NHL Power Plays – 3/6/17

It’s Thursday night and you know what that means… Mega slate Thursdays!  Tonight is no different with ten games on the docket.  The Ottawa Senators are the only team playing on a back to back tonight, and they are also playing their third game in four nights and also their fourth game in six nights.  It’s going to be tough to target them, but they have a decent matchup against the Coyotes.  The only other semi-unrested team is the New York Rangers, they had a night off but they are playing their third in four and fourth in six nights.

When you are making you teams I can’t stress enough that you need to make sure your goalie is actually confirmed and starting.  Sites like Dailyfaceoff.com, Leftwinglock.com, and Goaliepost.com are great places for information but they tend to not be as quick because it’s the weekend.  Another great place to get up to the minute news and information is the teams and beat writers for the teams themselves.  I have created a list on Twitter @Votts_DFS for all of the NHL teams, and a separate list of all the beat writers for you to follow; it’s a great tool and a necessity.  Now let’s dig into the slate and see if we can find you a couple plays to help you take down that big GPP.  Here are your Power Plays for tonight, good luck!

The advanced stats that I use and reference in this article come from Corsica.hockey and also puckalytics.com.

If you have any questions at all, don’t hesitate to contact me on out premium Slack chat, or you can hit me up on Twitter @Votts_DFS.

Full Schedule for Thursday March 9th, 2017

AWAY HOME TIME
NY Rangers*Carolina7:00 PM
MinnesotaTampa Bay7:30 PM
PhiladelphiaToronto7:30 PM
AnaheimChicago8:30 PM
MontrealCalgary9:00 PM
New JerseyColorado9:00 PM
Ottawa*Arizona9:00 PM
NY IslandersVancouver10:00 PM
NashvilleLos Angeles10:30 PM
WashingtonSan Jose10:30 PM

BOLD = Back to Back

*Third game in four nights

Pricing is in DK format unless otherwise noted.

CENTERS

John Tavares – NYI @ VAN – $7,100

Tavares has been one of the three bright spots for the Islanders this year and he is carrying a massive load for the team.  He is averaging a point per game over the last ten games, and the matchup should be interesting tonight.  I’m not sure what way the Canucks will go with the matchups but either way I like Tavares.  Vancouver gives up a pretty healthy amount of shots on net per game (30.7 SA/60).  Both teams are poor puck possession teams and something has to give tonight and I’m leaning on Tavares making a difference.  Anders Lee makes for a solid play as he and Tavares work pretty well together and they are matched up on both even strength and the power play.

Austin Matthews – TOR vs PHI – $7,500

Matthews has gone pointless in three straight games, but tonight he could be in a spot to break out of it.  The Leafs lost five in a row but they beat Detroit last game and seemed to have found their offense again.  Matthews has a ton of talent and he has multi point upside every night.  The last time these teams met in Toronto, Matthews got plus matchups all night pretty much as the Kadri line matched up with the Giroux line and the Bozak line matched up with the Couturier line.  Granted the Flyers has shuffled lines since then but I still see coach Babcock deploying Kadri against the top line of the flyers  and trying to sneak Matthews away from Couturier.  If the leafs can bring their potent offense we all came to know tonight, Matthews could be in a good spot.  Philadelphia has been having a rough time on the penalty kill on the road with a 78.4% kill rate, which is 23rd in the league.  This game could have some fireworks in it and playing both sides could be a profitable endeavor.

Sean Monahan – CGY vs MON – $5,500

Don’t look now but the Flames have caught fire… no pun intended!  Calgary has won seven straight and they are just one game shy of a franchise record.  Monahan could make for a pretty solid sneaky play tonight along with Johnny Gaudreau.  The Flames will get last change, so they will deploy Backlund line to shut down the Pacioretty line, leaving Monahan and Gaudreau to match up with the Galchenyuk line.  The Habs have been without a key player Alexander Radulov and he looks like he will be out again tonight, which only helps the Flames.  Montreal has been abysmal on the road killing penalties with the four worst kill in the league at just a 75.2% kill rate.  The Habs usually do a decent job of limiting chances and it helps they have a great goaltender, but even his play has been suspect.  With the Flames riding high on confidence, I think Monahan could be sneaky.

WINGERS

Patrick Kane – CHI vs ANH – $8,000

Kaner has a ridiculous 17 points in his last ten games!  He has recorded a point in seven of those ten, and every game he recorded was at least two points.  The Hawks have been red hot winning seven straight and they have won 12 of their last 13 games, even dealing with injuries to some key players.  A large part of it has been Kane but also Jonathan Toews has finally come to life and he has played phenomenal of late also.  Tonight’s matchup is not one that people will be seeking out, as the Ducks have been pretty decent limiting chances and shots, but… The Ducks are giving up the second most power plays per game in the league, giving up a hair short of four per game and against the Hawks that could kill you.  Post All-Star break the Blackhawks have the second best power play in the league, and you can look to Kaner for the reason why.  Kane can be stacked a couple ways but one way that I think could be off the wall would be to stack him with Jonathan Toews.  Hear me out, Kane tends to get double shifted and anytime the Hawks need a jolt of offense, Coach Joel Quenville will put Kane and Toews together because they have chemistry.  They also play on the power play unit together.  I don’t think many people will play those guys together and that’s just a way to try to be different as Kane could be higher owned.

Wayne Simmonds – PHI @ TOR – $6,200

Simmonds is having a breakout year and has played some solid hockey so far.  He has gone pointless in three straight, but tonight could be a good night to break that.  Toronto has a high octane offense, and Philadelphia likes to push the pace too so this game should be a very good game to watch.  The Leafs are a young team with a lot of talent but they tend to make a lot of mistakes and have costly turnovers.  Toronto is giving up 32 shots on net per game at home, along with 8.38 SCA/60.  The Leafs special teams has also taken a hit as they now sit 18th in the league with an 80% penalty kill.  This game could have fireworks and I will definitely own a share of this game stack.

Mike Hoffman – OTT @ ARI – $5,900

The Senators are an intriguing yet risky play tonight because they could be dealing with fatigue issues.  Ottawa is playing on a back to back, third game in four nights, and their fourth game in five nights.  That could also mean they carry less ownership, but they are playing the Coyotes.  Arizona has been a better team at home, but they are still a good team to pick on.  The coyotes are giving up the third most shots on net at home (33.5 SAA); they are also giving up the just shy of three goals per game.  Their penalty kill has gotten better at home, but they lack any type of depth to match up with the Senators tonight. Hoffman has been a steady producer of offense and he has a solid shot volume.  Hoffman also see time on the top power play unit where he has a power play point in each of his last two games.

Jordan Weal – PHI @ TOR – $3,700

Weal makes for an interesting punt tonight as we need to save some salary to pay for the studs in good spots.  Weal has come on strong lately averaging three shots on net over his last five games.  Weal has also been playing on the top line with Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds.  Weal also has been on Coach Dave Hakstol’s good graces because his ice time has jumped up at a pretty good size and he is also playing on the second power play unit.  For 3.7k you can ask for much more.

Jason Pominville – MIN @ TB – $4,600

Pominville makes for a solid value play tonight as the Wild have shaken the lines up a little and made a new fourth line containing Charley Coyle – Eric Haula – and Pominville.  They should be able to dominate the depth lines of Tampa Bay and get tons of opportunities and grade “A” chances.  Also Pominville gets time with the top power play unit and gets you exposure to the top line.

DEFENSEMAN

Erik Karlsson – OTT @ ARI – $7,200

Tonight is a weird night where the top defenseman all have “meh” matchups and I’m not looking to “jam” any of them in my lineups, but Karlsson could be one guy that I would pay up for tonight.  The match up against the Coyotes is great for Karlsson.  He carries a lot of the load for the Senators and he quarterbacks the top power play.  The Coyotes love giving shots up and Karlsson loves to shoot.  Karlsson is averaging over 6.5 SHOCKS (shots & blocks) over the past ten and that a solid floor to start with.

TJ Brodie – CGY vs MON – $3,900

Brodie has been great during the Flames seven game win streak; he has five points in his last four games.  Brodie started the year out really slow and his shot volume was way lower than normal, but he has come around and has been firing on net with some regularity.  Brodie is also not afraid to get in the way of shots to get blocks either and they only raises his floor…  Brodie also sees time on the top power play unit, and the Habs have been pretty bad killing penalties on the road with a 75.2% kill rate (27th).

Jake Muzzin – LA vs NSH – $4,300

Muzzin isn’t a point monster but he does have points in two of his last four games, with one of them being a multi-point night.  The promising thing I like about Muzzin is that his shot volumes have come up and they have been pretty consistent over the past couple games.   He also see’s time on the top power play.  Nashville has been giving goals up in the bucket load, out of their last five games they have given up at least three goals or more.

GOALIES — (CHECK CONFIRMATION)

Thomas Greiss – NYI @ VAN – $7,400

Greiss makes for an intriguing GPP play tonight as he is on the road but he takes on the Canucks, who don’t like to score a bunch with a 2.27 GFA on the year.  The question is shot volume and I think it will be there for him tonight because the Islanders lack depth and they have been allowing over 33.5 shots on net per game on the road this year.  If the Isles can muster up some offense, and I think Tavares and Lee can, then Greiss should have a great showing on the road.

Mike Smith – ARI vs OTT – $7,100

This is a farfetched dart throw tonight but it could possibly be a great night for Smith.  Ottawa is playing on a back to back, their third game in four nights and their fourth game in six nights.  The only problem is that the Senators have been playing good hockey.  The one thing that could help them is that Craig Anderson was between the pipes last night and they might have to go with Mike Condon tonight, who’s has not been good at all.  Smith has games where he saves everything, and if he can throw one of them up tonight and get a little offense to help him, he could have a massive night.