NHL Power Plays – 12/18/16

We end the week of NHL this Sunday with a small split slate, which are really tough to play.  It would be nice if the sites would do an all day slate to make up for the shortage of games, but that’s too much to ask for I think.  Anyways, when we approach small slate games with only a couple games I lower my level of play dramatically unless I have an extremely good feeling about a game or two.  Also small slates I would try to limit your cash game playing because hockey is a huge variance sport, and goals are unpredictable.  Lets see if we can point you in the right direction for taking down that big GPP today though, good luck!

The Schedule For Sunday, December 11, 2016

AwayHomeTime (ET)
Los Angeles*Boston1:00 PM
ColoradoWinnipeg3:00 PM
ColumbusVancouver4:00 PM
OttawaNY Islanders7:00 PM
San JoseChicago*7:00 PM
New Jersey*NY Rangers*7:30 PM

BOLD = Back to Back

*= third game in four nights

Early Slate games (DK pricing)

Quick thoughts

The first game of Boston vs LA, I would view as a low scoring game, there isn’t much “fantasy goodness” that I would have to have here.  The Bergeron line will probably match up with the Carter and Tofolli line to try and shut them down, limiting their chances.  The Kopitar line will be matched up with the Krejci line and Chara should shadow on defense.  Boston usually tries to keep Bergeron and Chara separated if they are playing a team with a good top six.  If I looked for anyone in the game I would look for maybe a value one off of someone like a Trevor Lewis – $3,700 as he plays on the Kopitar line but he also gets time on the second unit power play.  Both teams are good possession teams with solid Corsi numbers as they are the top two teams.

COL vs WPG

This game could make for a sneaky game stack, but I will have more exposure to the Jets here.  Colorado has been pretty bad on defense, they are giving up the most goals per game in the league.  They are also the fourth most penalized team, and their penalty kill has been subpar also.  They are in the bottom ten with a 80.2% kill rate.  The Jets on the other hand are the second most penalized team, and their kill is awful also, they are the third worst team with a kill rate of 75.6%.  The Jets are also giving up a hair over 30 shots per game. Stacking power play lines that Correlate seem to be the clear play here.

Value plays I like here:

Bryan Little – C – $5,400 – 2nd line C and 2nd PP

Adam Lowry- W -$3,000 – 4th line C and top PP

Josh Morrisey – D – $3,400 – top D and top PP

CLS vs VAN

Vancouver ranks right next to Colorado today as the teams I want to pick on.  They are giving up over three goals against in average, and that’s a recipe for disaster against the Jackets who have been pouring goals in at will.  The Jackets are the second highest team in goals for game with 3.32 goals for per game.  Columbus also has the best power play in the league so far, so that’s where I would look to get your exposure.  Finding correlation plays from the Canucks is tough to do because outside of the Sedin’s the team mixes their players on even strength and the power play, so I would just stick to one off value plays if I went anywhere on the Canucks side.

Quick plays for the late slate

CENTERS

Logan Couture – SJ vs CHI – $6,500

Couture should be able to avoid Jonathan Toews and the shut down line if the Blackhawks tonight, and although Chicago is very good at limiting chances at the United Center their penalty kill has been atrocious.  The Hawks are dead last in killing penalties with a low 73.3% kill rate.  Couture plays on the top power play unit for the Sharks, and if I looked to anyone here it would be Couture.

Derrick Brassard – OTT vs NYI – $5,000

This game at face value looks mediocre and boring but if we dig in a little more into the metrics, the more I like some Ottawa.  The Isles are giving up the third most shots per game, averaging 32.7 SA/A, they are also giving up the fifth most goals per game, just a hair over three.  Brassard has had at least three shots on net in his last couple games and with Hoffman out, the lines have shaken up a little.  Brassard is playing on the top power play line and you can play him with Mark Stone – $6,000 as they play together on even strength and the powerplay. The Islanders are in the bottom ten with a 78.6% kill rate.

If you are looking to differentiate yourself  you can also look to Kyle Turris – $5.900.  His shot volume has been up and he also plays on that top power play.  He makes for a great stack with Erik Karlsson – $7,400 or double Defenseman stack him with Dion Phaneuf -$4,600.

Derrick Stepan – NYR vs NJD – $6,300

Stepan has gone pointless in his last three games, but his shot volume has been there.  He has nine shots in his last two games, and if he can continue that he should find the back of the net tonight against the Devils.  New Jersey has been notorious for limiting shots and low scores, but not this year.  The Devils are giving up just shy of three goals per game and they are also giving up the sixth most shots on net per game.

WINGERS

Artemi Panerin – CHI vs SJ – $6,700

Panerin has been a man in a mission lately with a four game point streak and nine points in them four, not to mention three games in a row he has multiple points.  He’s such a shifty player he is hard to cover and defend, and he has a laser wrist shot.  It also helps when you’re playing with one of the most elite wingers in the game in Patrick Kane, as he demands constant attention.  Anisimov is now questionable for tonight so we need to monitor that situation, but I would imagine that coach Q would double shift Toews a bunch.  The Sharks have been inconsistent with goaltending, and they can be had.  Panarin is high on my list tonight.

Ryan Hartman – CHI vs SJ – $3,600

Hartman can save you some salary tonight as he is playing on the top line with Toews and Hosea, but they will most likely be the shut down line and I’m not expecting a bunch of scoring here, I’m looking for a solid floor and that’s what Hartman has.  He is shooting the puck on net three times per game and he can block shots occasionally, and he should get some to block tonight playing against the top line for the Sharks.

Rick Nash – NYR vs NJ – $6,600

Nash missed four games and since coming back he has a goal in each game.  He a big bodied player that’s hard to move off the puck and he’s also a good stick handler, them guys are few and far between in the NHL.  He’s leading the Rangers in shots on goal, and makes for a good play tonight.  The Devils and their goaltending is not what it used to be.  New Jersey is giving up 2.97 goals against on average and also the sixth most shots per game (32.1).

DEFENSEMAN

Erik Karlsson – OTT VS NYi – $7,400

Karlsson logs massive minutes on the ice and he is the forefront in the powerplay..  He’s shooting a ton and he also blocks a lot of shots.  The matchup tonight is a plus matchup against the Isles, who are giving up almost 33 shots on net per game, and just over three goals allowed.  Karlsson has great upside tonight and I’m trying everything I can to fit him in.  If he’s a little too rich for your blood, you can also  look to Dion Phaneuf – $4,600

Ryan McDonagh – NYR vs NJD – $5,000

Mcdonagh is leading the Rangers in assists this year and he is also logging the most amount of ice time.  He’s also playing on the top power play unit and makes for a great stack with the top line.  Mcdonagh is also not afraid to block shots, and he should see enough to block tonight as he will match up against the Taylor Hall line a lot.

Nick Leddy – NYI vs OTT – $4,400

Leddy is seeing time on the top power play unit and he has a decent shot, last game he had four shots on net.  He is also logging big minutes, and that means opportunities.  He is a cost affective play because I’m looking to spend down today, and still have the upside.

GOALIE

Antti Raanta – NYR vs NJ – $8,100

Raanta has been great backing up Lundqvist and if he makes the start today he seems like the safest play out there.  He should see some shots but the Rangers should be able to score enough to get him the W.  Raanta has a 1.67gaa with a .941 save %.