NFL Week 9 Stack Em Up: DraftKings
We have got two games with a projected total of more than 52 points, as well as, some games with an over/under of 47 or more points and a good amount of teams with high implied totals so there are some stacks we can target in Week 9.
For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.
Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.
Green Bay Packers
Game Over/Under: 54
Packers Implied Points: 30.75
The Packers host the Colts in what Vegas is projecting to be the highest scoring game of the weekend and Green Bay has the highest implied team total of the week. The fact that the Packers are hurting at the running back position means that they will likely have to rely on Aaron Rodgers $7,800 who has been heating up in recent weeks. In his last two games, he is averaging 286 passing yards and has thrown seven touchdowns. Rodgers has not thrown for a ton of yards this season, but the touchdowns remain steady. He faces a Colts defense that has allowed two or more passing touchdowns per game in their last five games, surrendering 14 for the season and are yielding 298.4 passing yards per game. Considering potential the game script, the lack of run game, and the matchup, Rodgers is in a phenomenal spot to have one of his best games to date.
There are several ways you can go here with Rodgers as he is going to sling it. Jordy Nelson $7,800, Randall Cobb $6,600, Davante Adams $5,900, and Ty Montgomery $5,800 are all in play and even throwing two of these receivers in your stack is fine with me. It is worth noting that both Cobb and Montgomery missed last game, but are expected to play this week.
Nelson is coming off of a solid performance, catching four of his nine targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. For the season, he is averaging 8.6 targets per game and accounts for 22.3 percent of the Packers target share, as well as, 29.2 percent of the red zone targets. The one concern I have with him is that he has been far less efficient since returning from the bye week, as in the first three weeks he was catching 63 percent of his targets, but since then he is catching just 42 percent of his targets. In addition, both Cobb and Adams have received more targets in the last four games, despite both being out last week. Nonetheless, Nelson is still seeing 8.2 targets per game in his last four games.
Cobb missed last week with a hamstring injury, but since Week 5 he is averaging 12.3 targets per game, being peppered with double-digit targets in each game during that timeframe and averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game in that span. In his last three games, Cobb is averaging nine receptions and 85.3 yards per game, while scoring two touchdowns. He is accountable for 20.4 percent of the target share for the Packers, making him a high volume receiver.
Adams is averaging 10.2 targets per game in his last four games and has seen double-digit targets in two consecutive weeks. He benefited last week from Cobb and Montgomery being sidelined, catching 12 of his 14 targets for 74 yards. It was his second game in a row that he caught over 10 passes. He has been efficient since returning from the bye and has topped 19 fantasy points in all but one game during that span. He is nearly $2,000 cheaper than Nelson, which could be helpful with your roster construction.
Montgomery is another intriguing option as he has been heavily involved in the offense since Eddie Lacy went to IR. In his last two game, Montgomery is averaging 12.5 targets per game and has caught 20 passes for 164 yards, as well as, rushing for 66 yards on 12 carries. His role in this offense has expanded immensely and he is being used as both a receiver and running back, making him valuable and providing him a very nice floor.
My favorite option: Rodgers/Cobb/Montgomery
Game Over/Under: 48.5
Cowboys Implied Points: 27.75
Dak Prescott $6,100 is someone I have a decent amount of interest in this week as he has a great matchup and has been quietly producing fantasy points by the bunches. Since Week 2, he has topped 18 fantasy points in every game and has eclipsed 20 fantasy points three times. One of his biggest strengths is his ability to run the ball and score rushing touchdowns (four this season). He has scored three total touchdowns in back-to-back games and has multiple touchdowns (rushing and passing combined) in every game since Week 2. Cleveland has allowed +2.8 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks and are surrendering 288.5 passing yards per game, while giving up 19 touchdowns (tied for most in the league). Quarterbacks have thrown for two or more touchdowns in all but one game against them. The Cowboys also have the third highest implied team total of the slate.
The receiver I want to pair up with Prescott is no other the Mr. Dez Bryant $7,400. In his first game back after missing several weeks, Bryant was targeted 14 times, catching four passes for 113 yards and a touchdown. Despite the lack of receptions, it was good to see that Prescott looked often in Bryant’s direction. Prior to going down with the injury, Bryant was averaging 7.3 targets per game, scored one touchdown, and topped 100 receiving yards in one game. He has now scored in each of his last two games played. This is a good matchup for him as the Browns have allowed +3.7 points above expectations to opposing wide receivers and are giving up 184.2 receiving yards per game, while surrendering 11 touchdowns.
My favorite option: Prescott/Bryant
Game over/Under: 54
Colts Implied Points: 23.25
I am expecting the Colts and Packers game to shootout much like Vegas does which should create plenty of opportunities for Andrew Luck $6,700 to score some fantasy points. He has now topped 20 DraftKings points in four consecutive games, averaging 284.3 passing yards per game and has thrown eight touchdowns in that span. Luck has eclipsed 300 passing yards in 50 percent of his contests and has thrown multiple touchdowns in five games. His price continues to drop and is now at the lowest it has been all season ($1,600 cheaper than he was at the start of the season), which is something else that is appealing. The matchup is a favorable one as the Packers have allowed 13 passing touchdowns and are giving up 265 passing yards per game. Considering the potential game flow here, you would expect for Luck to attempt over 40 passes in this matchup. As it is, he is averaging 38.9 pass attempts per game. Both of these teams are in the top 10 in pass attempts per game, so each offense should see plenty of possessions.
Donte Moncrief $5,800 returned to action last week after missing some time with a shoulder injury and picked up right where he left off. He caught four of his nine targets for 41 yards and scored a touchdown. Going back to last season, Moncrief has scored a touchdown in seven of the last 10 games that both he and Luck have both played in. They clearly have a strong chemistry and that should continue throughout the remainder of the season. Last week, Moncrief played 59 offensive snaps and was targeted nine times (both team highs amongst receivers). The Packers are giving up 173.7 receiving yards per game for the season and have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to receivers. This is a matchup that Moncrief should be able to exploit and being road underdogs, the Colts could be chasing points here which will likely force them to pass the ball, potentially creating more target opportunities for him.
T.Y. Hilton $7,600 is dealing with a hamstring injury, but was able to practice Thursday and is fully expected to play this week. Of the two, he will be the least owned due to his price, the fact that he let down many of his owners last week, and also because of the hamstring issues. That being said, he too is in a good spot against a suspect Packers secondary. For those concerned about Moncrief taking away some targets from Hilton, do not be, at the start of the season when Moncrief was playing, Hilton still averaged double-digit targets. Last week he received just six targets, but that was after going down with the hamstring injury and clearly playing at less than 100 percent healthy after returning to the game. Hilton has seen 10 or more targets in all but two games this season and accounts for 27.1 percent of the Colts target share. I am fully aware that Moncrief has been out, but this is a pass first team and Luck attempts nearly 40 passes per game, so Hilton will still get his. Assuming he suffers no setbacks, he makes a very good tournament stack option with Luck. I am not opposed to a three man stack in this contest, with Luck and his two receivers.
My favorite option: Luck/Moncrief
Game Over/Under: 44
Texans Implied Points: 23.75
Rostering Ryan Tannehill $5,600 is never comforting, but this is a favorable matchup as he faces a Jets defense that has struggled to defend the pass this season. Opposing quarterback are averaging 302.1 passing yards per game and have thrown 15 touchdowns against the Jets. In his last two games against New York, Tannehill is averaging 274.5 passing yards per game and has thrown five touchdowns. The Dolphins have relied more on their run game in recent weeks, which has limited any upside that Tannehill offers, but the Jets are tough to run on, so Miami could be forced to pass. Tannehill is also a quarterback that can pick up yardage through the ground, which increases his ceiling. He is very volatile and the floor is extremely low, but he has also displayed his 300+ passing yards and multiple touchdown games in the past, including in games against the Jets when they were far better against the pass.
The receiver I want to stack with Tannehill is Jarvis Landry $7,100. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Landry averages 9.3 targets per game and accounts for 33.2 percent of the Dolphins target share, as well as, 19.1 percent of the red zone targets. He has caught seven or more passes in all but two games this season. The fact that the Dolphins may not be able to run the ball on the Jets, could create extra targets for Landry on third and short to move the chains. The Jets have allowed +2.3 points above expectations to receivers and are giving up 14.4 receptions and 197.9 receiving yards per game, while surrendering 10 receiving touchdowns. In four career games against the Jets, Landry is averaging 12 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 82 receiving yards per game and has caught one touchdown pass. The volume is there and the matchup is favorable, making Landry a very intriguing play this week.
My favorite option: Tannehill/Landry
Good luck to all this week. For any questions or concerns, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal