NHL Power Plays 11/7/16
Short slates can be a bit of a pain for everyone. The goal of this article is to highlight and summarize the potential plays so we can focus our salary cap resources on a specific set of players.
Monday features only three games. Let’s take a quick look back at last night’s games so we can begin compiling our player knowledge for this season.
What Went Wrong?
Unfortunately, the Winnipeg Jets forgot to show up yesterday evening and the result was a relatively easy New York Rangers win. The problem is twofold. Connor Hellebuyck was holding his glove hand too low again and the Rangers made him pay. Also, Detroit lost to Edmonton in an unexpectedly low scoring game which helped no one. Calgary laid yet another egg against Anaheim and then Colorado looked like they were completely lost against St. Louis. The tragic death of Marek Svatos clearly weighed on them. The “Chicago Chalk Donkeys” struck for Chicago but Dallas had an unexpected outburst from Gemel Smith. He is a player you may want to keep an eye on.
What Went Right?
Hey, Michael Cammalleri showed up last night with a hat trick! He was less than 1% owned almost everywhere. There were no goalie shutouts but Jonas Gustavsson had a brilliant performance stopping all but one shot in Detroit. The same could be said for Keith Kinkaid as New Jersey was badly outshot again this time in Carolina. Then there was the top Anaheim line which got enough helpers to exceed value yesterday. All in all, it was a mixed slate that truly provided mixed results.
Buffalo Sabres @ Boston Bruins
Tuukka Rask vs. Buffalo Sabres
Rask is in a very good spot and at the very least is a strong cash play tonight. The only concern is if the goalie is even a little bit off. That is how low Boston’s margin of error is these days. Think Montreal with arguably as bad of a defense and you have Boston described perfectly. Buffalo’s shot output has been a bit all over the place so that is why we temper his GPP upside a little. However, it may just be worth it anyway so we call it 50-50.
Robin Lehner vs. Boston Bruins
Lehner is a GPP play with moderate upside as he is not getting the greatest goal support but has been seeing enough shots and chances his way. The important thing is he is playing well. What is encouraging is that the goalie has managed to stay healthy so far aside from a little thing called the flu. Boston’s top line going against Buffalo’s top line should be an advantage for the Bruins and they do generate chances on their power play but typically have been futile (under 10% success rate).
Vancouver Canucks @ New York Islanders
Jaroslav Halak vs. Vancouver Canucks
Halak is a GPP play tonight and in a good spot to boot. Vancouver did break through defensively against Toronto scoring three goals but still have only five in their last six games. The Islanders goalie has a 2.92 GAA and .905 save percentage which basically means he sees over 30 shots per 60. Vancouver can occasionally produce a high volume of shots (see Toronto and Montreal) but they can also fire 20 shots the next game. Halak has at least a 60% chance of getting a win and the Islanders need it as they keep falling further behind in the Metro.
Ryan Miller vs. New York Islanders
Miller is a very high risk GPP play as it just seems every time he is in a relatively decent spot, Vancouver just does not score for him at all. His goal support is less than a goal a game. His 1-5 record is not indicative of his play as Miller does have a .916 save percentage (if not for a few mop-ups that would be better too). The goalie has had pretty good career success against the Islanders through the years and he is cheap on some formats. Just buyer beware!
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
Roberto Luongo vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Luongo is actually in a pretty good spot to be a GPP play on Monday because Tampa gives up almost 32 shots per 60 when Ben Bishop is in net. The problem is the Florida goalie has had a cold start to the season losing five of his first eight decisions. Tampa Bay can be helter skelter with their line combinations and their offense. Old Southeast Division clashes often have a little of the unexpected.
Ben Bishop vs. Florida Panthers
Actually Bishop has some upside and could be a more sneaky GPP play. He has had four quality starts (above league average) in his last five appearances. He has raised his save percentage above .900 and has won three of his last five. The netminder led the league in Goals Saved Above Average last season and has managed to almost level that statistic. His lateral movement and glove hand have improved. Earlier in the season, it was just too low to catch up.
Quick Plays (DraftKings pricing is used)
Sam Reinhart – $4400- BUF vs BOS
So, Reinhart would be considered a moderately high risk GPP play on Monday because his ice time fluctuates but he will face the Bergeron line either. There is a little balance to the gamble as they say and he does have points in his last two games. The price is reasonable enough that at the very least he makes a good one off idea if you are just above value range.
Patrice Bergeron — $6900- BOS vs BUF
Bergeron will be more of a cash play but the temptation will be high to use him in tournaments. He is hitting the net more and in three of his last four games has at least five shots on goal. That is the key for the center. He must get involved early and create chances. The only concern is still the Bruins power play which has been horrid and gave up two more shorthanded goals against the Rangers. The hope is Buffalo does not have the depth most teams do and Bergeron can expose that.
Cal Clutterbuck — $3800- NYI vs VAN
Clutterbuck is another cheap GPP play and again his size and surprisingly quick feet were a major asset combined with John Tavares in their last game. People will chuckle because the winger often cannot stay on his feet but when he does, the forward can keep up with the best of them. He played over 19 minutes in his last contest by the way and had four shots on goal.
Nikita Kucherov — $6500- TAM vs FLA
Kucherov is hot of late and can be used in both GPP and cash options on Monday. His latest point binge is now at eight points in his last four games. Simply he just needed a little training camp after the late in the pre-season signing. What he does that separates himself from most wingers is the forward can create space with his speed but his ability to possess the puck. Add in his quick shot and he can be a nightmare for opposing goalies.
Dennis Seidenberg — $3500- NYI vs VAN
Seidenberg is a great tournament punt play because of his price and $1000 per point price tag. Anything less than $1500 per point is considered optimal (it’s a bit higher on FanDuel). With the Travis Hamonic injury, everyone moves up a little in their roles so the defenseman will see a little more time across all three phases (EV, PP, and PK). His floor is so low that we are practically giving this value play away.
Jaroslav Halak — $8000- NYI vs VAN
This is arguably one of the two lowest GPP risk plays of the night. Halak is priced at $8000 on DraftKings and his other prices across the sites are not all that bad. Short slates do produce a little bit of inflation as pricing gets a little out there sometimes. If people are skittish on Halak, Rask is $100 lower but he will be as chalky or more so than the Islanders goalie. New York is the biggest favorite on the night at -180 and that seems to be trending higher in the afternoon.
There will be lots more on Twitter as always. Do not be afraid to ask the tough or the easy questions. You can follow me @ChrisWasselDFS and good luck tonight!