman, Stone, etc.).
Derek Stepan (high risk)
$4500 on DK
$5700 on FanDuel
$8500 on FantasyDraft
The Rangers and Coyotes have an expected goals that is approaching 5.75 but still rising. Stepan is a good play on this night because more ownership will be on other action. The idea is that Stepan is going against more of the Rangers depth There is risk as Stepan also suffers from suspect shot volume problems and individually does not create chances like a top six center should at times. Sometimes he goes into bursts where 4-5 shots is more normal.
For DraftKings, a one-off or mini stack here is not bad. There are so many options to consider. Remember that this game could be a wild one. Even Nashville and Los Angeles could surprise but do not hold one’s breath.
Others To Look At: Steven Stamkos (getting chalky to CHALK, Anze Kopitar, Patrice Bergeron (CHALK), Matt Duchene, Auston Matthews, Kyle Turris, Ryan Kesler, Sam Gagner (under-owned likely), Brayden Point, Nathan MacKinnon (near chalk). (Many more picks in Slack).
Value Crazy: Patrik Berglund, Kevin Hayes (higher risk), Riley Nash (Low Risk).
$4500 on DK
$5100 on FanDuel
$8800 on FantasyDraft
Heinen is hot with six points in his last four games. Furthermore, the Hurricanes just shut out Pittsburgh but typically allow three goals a game plus on the road. The winger now has 28 points in 34 games on the season and has to be among the many candidates for the Calder Trophy. For daily fantasy, his price has risen closer to his production point but is still a good choice. His shot volume and floor are increasing gradually. That Boston second line is so cheap to stack when looking for price relief in GPP’s especially.
The winger can be used as a one-off or part of a mini-stack. The key in our spotlight here is to look at plays that could hit value easier and leave the chalkier picks at the bottom. Projected ownership for the winger could be above 5%, however. It just depends on how many gravitate to some of the other match-ups. Heinen could be paired in a lot of ways with say Charlie McAvoy or even someone on the Boston power play. Even a regular line stack could work like previously mentioned.
Tyler Toffoli (moderate risk)
$5100 on DK
$5600 on FanDuel
$10,600 on FantasyDraft
There are risks and this is one because of the expected goals for being just a hair above five. Nashville is stingy on the road and Los Angeles does not give up much anywhere. That is the recipe for disaster? Right? Maybe wrong. The Kings do allow chances and honestly so does Nashville. These are teams that can create shot volume and the Predators may force Los Angeles a bit out of their comfort zone (see Vegas as an example).
Yes, there are some value options to take advantage of as well. Toffoli has 123 shots in 39 games played and the scary part is he could shoot more. The winger missed Jeff Carter a lot in the early going but has righted himself and fantasy owners are being rewarded. His speed could match up well against Nashville so expectations are high while ownership should be less than 5% here. Brock Boeser would be a nice backdoor risk here but a little higher priced. Keep that in mind. The thing is most know Toronto will yield chances.
Others To Look At: Nikita Kucherov (20%+ ownership very possible), Brock Boeser (his goal rate almost rivals Ovechkin early), Taylor Hall, Kevin Fiala (moderate risk), Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm, Mark Stone/Mike Hoffman (moderate risk), Tyler Johnson, Mitch Marner, Rickard Rakell, Johnny Gaudreau, Brad Marchand (chalky), Gabriel Landeskog. With lineup shifts likely, more will be on Slack and social media.
Stone Cold Crazy Value: Anthony Duclair (bottom six dangerous risk), Ryan Dzingel (high risk), Joel Eriksson-Ek, Tyler Ennis (risky – watch ice time), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (pure punt). More choices available later on slack and cheat sheet.
Patrik Nemeth (Risky Floor Play)
$3500 on DraftKings
$3700 on FanDuel
$7000 on FantasyDraft
It is a game that should have DFS players salivating at least a little bit. The shot blocking potential is too much. Nemeth’s value has also exceeded value in six of his last eight games. His production is about 10% above value on DraftKings and 15%+ on FanDuel where he gets less than $400 per point. Nemeth can provide some offense and with Tyson Barrie still out, the defenseman will get some power play time.
For Nemeth, the points per dollar is just exceeding value so much at this juncture. Again, his ability to block shots and provide offense is too much of a bonus to pass up. The defenseman has generated the second highest chances among Colorado defensemen in his last six contests. Some may even consider Ryan Ellis if they are looking for other contrarian possibilities. Ellis and his ice time are not up to normal yet but he creates more per 60 than any Nashville defensemen with that shot.
On FanDuel, there are quite a few higher priced options and the same on the other platforms. However, this is an easy price to take which will allow one to spend up everywhere else. That is not the only “value” option, however. There is risk here as some teams could dud. The prices across the board are optimal on this slate for a near punt play (on DraftKings). There is lot of value to choose from. Consider how many mistakes both teams make, and their points allowed to defensemen. There is plenty to choose from in what could be lower owned. Tonight is a night where being a little off the beaten path may be just fine.
Others To Look At: Victor Hedman (Chalk but could spend down to Mikhail Sergachev), Erik Karlsson (near chalk), Noah Hanifin/Justin Faulk (some risk), PK Subban (some risk), Kevin Shattenkirk (rising ownership), Jared Spurgeon, Morgan Rielly, Charlie McAvoy, Cam Fowler, Jake Muzzin (if one does not want to spend up to Drew Doughty). (More on Slack to come).
Stone Cold Crazy Value: Jacob Chychrun (do not sleep on him), Cody Ceci/Dion Phaneuf (unrested, block shot potential), Derrick Pouillot (high risk possibly), Jaccob Slavin. Alex Goligoski (moderate risk),
Note the FantasyDraft prices for goaltending. Speaking of strategy…
For those that haven’t made their way to FantasyDraft.com, it’s a daily fantasy site that does things a touch different than DraftKings and FanDuel. Their biggest wrinkles are the double utility position which allows for more line stacking creativity, the one defenseman slot, and team goaltending.
Team goaltending is so nice simply because it is the one position where if you screw up, that’s okay. It does not matter if the backup or starter goes because at least points can still be accrued. Usually, the last choice is goaltending, even on FantasyDraft.
Scoring is right here. This is what it looks like.
On this particular slate, I wouldn’t worry about goaltending until the end. There are enough teams in good positions where setting the rest of your lineup construction is far more important.
The Ottawa/Tampa Bay and even Arizona/New York games could be targeted heavily err maybe should. With the expectation of a high shot, goal, and chance count, a select few are going to try this. On FantasyDraft, it is less risky because of those two utility spots and one defenseman slot. That hurts less if something goes wrong. Options are good. Right?
Watch for injuries and player news. See who plays and who gets shifted around because of it. Looking for the lower scoring match-ups is essential for picking goaltending. Chasing the win is not as important as chasing saves and a quality start (two goals allowed or less).
Power play stacks could be on the spotlight on FantasyDraft. New York and Boston could be good options. Tampa Bay and Colorado in all situations is another good idea. There are some risks that one can go on FantasyDraft because of the double utility format like yes, a double center stack.
Boston is also one of the interesting targets tonight. Their risk is high, but potential exists (Carolina allows the fourth most points on the road to goalies and forwards). Vancouver will be a decent pick with increased production and low expectations. However, do not forget the following lines. There will be a lot more on Slack during the day and tonight.
Lines Du Jour?
TBL 1 (CHALK)
NYR PP 1 (Could slide downward later)
CGY 1 (may just be low owned enough)
BOS 2 (BOS 1 higher owned but can be used)
LAK 2 (Some LAK PP 1 is a good idea in a lineup or two)
TOR 1 (watch lineups this could trend upward)
NSH PP 1 (Risky as hell but too good of a man advantage)
CAR 1 (Like Skinner however once more)
MIN 3 (Crazy but could work as Coyle and Parise have solid chemistry and metrics – watch line shifts)
Good luck tonight. There will be more information to come on Slack and Twitter. Again, the emphasis is to watch out for all sorts of chances and please note. Watch for beat writers. Get a second confirmation or even third for some situations. The key on this slate will be to ride the wave and try not to get burned. Also, all goalie confirmations and plays will be on Slack and social media later this afternoon. Hunt for the opportunity like Antti Raanta is high risk but so low priced on DraftKings and FantasyDraft that the risk could be worth it.
Finally, we included some price discrepancies in our spotlight picks on Saturday. Please note the usual DraftKings “venue pricing” for goalies. That is very important. Social media will be vital this evening more than usual because of the high volume of injuries and line shift news. Thanks for playing and good luck!