NFL Week 17 Stack Em Up: DraftKings
There is one game with a 50+ projected total and a several other games with an over/under of 45 or more points, so there are some of stacks we can target this week.
For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.
Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.
Green Bay Packers
Game Over/Under: 49.5
Packers Implied Points: 26.25
The Packers face the Lions this week and are playing for their division, so both of these teams should bring everything they got to the table. Aaron Rodgers $7,700 carved up Detroit in Week 3, throwing 205 yards and four touchdowns against them. He has been playing lights out since Week 7, averaging 295.8 passing yards and 27.1 fantasy points per game during that stretch, while throwing 26 touchdowns. The Lions are yielding 255 passing yards per game and have given up 28 passing touchdowns this season, so this is definitely a matchup that favors Rodgers.
Jordy Nelson $8,100 has topped 22 fantasy points in four consecutive games. During that timeframe, he is averaging 9.5 targets, 7.5 receptions, 109.3 receiving yards, and 28.2 fantasy points per game, while finding the pay dirt five times. He had his way with the Lions defense earlier in the season, catching six of his seven targets for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Since Week 13, Nelson leads all receivers in yards and touchdowns. He is playing at a very high level right now and should have his way against Detroit this weekend.
Davante Adams $5,700 has been hit or miss in recent weeks, scoring over 23 fantasy points in three of his last seven game and fewer than 10 fantasy points in three game during that stretch. That being said, the targets are still there for Adams as he is averaging 6.7 targets per game in his last seven. He only caught two passes against the Lions earlier in the season, but one of those was for a touchdown. Adams is an option to pair up with Rodgers, but he is volatile and should only be considered in tournaments.
My favorite option: Rodgers/Nelson
Game Over/Under: 49.5
Lions Implied Points: 23.25
Matthew Stafford $6,000 has had a disappointing season this year, but that was to be expected once Megatron retired. However, he has still displayed his upside on several occasions this season, one being against the Packers in Week 3. In that game, he threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns, scoring 30.5 fantasy points. While I am not saying that is exactly what will happen this weekend, I am saying a stat line like that one is not out of the question. Green Bay has allowed +4.5 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks and are yielding 283.1 passing yards per game, while surrendering 29 passing touchdowns, making this a very favorable situation for Stafford who is playing for his division and potentially a playoff spot.
Golden Tate $6,600 is averaging 10 targets per game over his last four and has topped 20 fantasy twice during that time span. He faces off against the worst defense when it comes to defending receivers. The Packers have given up the most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs (24), while surrendering 12.9 receptions and 184.4 receiving yards per game. They have also allowed +3.1 points above expectations to opposing receivers. Considering the matchup and his volume, Tate has to be considered a strong play this week in a game with a lot on the line.
It is very difficult to have much interest in Marvin Jones $4,200 because he has not done much since in quite some time. In fact, he has scored single-digit fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. With that said, he still offers decent upside as we have seen a couple of times this season and his biggest game of the year did come in Week 3 against Green Bay. In that game, he caught six passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns. Jones can be considered a dart throw this week, but one that can certainly pay off.
Eric Ebron $3,600 is coming off of a nice game against the Cowboys where he caught eight of his 12 targets for 93 yards. He continues to see a fair share of targets, averaging 7.5 targets per game over his last four. The Packers have allowed +1.5 points above expectations to opposing tight ends and are yielding 5.3 receptions and 62.3 receiving yards per game, while giving up five touchdowns. If you are looking to differentiate a Stafford stack, Ebron is the way to go.
My favorite option: Stafford/Tate
Game Over/Under: 43
Seahawks Implied Points: 26.5
This game has a low projected total, but the Seahawks still have a healthy implied team total, which is intriguing to me. With much of the attention going to some of the higher projected scoring games, this offense can go overlooked in a great matchup and with something to play for. Seattle could lock in the number two seed with a win and a Falcons loss, so they need to win here. They face the 49ers who are just atrocious defensively, putting Russell Wilson $6,800 in a phenomenal spot. San Francisco is giving up 247.5 passing yards per game and has allowed 29 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. They have surrendered three or more passing touchdowns in a single game five time this year. Wilson is playing well as of late as he has thrown seven touchdown passes and is averaging 289.5 passing yards in his last two games. Look for him to finish the season strong in a game that could be the difference between a first round bye or not.
When Tyler Lockett went down last week that opened the door for a huge game for Doug Baldwin $7,200. He was peppered with 19 targets and came down with 13 receptions for 171 yards and a touchdown. He is averaging 8.1 targets per game for the season, but in his last five games he is averaging 10.2 targets per game. He has also scored a back-to-back games and faces a 49ers team that he torched earlier this season. In Week 3 against San Francisco, Baldwin caught eight passes for 164 yards and a touchdown. Receivers are averaging 11.7 receptions and 166 receiving yards per game against the Niners, while scoring 21 touchdowns (second most allowed by a defense).
The targets have not been there for Jimmy Graham $4,500 in recent weeks, but a matchup against the Niners could be just what the doctor has ordered. One of his best games of the season, came against San Francisco in Week 3. In that contest, he caught six passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. The lack of targets is concerning, but the upside is unquestionable and the matchup is one that favors him. He makes a fine tournament play as his ownership will likely be lower than it should be.
My favorite option: Wilson/Baldwin
Side Notes: I have interest in Matt Ryan $7,400 because of a great matchup and the Vegas numbers. Atlanta is projected to score an absurdly high 32 points in this contest. However, I am also a tad worried that they can do this with their two headed monster at running back because the Saints are terrible against the run. That being said, if you are firing multiple lineups, plugging Ryan in may not be a bad idea. The Bucs are still playing for a potential playoff spot and although they do not determine their fate, they do need to win. They face off against the Panthers who have struggled stopping the pass all season, putting Jameis Winston $6,100 in a favorable spot. Lastly, Tom Brady $7,200 heads to Miami to take on the Dolphins. A win locks up the number one seed in the AFC, so they will go out there and treat this game like a must win. He should have no trouble shredding this defense and is one of the few quarterbacks this week that I would not mind playing naked.
Good luck to all this week. For any questions or concerns, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal