NHL Power Plays – 12/11/16
Short slates can be a bit of a pain for everyone. The goal of this article is to highlight and summarize the potential plays so we can focus our salary cap resources on a specific set of players.
There are eight games on Sunday but we are focusing on the five game main slate that starts at 6:00 PM ET for DraftKings and the seven game slate for FanDuel. Let’s take a quick look back at last night’s games so we can then look ahead.
What Went Wrong?
Sadly, if you were crazy enough to choose Colorado goaltending, you watched Calvin Pickard get pulled and Semyon Varlamov as well. It was that night as the two goalies combined to give up ten goals on 36 shots. Nashville did not put up much in the way of goals but did fire a lot of pucks on net. Tampa Bay’s penalty kill turned a sure win into a one goal defeat by giving up three goals. Carey Price did get a win but only got 15 saves on one goal allowed. He would have needed a shutout to come close to value. Calgary’s second line went off on Winnipeg who was enigmatic again.
What Went Right?
Hey, it was just one of those nights where having Mike Smith was a good thing as he stopped over 40 shots again but this time it was a win. Then there was Montreal. If you did not have some kind of Montreal stack, it was tough to cash. Max Pacioretty had four goals and an assist with a slew of players having multiple point nights (even Tomas Plekanec). Like we mentioned above, Matthew Tkachuk and Dougie Hamilton had a really good time dissecting Winnipeg. Sidney Crosby took a nasty hit but scored twice for Pittsburgh and Columbus rallied to score four goals in the third period to give Sergei Bobrovsky owners the win.
The Schedule For Sunday, December 11, 2016
|St. Louis*||Minnesota||6:00 PM|
|New Jersey*||NY Rangers*||7:00 PM|
Back end of a back to back
Third game in four nights *
Quick Plays (DraftKings and FanDuel pricing is used)
Leon Draisaitl – $6300 / $6200- EDM vs WPG
Draisaitl is a borderline chalky GPP option because most are expecting Edmonton to go off on Winnipeg after the Jets gave up six to Calgary on Saturday. That is not an automatic because the Jets are a confusing team to gauge. Do note that Draisaitl is a winger on FanDuel and other formats. The forward has 12 points in his last ten games, including seven goals. He will play on Connor McDavid’s line occasionally and on the power play. His price is still low enough that ownership could spike.
Henrik Zetterberg — $5800 / $6200- DET vs PHI
Zetterberg is a good GPP play on Sunday as his price is reasonable. The center is starting to come back to his normal production levels. He has nine points in his last ten games. Shot volume is still right around 2.6 shots a game but having two young wingers flanking him has seemed to get his game in gear. The Flyers do allow a lot of shots and chances and that may be enough to play him again on Sunday. Do note that Zetterberg is only available on the early slate on DraftKings.
Mikko Koivu — $5400 / $4700- MIN vs STL
The Minnesota second line led by Koivu is a good tournament play on Sunday night. The center will draw the Vladimir Tarasenko line likely which is not as good defensively. Koivu has eight points in his last ten games and so does his linemate, Jason Zucker. Their shot volume is not immense but they can create chances by pinning St. Louis in deep. Their price is also reasonable enough to be able to spend up as needed on this slate.
Wayne Simmonds — $6800 / $7300- PHI vs DET
Simmonds is a pretty good tournament choice with goal upside against a Detroit team that often gives up chances in close. Detroit is better at home but Philadelphia plays a make you ragged style that drives defenses crazy. He has five goals and nine points in his last ten games but has been a little lucky in his last couple times out. Jakub Voracek is a decent side play but he may be highly owned especially in that early slate. Remember that Voracek has ten points in his last four games alone!
Anthony Mantha — $5200 / $4400- DET vs PHI
Mantha is a heck of a tournament or cash play on FanDuel today because of his price relief. He has been consistent enough of late aside from the last game where Mantha only had one shot on goal. Clunkers happen but Philadelphia’s tanks have been tested during this eight game winning streak. When does it hit empty? Detroit’s first line could put a lot of pressure on Philadelphia’s bend but not break defense and Mantha could be the beneficiary.
Marcus Johansson — $5700 / $4800- WSH vs VAN
Johansson is going to be a popular tournament choice on Sunday. He has points in four straight games and again has that second line even strength with first line power play deployment that catches some off guard. His price on FanDuel is particularly nice and that is where the play has more upside. The ice time is great but the shot volume is what it is at just under two shots per game. He carries moderate risk but the reward is greater. Any potential exposure to Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin is good exposure.
Zach Parise — $6700 / $7000- MIN vs STL
Parise is a moderate to almost high risk on Sunday because of one reason. When does he break out of his slump? He has no points in his six previous games but looked better on Friday against Edmonton where he had five shots and two blocked shots. If he keeps that level of production up and even hits for an assist, then you have exceeded value. The zip on the shot is still there and though the speed is a notch slower, Parise is faster than most in this league.
Robby Fabbri — $4600 / $5100- STL vs MIN
Fabbri is certainly a dangerous play in tournaments tonight because he can disappear without notice at times. The winger has had two hot games with goals in each but has had this weird pattern of having two good then two not so good contests. Devan Dubnyk is one of the stingiest goalies in the league but he is not always automatic against St. Louis. If you can get a little exposure to Vladimir Tarasenko without paying up for him one has to do it.
Mats Zuccarello — $6000 / $5800- NYR vs NJD
Again, Zuccarello is far from a sure thing on Sunday as no one ever really knows where the balanced score will come from when it comes to the Rangers. However, New York is in a great spot and Zuccarello will see a good bit of time against New Jersey’s bottom four defensemen which are far from adequate. Though New Jersey took three of four last year from their rivals, this game could get a little weird as it is the third game in four nights for both teams. Zuccarello could have a good bit in the tank as he has only played around 16-17 minutes per game in the last two outings. The forward hasn’t scored in over ten games either. He may be due and Zuccarello opens up nice power play exposure as well.
Ryan McDonagh — $5300 / $5300- NYR vs NJD
McDonagh has good point potential against a New Jersey team that likes to shoot into bodies more often than most. The defenseman also has five points in his last ten games and is a power play threat in this match-up. Shot volume is not great at 1.5 per game but those nearly three blocks a night is encouraging. He is slightly higher priced than most would like but part of that has to do with a medium slate and career numbers that are above average. The Rangers speed should give New Jersey fits all evening and this could be a bit of an up and down type of game.
Andrej Sekera — $4600 / $4200- EDM vs WPG
This is a good salary relief play for cash or tournaments. Consider that the defenseman blocks about three shots a game and has seven points in his last ten games for a second. Then there is his price which is solid by most standards. Sekera is providing above value output and playing in all situations which means more chances to block shots and create a little offense. The play is a little better on FanDuel because of some of their inflated pricing. Winnipeg’s penalty kill has been suspect all year and Sekera might get a few extra opportunities that way.
John Carlson — $6000 / $5700- WSH vs VAN
Carlson has more potential for a GPP than most think on Sunday. Consider the confidence gained by finally scoring his first goal of the season on Friday against Buffalo. He has also gone above value in three of his last four outings. If the shots and chances stay up, the goals will keep coming. Washington’s power play is showing subtle signs of life and Vancouver has one of the worst defensive groups in the entire league. Let it fly John will be a familiar refrain because Washington is more successful when he does.
Antti Raanta — $7900 / $8700- NYR vs NJD
Raanta is almost a cash only option on Sunday night. Keep in mind that the goalie is only likely at press time because he was the first goalie off the ice. The Rangers should be in line to have the second greatest chance at a victory given how many times the Devils have given up three or more goals lately. Montreal had nearly 50 shots on Cory Schneider in his last start and New York is capable of at least putting 30+ shots on him easily. This is more about Devils pace. Will they hit the gas pedal as the last two games have seen them only managed just over 20 shots a game. The 30+ shot a night Devils may come out in flashes which could give Raanta owners some hope. If one does play him in a GPP, Raanta will have to give up two goals or less and win.
Braden Holtby — $8300 / $9500- WSH vs VAN
Holtby is another exclusively cash goalie with some GPP upside because Vancouver may be starting an AHL goalie in Thatcher Demko. Demko is a good prospect but this is a Washington team that could be getting it together a bit. Monitor the news out of Washington to see if Ryan Miller is healthy just in case but the Capitals are in a very good spot. Holtby, if he starts, has been consistent this year. When one looks at his metrics in intervals, they are all near each other. Typically, he allows two goals on about 25 or 26 shots at home. His home split is coming right up to that .920 mark and odds makers have the Caps as a -280 favorite at press time.
If for whatever reason, you are a little queasy on these goalies then wait a little closer to confirmations and maybe tilt a bit towards Devan Dubnyk or Cam Talbot. Contrarian plays would be on the St. Louis or Winnipeg side because they expect to face a lot of shots.
There will be lots more on Twitter as always. Do not be afraid to ask the tough or the easy questions. You can follow me @ChrisWasselDFS and good luck with tonight!