NHL Power Plays 11/13/16
Short slates can be a bit of a pain for everyone. The goal of this article is to highlight and summarize the potential plays so we can focus our salary cap resources on a specific set of players.
There are six games but Sunday’s main slates feature only four games. Let’s take a quick look back at last night’s games so we can then look ahead.
What Went Wrong?
Sadly, Boston did not quite hit their expected scoring average against Arizona. Yes, the Coyotes were still expected to give up at least three goals but did not. Nashville was even tougher than their 1.5 goals per game allowed at home and blanked Anaheim. Columbus and St. Louis was an over that was possible to hit but no one saw 12 goals combined. Sergei Bobrovsky giving up four goals along with Philipp Grubauer had to hurt at least a little in different ways. Toronto and Tampa Bay also hit duds offensively but those were at least something that could be somewhat prepared for. Carolina’s five goal outburst was definitely not.
What Went Right?
Hey, it was play the Columbus song all over again as they piled up eight goals on the St. Louis Blues. Cam Atkinson had a natural hat trick of assists in the second period alone. Also, Filip Forsberg finally scored a goal and added an assist which ended his drought of lighting the lamp. Pekka Rinne got a fairly easy shutout in the process. Pittsburgh did eventually get 40+ shots and four goals against Toronto but it just took time and some sweating. There was no real late hammer but nice to see some solid efforts and that Florida comeback despite a couple disallowed goals. All in all, it was not so bad.
Minnesota Wild @ Ottawa Senators
Craig Andersen vs. Minnesota Wild
Andersen is a good tournament play tonight against a Minnesota team on its third game in four nights. The only concern is what will shot volume be? It could be a little ragged given that the Wild have faced Pittsburgh and Philadelphia who are high event teams. Ottawa itself can be a little all over the place but the one thing they have focused on is defense. The Senators have allowed only seven goals over their last five games. Ottawa is scoring over 1 ½ goals off from their season average at home and the under has hit in seven straight. It feels like Andersen might have a margin of error for once tonight.
Darcy Kuemper vs. Ottawa Senators
Kuemper is a high risk GPP play with limited upside as he is the likely starter. The goalie is a drop-off from Devan Dubnyk and Minnesota does not score as much on the road (only 2.62 goals per game). This is a Minnesota goalie that can have a few good performances but then have a clunker just as fast. If the backup goalie is confirmed, watch the betting line likely move a little In Ottawa’s direction. The only good thing going for the netminder is Ottawa’s power play is dreadful at around 10%. However, they have a lot of talent there so it might break out tonight.
Montreal Canadiens @ Chicago Blackhawks
Corey Crawford vs. Montreal Canadiens
Crawford is more of a cash option with some GPP ownership also a definite possibility tonight. The goalie was very good but unlucky in a 3-2 overtime loss against Washington. Yes, his even strength save percentage of .970 will regress but his penalty kill save percentage has rapidly approached .800. Considering where it was earlier in the year, that is huge progress. The Chicago goalie literally has tilted their chances of winning along with their fortunately high shooting percentage.
Al Montoya vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Montoya is an okay but high risk contrarian tournament play and maybe little else. Nobody knows how he is going to come out after allowing ten goals on 40 shots against Columbus in his last start. Nobody! Having all the right answers does little when the first one goes by you. Chicago has speed and Montreal has a lot of speed as well. The first five minutes will be more vital to him than to his team actually. He will not be highly owned on this night.
Boston Bruins @ Colorado Avalanche
Semyon Varlamov vs. Boston Bruins
Varlamov has upside and in a good spot especially when it comes to GPP’s on Sunday. First, he might not have to oppose Tuukka Rask in net. That has not been confirmed as of press time but would be a significant boost. Second, Boston is not like most teams on back to backs. They can drive some shots on net which is good for the Colorado goalie. He has had three very bad starts and one okay one over the last four games and Boston could be a slump buster.
Zane McIntyre vs. Colorado Avalanche
McIntyre has some minor upside in tournaments only Sunday and that is only if he plays. His sample size is small but he did get rattled against the Rangers in a start and the same thing kind of derailed him late against Montreal. He has some pretty quick reflexes but they do tend to get him in trouble in pressure situation. McIntyre is a rookie after all. Colorado likely will not have Matt Duchene in the lineup tonight and that does help but does it help enough.
New York Rangers @ Edmonton Oilers
Cam Talbot vs. New York Rangers
Talbot is a decent cash play but likely better tournament option for Sunday. He did not play quite so well against New York at Madison Square Garden and wants to show better this time. This all predicates on him starting obviously. Keep in mind, he has played in 14 of Edmonton’s 15 games this year. At press time, he was probable but check back closer to the 5:00 PM lock time. Talbot is one of the main reasons why the Oilers are where they are but has given up three or more goals in his last five starts. He cannot psyche himself out tonight.
Antti Raanta vs. Edmonton Oilers
Raanta makes for a good GPP choice on Sunday provided New York does not surprise us and start Henrik Lundqvist. The goalie has played well in all four games he was in this year (went out with concussion in last start with the game tied at 2). New York’s backup netminder was cleared and is expected to play tonight. Raanta is seeing over 32 shots per 60 and Calgary fired 38 shots on Lundqvist last night. Quite a few of those were the high danger variety and the backup has been seeing those better this season. As the ice tilts, a few GPP’s might as well.
Quick Plays (DraftKings pricing is used)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – $5000- EDM vs NYR
Nugent-Hopkins would be considered a moderate play with upside in a good spot. The reasons for that upside is his price is still reasonable and the Rangers have been giving up shots of late. Also, in his last game, he did fire seven shots on goal. His speed and acceleration should provide him with more opportunities against a New York team on the back end of a back to back.
Artem Anisimov — $6900- CHI vs MON
Anisimov is a cash play more likely than not with some tendency to lean towards a GPP option. His scoring streak only ended because he was injured about midway through the St. Louis game. The forward missed the Washington game but comes back at a perfect time against a Montreal team that can be beat with speed and transition. The pivot assumes his normal roles tonight in his return.
Alex Radulov — $5800- MON vs CHI
Radulov is a tough buy in cash but more intriguing in GPP’s. He has points in his last four games but has missed the net a bit more than usual. The winger only has seven shots in the previous four contests. Chances have been down to about one a game lately as well. Perhaps, the wide open style that Chicago plays at times will be more to his liking. Do not forget that he has three goals and ten assists already on the season. If one feels safer punting down, Paul Byron might just ride again but carries a lot of the same risks. Marian Hossa even has the same risks and right around the same price as Radulov but has eight goals. The Russian may be due.
Gabriel Landeskog — $5500- COL vs BOS
Landeskog is a nice GPP option for those who do not want to spend up to the Chicago chalk plays or Connor McDavid exposure. When the left winger plays more physical, he is an impact player. Against Winnipeg, the forward was throwing his weight around and it did eventually lead to an assist. Points have not been plentiful this year so far but if Landeskog can maintain his focus, he will likely drive Boston crazy tonight. That will mean more chances and likely higher points.
Erik Karlsson — $7100- OTT vs MIN
Karlsson is a very safe cash play tonight while possessing some GPP potential as well. He has not scored a goal since October 28th against Calgary and he has been piling up shots. His floor is the best on the slate among defensemen. Also, that paltry power play of Ottawa’s has a decent chance at breaking out against a tired Minnesota team. Some are going to run to Shea Weber and others which may help. Expect ownership to dip then rise as lock approaches as the price is still very solid. Again, monitor to see who starts in Minnesota first.
Craig Anderson — $7200- OTT vs MIN
This is the hardest decision because Anderson has upside in GPP’s and arguably in cash too. The question is which Ottawa shows up – early season or current Ottawa? Guy Boucher has instilled his system and while the Senators are playing closer to it, they still are creating. Pucks just are not going in but do they tonight? We said the exact same thing last week and it never materialized. However, the chances are even better that the Ottawa goalie does have a little wiggle room tonight. Win probabilities are likely to go up this afternoon to close to 60%.
There will be lots more on Twitter as always. Do not be afraid to ask the tough or the easy questions. You can follow me @ChrisWasselDFS and good luck tonight!