NHL Breakdown 10/18/2016
After two smaller slates in a row we are back with a 12 game slate tonight with lots of big tournaments across the major DFS sites. I will break down a few of the key games that I am looking to target tonight for offense.
Arizona Coyotes at Ottawa Senators
This is my favorite game to target tonight in terms of offense. The Sens are playing their third game in four nights after getting blown out in Detroit and will look to bounce back against a fresh Coyotes squad who has only played one game on the season. Both of these teams give up a ton of shot attempts and had the 28th and 29th ranked penalty kills last season. I love both stud defensemen Erik Karlsson and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in this one as they should see a ton of ice time and both man their respective PP units. I will likely have heavy exposure to the Coyotes side in tournaments as they are the fresher team and the underdogs in a high total game. I love the top line of Max Domi, Martin Hanzal and Radim Vrbata as they all skate together at even strength and the first PP and are very underpriced on all sites. If you need to go even cheaper I don’t mind a look at top prospect Dylan Strome and Anthony Duclair on the second line and second PP unit.
I expect the Sens will put up a better effort tonight and they are in a good spot aside from the back to back situation. I like the top line of Turris, Hoffman and Stone but be careful about stacking as the lines were juggled last night in an effort to generate some offense and I’m not sure what to expect come game time tonight.
Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals
As -200 favorites, the Washington Capitals will be the chalk offense on the evening. Alex Ovechkin disappointed last time out against the Islanders but I don’t think that will stop him from being the highest owned player on the night. Ovechkin had no points last game despite the team receiving 5 PP opportunities, but I think you can give the Islanders PK some credit for that one. This matchup is even juicier as they get the high event Colorado Avalanche coming to town for their third game in four nights. The Avalanche are coming off an impressive OT victory at Pittsburgh last night despite getting outplayed in the puck possession department. The top line of Ovechkin, TJ Oshie and Evgeny Kuznetsov all make for great plays even though I think they will be highly owned. If you’re looking for lower ownership in tournaments while still getting exposure to this offense you can stack the second line of Nicklas Backstrom, Andrei Burakovsky and Marcus Johansson. I really like defenseman Jon Carlson on the back end as he gets to man the top PP unit. Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie and Johansson are also on the first unit so you can get creative with some mini stacks there.
Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames
The Flames have been brutal so far this season so I expect people to be off them a little tonight despite the great matchup. The top line has not been as dominant in the early going as they were last year but that can probably be chalked up to the Gaudreau hold out and Versteeg not joining the team until opening day. With a couple days off to regroup and get some practice time in I expect the offense to come out tonight. Last season Gaudreau and Monahan were always solid plays on home ice and I like them a lot tonight. You can stack them with Versteeg for salary relief as he is still way too cheap. I like Mark Giordano in this one but there are a lot of high priced defensemen that I would rather pay up for tonight.
With how poor the Flames have looked defensively early on I like the Sabres top line of Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo and Sam Reinhart. The Sabres PP dominated the Oilers the other night and they have a great matchup against the Flames weak PK unit tonight. PP Defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is also in a great spot although I think he is a little overpriced.
Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators
These two teams have played several high scoring games over the past couple seasons and I think this is a great game to target for offense. The Preds are big favorites in this one so I expect the Stars to go under owned in a solid matchup. On the Stars side I only really like the top line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Patrick Eaves who provides great salary relief and joins them on the top PP. Defenseman Jon Klingberg can also be part of this stack.
I’m probably going to have a lot of exposure to the Preds side tonight and specifically the duo of Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg combined with defenseman Roman Josi. Johansen is very underpriced and Dallas has shown that they can’t keep the puck out of their own net this season. Other spots you can look for lower ownership are the Preds second line of Mike Fisher, James Neal and Colin Wilson. I prefer the mini stack of Fisher and Neal with Josi as they are all on the first PP unit.
As far as goalies go, my favorite target is Corey Schneider at home against a Ducks team that is not that deep and is having trouble scoring early in the season. Despite being slight underdogs I like Scneider a lot in gpps for his upside.
The other spot I like is backup goaltender Phillip Grubauer in Washington as the biggest favorite on the night. I prefer him in cash as he should be the best bet to pick up the win tonight even if he doesn’t face a ton of shots.