NFL Week 16 Stack Em Up: DraftKings
We have three games 50+ projected total and on other game with an over/under of 47 or more points, so there are some of stacks we can target this week.
For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.
Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.
New Orleans Saints
Game Over/Under: 52
Saints Implied Points: 27.5
After a pair of terrible games, Drew Brees $7,400, bounced back nicely on the road against Arizona last game. This week he heads home to take on the Bucs who are yielding 265 passing yards per game and have surrendered 22 passing touchdowns, as well as, have allowed +1.1 points above expectations to quarterbacks. Going back to 2012 (nine games), Brees is averaging 318 passing yards per game and has tossed 19 touchdowns against the Bucs. It is well known that Brees is a much better quarterback when he is at home compared to him on the road and despite a big performance last week away, he is still averaging more fantasy points and more passing yards per game in the Superdome, while throwing four more touchdowns in the same amount of games. This is the Saints final home game, so I expect them to put on a show.
Much like Brees, Brandin Cooks $6,800 has significant road/home splits, but he too had a huge game last week on the road, catching seven of his eight targets for 186 yards and two touchdowns. Cooks leads the Saints receivers in targets (102) and receiving yards (1,056), while tied for most touchdowns with eight. He averages 10.4 yards per targets and 7.2 targets per game, accounting for 17 percent of the target share in New Orleans, but has at least eight targets in each of the last three games. The matchup is one that favors Cooks as the Bucs are giving up 160.2 receiving yards per game and have allowed 16 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs.
Michael Thomas $6,000 continues to have an impressive rookie season. He is averaging 7.6 targets per game and accounts for 16.5 percent of the Saints target share, as well as, 14.4 percent of the red zone targets. He leads the team in receptions (76) and is tied with Cooks for most receiving touchdowns with eight. Thomas has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but three games this season and has now scored three touchdowns in his last three games. He has displayed his 20+ fantasy point upside on several occasions this season and finds himself in a favorable situation for another big outing.
My favorite option: Brees/Thomas
Game Over/Under: 53
Raiders Implied Points: 28.25
Derek Carr $6,800 faces off against the Colts who are yielding 274.9 passing yards per game and have surrendered 23 passing touchdowns. In his last three home games, Carr is averaging 290 passing yards per game and has thrown seven touchdowns. Despite some rough patches in recent weeks, Carr is still having a Pro Bowl season and has displayed his 20+ fantasy point upside on many instances this season. He should have no issues against the subpar pass defense.
Amari Cooper $6,500 continues to struggle, scoring fewer than scoring fewer than 16 fantasy points in six straight games and single-digit fantasy points in three games during that stretch. Despite the struggles, there is no denying his upside as he has displayed 30+ fantasy point ceiling a couple of times this season. He is averaging 8.4 targets per game and accounts for 22.4 percent of the Raiders target share, leading the team in receiving yards (1,038). While this is favorable situation for him, Cooper remains a volatile option with tons of upside, making him an enticing tournament play.
Michael Crabtree $6,100 leads the Raiders receivers in targets (127), receptions (77), and touchdowns (8). He accounts for 24.3 percent of the team’s target share and 23.8 percent of the red zone targets. He has topped 18 fantasy points in three of the last four games, averaging 6.3 receptions and 66.3 receiving yards per game during that stretch, while scoring two touchdowns. He will likely get a dose of Vontae Davis as Crabtree lines up on the right side in roughly 51 percent of the snaps, where Davis plays 83 percent of the time, but Davis grades out at 45.2 on PFF due to his struggles this season, which is why I am not too concerned about the matchup.
My favorite option: Carr/Crabtree
Game Over/Under: 53
Colts Implied Points: 24.75
Andrew Luck $7,000 heads to the west coast to take on the Raiders in what Vegas has projected as the highest scoring game on the slate. Luck has tossed two or more touchdowns in four consecutive games and has not scored fewer than 18 fantasy points during that stretch. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded expectations 70 percent of the time by an average of 1.07 points. The Raiders are giving up 269.5 passing yards per game and have surrendered 23 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Typically I prefer quarterbacks playing at home, but this game should shootout, putting Luck in a favorable spot.
T.Y. Hilton $7,800 is looking to bounce back after an underwhelming performance in Week 15, but to his defense, it was not the best matchup. He is averaging 9.6 targets per game and accounts for 26.5 percent of the Colts target share, as well as, 18.8 percent of the red zone targets. Hilton has topped 26 fantasy points in two of his last three games and 20 fantasy point in three of his last five. The volume remains consistent for him and he has a favorable matchup this week. The Raiders are yielding 174.5 receiving yards per game and have given up 14 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs.
Donte Moncrief $5,400 has not displayed a ton of upside this season, but does find a way to score a touchdown in just about every game. In fact, he has scored a touchdown in all but two games this year. He is averaging 6.6 targets per game and accounts for 15.6 of the red zone targets. What appeals most to me about Moncrief is the price, which is a tad too cheap for someone as consistent as he is. He has not topped 65 receiving yards in a single game this season, but if there is a week he can erupt for a big game it is this one. At his price, he should easily pay off his salary, with the potential to exceed expectations.
My favorite option: Luck/Hilton/Moncrief
Game Over/Under: 43.5
Jaguars Implied Points: 19.5
Quite frankly, as I am writing this my stomach is somewhat turning as Blake Bortles $5,000 has been abysmal this season. However, his best game of the season did come against this Titans defense and it was a road game. Tennessee has struggled against opposing signal callers, allowing +5.1 points above expectations to the position. They are yielding 281.8 passing yards per game and have given up 22 touchdowns. Bortles has a very low floor, making him an extremely risky play, but he also has some upside and comes at minimum price. I would not heavily invest myself in him this weekend, but I will have some exposure.
If I would have told you at the start of the season that Allen Robinson $4,600 would be at this price in Week 16, chances are you would have laughed at me. Robinson has been one of the biggest disappointments of this season and has now scored single digit fantasy points in four consecutive games. That being said, he is still averaging 9.1 targets per game and has a favorable matchup this week. The Titans have allowed +1.7 points above expectations to opposing receivers and are yielding 15.1 receptions and 186.6 receiving yards per game, while surrendering 16 touchdowns. Considering what he is capable of doing, the matchup, and the low price, Robinson makes an enticing, but volatile tournament option.
Marqise Lee $4,300 has been the more consistent receiver on this offense. In the last seven games, he is averaging 6.9 targets, 3.4 receptions, 52.8 receiving yards, and 12.2 fantasy points per game. That average includes last week game where he filled the stat sheet with a bunch of zeros. If you want to play it safe with this stack, Lee is your best option.
My favorite option: Bortles/Robinson
Good luck to all this week. For any questions or concerns, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal