Week 5 Stack Em Up – FantasyDraft & DraftKings Plays
By: Armando Marsal
Bye weeks have finally arrived and there are some explosive offenses that will have the week off. This is probably why there is just one game with an over/under above 48 points in the main slate and only two with an over/under above 45 points. With that said, there are still several teams with decent implied team totals that could put up some points this week and provide us with some fantasy goodness. In addition, there are some nice matchups to exploit this week. Let’s go ahead and jump right into it, and discuss some of this week’s stacks to target.
For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.
Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.
Green Bay Packers
Game Over/Under: 52.5
Packers Implied Points: 25.25
Aaron Rodgers $8,100 (DK), $15,300 (FantasyDraft) gets a nice matchup against a Cowboys defense that is giving up 257.8 passing yards per game and have allowed eight passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. In years past, targeting the Cowboys defense is not something I looked forward to doing because of their ability to control the clock, however, that has not been the case this season as they rank 23rd in average time of possession. Coming into the season, the Dallas secondary was ranked 23rd by Pro Football Focus. Rodgers continues to do Rodgers things, averaging 286.5 passing yards per game and throwing 10 touchdowns in the first four games. During that stretch, he has eclipsed 300 passing yards three times. Considering how well he is playing and how favorable of a matchup this is, Rodgers appears to be in a prime spot for another productive Sunday.
Jordy Nelson $8,100 (DK), $15,300 (FantasyDraft) is off to another great start, catching 17-of-24 targets for 206 yards and five touchdowns. Keep in mind he missed the majority of Week 2 where he finished with zeros across the board. He gets a very nice matchup against a Cowboys defense that is yielding over 35 fantasy points per game to receivers, while giving up 142 receiving yards and 13.3 receptions per game, along with five touchdowns to opposing wide outs. Nelson accounts for 22.7 percent of the red zone targets for the Packers and 15 percent of the team targets. With Davante Adams’ status up in the air, Nelson could see even more targets this week.
Randall Cobb $6,700 (DK), $12,600 (FantasyDraft) is having a solid start to the season, averaging 15 fantasy points per game. He accounts for 16 percent of the Packers target share and has a 73 percent catch rate. As I mentioned above, the Cowboys defense has been generous to receivers this season, so this is a matchup Cobb can expose. He will likely see Orlando Scandrick often who has a middling grade over at Pro Football Focus. Cobb should get plenty of looks in this matchup and rack up the fantasy points, especially if Davante Adams sits this one out. I like pairing Cobb up with Rodgers this week as he will like be the second option for most who plan to stack Rodgers and offers nice upside in this matchup.
Aaron Rodgers came out and said that the team needs to get Martellus Bennett $4,100 (DK), $8,100 (FantasyDraft) involved early. While this comment may not have any emphasis on what actually happens, it is something worth noting. Bennett has played in 84 percent of the snaps and is tied with Adams for the most targets on the team with 28, which is 17 percent of the target share. In addition, he accounts for 13.6 percent of the red zone targets. The Cowboys have done a decent job against tight ends this season, limiting them to no more than 57 yards in any game this season and allowing just one touchdown. Even though the matchup on paper is not great, Bennett has enough upside to warrant consideration.
My favorite option: Rodgers/Nelson
Game Over/Under: 52.5
Cowboys Implied Points: 27.25
Dak Prescott $6,800 (DK), $12,700 (FantasyDraft) has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season and has three total touchdowns in back-to-back games. This Dallas offense surprisingly is 12th in the league, running passing plays 60.3 percent of the time. Prescott has attempted over 35 passes in all but one game. The Packers secondary is mediocre and despite their pretty good start, a lot of that could have to do with their opponents. Russell Wilson has always struggled against them and they also got a dose of Andy Dalton and Mike Glennon, both of which are average at best. Prescott can both run and pass well, creating more upside and ways to generate fantasy points, making him a very appealing option at this price. Especially when you consider the possible game script in this contest.
Dez Bryant $6,500 (DK), $12,300 (FantasyDraft) continues to come at a reasonable price. He has been peppered with 40 targets, which is good for 28 percent of the Cowboys target share, as well as 38.9 percent of the team’s red zone targets. He is clearly Prescott’s go-to receiver and should see plenty of looks in this potential shootout. The Packers have allowed a touchdown in two straight games to opposing receivers and are giving up over 29 fantasy points per game to the position. He will likely see plenty of Kevin King this weekend which grades out very low on Pro Football Focus. Bryant has yet to eclipse 100 receiving yards and score a touchdown in the same game this season, but that could very well change in Week 5.
Talking about the Cowboys offense and not mentioning Ezekiel Elliott $8,800 (DK), $16,600 (FantasyDraft) does not feel right. After all, he has received 19 targets this season and has an 84 percent catch rate. In addition, he has 20+ touches in three of his four games and is a big part of the red zone offense, accounting for 11.1 percent of the red zone targets and 69.2 percent of red zone rushes. The Packers have struggled big time against running backs allowing nearly 100 rushing yards per game and three rushing touchdowns, as well as, 17 receptions for 120 yards and two touchdowns. This is one of those situations where pairing the quarterback and his running back is fine with me, even doing a three-man stack could pay off, but it does increase risk.
My favorite option: Prescott/Bryant
Game Over/Under: 45
Cardinals Implied Points: 19.25
The one thing that has me truly concerned about Carson Palmer $5,900 (DK), $11,000 (Fantasy Draft) this week is the implied team total for the Cardinals. With that said, it is tough to ignore this matchup against a funnel Eagles defense who has struggled immensely against quarterbacks this season, allowing 301 passing yards per game and seven passing touchdowns. Palmer has thrown for over 300 passing yards in three consecutive games and has scored at least 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games. He comes at a very affordable price and has enough upside to smash value in this matchup. Considering the Vegas numbers here, I expected him to go overlooked, much like Philip Rivers did last week and that could be a mistake.
Larry Fitzgerald $6,800 (DK), $12,700 (FantasyDraft) has reached a price point that is tough to feel good paying for. That said, he has received 41 targets which is good for 22 percent of the target share in Arizona and accounts for 31.3 percent of the team’s red zone targets. In addition, he has played in 96 percent of the snaps. Receivers have gotten the best of the Eagles, averaging 15.5 receptions, 209.3 receiving yards and over 40 fantasy points per game against them, while scoring four touchdowns. Fitzgerald scored a game winning touchdown last week and has found the pay dirt in two consecutive weeks. To be honest, I would not be surprised to see it happen one more week.
John Brown $5,100 (DK), $10,200 (FantasyDraft) returned last week from a two-game absence and caught 3-of-7 targets for 47 yards, while playing 62 percent of the snaps. He makes for an interesting pairing with Palmer in tournaments because of his big play ability and the matchup at hand, but he is also a high-variance play that offers somewhat of a low floor.
Jaron Brown $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FantasyDraft) is drawing a lot of interest from me. He has played in 85 percent of the snaps this season and has 29 targets (had zero in Week 1), which is good for 15 percent of the Cardinals target share. He also accounts for 18.8 of the red zone targets for Arizona. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of his last three games and is coming off of his first 100+ receiving yard game of the season. This is a matchup where he can reach a ceiling and he comes at a very low price.
My Favorite Option: Palmer/Fitzgerald
Jay Cutler has been completely abysmal this season, but this is one of those matchups that is tough to ignore. The Titans have allowed 1,141 passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns (tied for most) to opposing signal callers this season. This will be the Dolphins first home game of the season, so there is a chance things can turn around. He is a tournament play only and someone I will have some exposure to if I play high volume, however, not someone I am comfortable going all-in on by any means. I would pair him up with either Jarvis Landry or Davante Parker.
Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal