NHL Plays 3/20/17
There are five games on Monday. Let’s get cracking on this edition of NHL Power Plays.
What Went Wrong?
Sadly, Scott Darling forgot he was playing the Colorado Avalanche. He wound up allowing three goals on 25 shots in the 6-3 win. Again, we feared a low to moderate save count. It did come back to bite many in cash games. Carey Price was the better play with 30 saves and one goal allowed as Montreal swept Ottawa in their home and home. Things did not go well for Jonathan Quick or even Steve Mason. Mason got the win but did allow three goals. Philadelphia’s first line was nowhere to be found but the Sean Couturier line was. Nothing in the data indicated that as sometimes these things just happen.
What Went Right?
Hey, picking for early goalies worked as both Marc-Andre Fleury and Sergei Bobrovsky played very well in net in big wins. The top Calgary line struck for three goals while Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton both had points. Paul Byron had two points (all he does is show up for timely points) and Chicago struck five times in the third period against the Colorado Avalanche. The chalk donkeys, as we mention often, from Chicago rallied in the final twenty minutes. It is also worth mentioning the Minnesota-Winnipeg game as Minnesota rallied from a 4-0 deficit only to lose in the third period. Blake Wheeler and Mathieu Perreault both had two assists in the win. However, it was a case where goals were going to come spread out and the over hit emphatically.
The Schedule For Monday, March 20, 2017
|San Jose||Dallas||8:30 PM|
|Los Angeles*||Edmonton||9:00 PM|
* = Back end of back to back. @ = Third game in four nights.
News And Notes (Well More Notes)
Like we mentioned before, FanDuel and DraftKings are running a main slate of five games starting at 7:30 PM ET. Here are some possible FantasyDraft Value Plays for tonight.
FantasyDraft Value Plays:
- Calle Jarnkrok (NSH) — $7200
- Christian Dvorak (ARZ) — $7200
- Joel Ward (SJ) — $7500
- Justin Abdelkader (DET) — $7100
- Esa Lindell (DAL) — $6900
- Zdeno Chara (BOS) — $7700
- Detroit Goaltending — $15,200 (it’s still high risk!)
Quick Plays (DraftKings pricing is used)
Patrice Bergeron – $7100 – BOS vs TOR
Bergeron is still a chalk play in cash and even in some GPP formats just because most will concentrate on Boston’s first line and rightfully so. Bergeron has 13 points in his last ten games and is setting up arguably the hottest player in the league right now in Brad Marchand. Their first line is second in the league at generate scoring chances per 60. If Bergeron cannot go, David Krejci will get the call up to the first line and that will then become a major play.
Henrik Zetterberg — $6300 – DET vs BUF
Zetterberg is a nice GPP play and cash option against Buffalo on Monday. The center had two assists on Saturday but could not quite convert on his scoring chances. Despite this, he had 12 points in his last nine games on decent shot volume. His attempts again have been impressive as well. Detroit plays better at home and draws a good match-up against a Buffalo team that will give up chances and has around a 75% penalty kill on the road. Some may pivot to Jack Eichel if the money is there.
Anze Kopitar — $5300 – LA vs EDM
Kopitar is a high risk GPP play on Monday against Edmonton. His improved play on special teams must be noted but his shot volume is just so erratic. The chances are there but too many shots wind up missing the target. Edmonton has a mediocre penalty kill so if Los Angeles could draw some penalties, that may be a good source of offense. There is a good reason why the chalky plays are going to be heavily owned in Ryan Johansen and especially Connor McDavid. There is very little depth in value at the center position.
Viktor Arvidsson — $6400 – NSH vs ARZ
Arvidsson is a super chalky play in tournaments and yet the temptation is extremely high to play him anyway. He has nine points in his last ten games which includes six goals. The winger has around 30 shots over this span and is Nashville’s best attempter of shots and chances. He is slightly less expensive than Filip Forsberg at least. Both wingers have basically the same stats and metrics in their last ten games. They create tons of trouble for defenses with their speed and craftiness. Arizona could have a long night here and expect over 25% ownership in some formats.
Evander Kane — $6200 – BUF vs DET
Kane will be an intriguing GPP play on Monday against Detroit because the expectation is for this to be a moderately high event game. Most will still steer clear of this one and run right to Nashville and Arizona or even Boston and Toronto. However, Kane has seven points in his last ten games. The quirky part is he has four goals on his last 46 shots on net. His season percentage is higher which could mean goals are due to come. Also, Kane’s ownership will be lower than players like Brad Marchand and maybe even Leon Draisaitl.
Tomas Tatar — $4900 – DET vs BUF
Tatar is going to be moderately owned in tournaments tonight because he is a lower cost alternative to so much of the chalk tonight. He has ten points in his last ten games but also will draw excellent match-ups most of the night. The forward has six goals in his previous nine contests on around 2.5 shots per night. This is a case where ownership will elevate because everyone is keyed in on Buffalo’s penalty kill. Honestly, who could blame them at this point?
Torey Krug – BOS vs TOR – $5100
Krug is a decent GPP play tonight against Toronto. He has eight points in his last ten games and Boston-Toronto games almost always are high event hockey. The problem is will those chances get converted? That is always the question. Some will switch towards Morgan Rielly who provides about the same production for a little bit cheaper. The difference is Krug is more prevalent on the power play which Toronto’s penalty kill has been a little weak of late.
Rasmus Ristolainen – BUF vs DET- $5500
Ristolainen sits at a high-risk level tonight and is in play in GPP’s and Cash games. He has looked better of late with six points in his last ten games including some contests where he has had an improved floor. One can go with the super chalk plays in Roman Josi and Brent Burns. That would be understandable. Detroit and Buffalo could crash and burn or be higher scoring. There is little middle ground here. This is a total roll of the dice. Another one might be Mike Green or even John Klingberg.
Cam Talbot – EDM vs LA – $8000
Talbot should be a good cash play wise with the hopes of a low goals allowed and the high chances of a win. The Kings only score 2.11 goals per contest on the road. There is a concern with Edmonton’s penalty kill. Make sure he starts first. Los Angeles is on the back end of a back to back but do they show more urgency here? Calgary held the Kings to 21 shots last night. The expectation is Los Angeles fires a few more shots on net tonight. For GPP’s, look elsewhere and wait till later in the day.
If for whatever reason, you are a little queasy on Talbot then wait a little closer to confirmations. A lot of confirmations did not come in early. Tonight’s a night where one could even go with backup options but will they get the W? That is quite a question. This is the type of slate where risk could be rewarded with the right mix of chalk plays. Watch out for any late changes as well due to the flu and other illnesses. It has been a factor of late.
There will be lots more on Twitter as always. Do not be afraid to ask the tough or the easy questions. You can follow me @ChrisWasselDFS on the social media. Good luck with tonight!