NFL Week 15 Stack Em Up: DraftKings
We have three games 50+ projected total and a couple of games with an over/under of 46 or more points, so there are some of stacks we can target this week.
For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.
Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.
Game Over/Under: 51.5
Falcons Implied Points: 32.75
Matt Ryan $7,300 is in one of the best spots a quarterback can ask for as he faces a 49ers defense that has allowed +2.9 points above expectations to opposing signal callers. San Francisco is giving up 255.5 passing yards per game and have surrender 26 passing touchdowns (tied for second most in the league). Ryan has not topped 300 passing yards or 22 fantasy points in four straight games, but this is a great situation to get back on track. For the season, he is averaging 311.5 passing yards per game and has thrown 30 touchdowns (tied for 2nd in the league). The Falcons have the highest implied point total of the slate at 32.75 points and I fully expect for him to carve them up nicely.
EDITORS NOTE: Julio Jones has been ruled out for Week 15
Julio Jones $8,100 missed last week’s game with a toe injury and has been unable to practice this week. The trend is not in his favor to suit up this week, but it is something worth monitoring. If he plays and has no restrictions, he has to be considered. Jones leads the league with 1,253 receiving yards and is averaging 8.7 targets per game, accounting for 25.8 percent of the Falcons target share.
Taylor Gabriel $5,600 has seen a significant price increase over the course of the last several weeks, +$1,600 to be exact, but a lot of that has to do with his recent production. Since Week 8, he is averaging 5.0 targets, 3.5 receptions, 66.2 receiving yards, and 16.96 fantasy points per game, while scoring five touchdowns during that stretch. He has seen at least five targets in each of his last five games and has seen the same amount of targets as Mohamed Sanu in that timeframe. This week’s matchup is one that favors him as the 49ers have allowed +1.5 points above expectations to opposing receivers and are surrendering 171.5 receiving yards per game, while giving up 20 receiving touchdowns (tied for most in the league against receivers).
Mohamed Sanu $4,900 has put in a couple of limited practices this week and could return into the starting lineup on Sunday. If that is the case, he can be considered as a potential stacking option with Ryan. He is a tad more volatile than Gabriel has been recently, but Sanu has displayed his 20+ fantasy point upside on several occasions this season. Due to the big red Q next to his name, people could steer clear, making him much lower owned than he should be at this price and in this matchup.
My favorite option: Ryan/Gabriel
Game Over/Under: 51
Cardinals Implied Points: 27
I am always hesitant to recommend Carson Palmer $6,000 due to how many times he has let us down this season in favorable situations. This week is no different, but he has shown a little more life in the last six games, averaging 278.5 passing yards and 20.3 fantasy points per game. He has topped 300 yards three times during that stretch and has thrown 13 touchdowns (he has 20 on the season). The trend appears to be positive for Palmer and he looks on to carry that momentum into Week 15 against the Saints. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 278.8 passing yards per game and have tossed 19 touchdowns against New Orleans, but on the road the Saints are giving up 286 passing yards, including three 300+ passing yard games. The Cardinals have one of the highest implied point totals of the slate so should put up some points.
Larry Fitzgerald $7,000 leads all Cardinals receivers in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, but has not found the pay dirt since Week 5. He is averaging 10 targets per game and accounts for 28.4 percent of the team’s target share, as well as, 25.8 percent of the red zone targets. The volume is there and this is a good matchup as the Saints are yielding 13.4 receptions and 175.4 receiving yards per game, while giving up 11 touchdowns. Eventually he will have a big game and this is the right situation to do so.
J.J. Nelson $3,900 is expected to see an increased role with the release of Michael Floyd. Nelson has not played a ton of snaps in recent games or has not been peppered with a ton of targets, but in the last two weeks, he has scored a touchdown every time he has touched the ball, scoring three touchdowns during that stretch. While that is certainly not sustainable, it does speak volumes of what he is capable of doing. At this price, he offers plenty of upside and presents a ton of value.
DraftKings finally adjusted the price on David Johnson $10,100, but he remains an enticing play even at this inflated salary. Johnson is averaging eight targets per game for the season, but in the last four weeks, he is averaging 10.5 targets per game. He is also averaging a healthy 27.5 fantasy points per game and has topped 30 fantasy points five times this season, including three times in the last four weeks. His role on this offense is absurdly high and he is efficient. He reminds me a lot like Russell Westbrook in basketball where the price is hard to deal with, but the production is just too good to not be intrigued.
My favorite option: Palmer/Fitzgerald
Game Over/Under: 41.5
Bills Implied Points: 26
There were reports that Tyrod Taylor $5,500 was on the verge of being benched, but let’s face it, he is the best quarterback on the Bills roster. This week he has a chance to quiet the critics as he faces the absolute worst pass defense in the league. The Browns are allowing 261.5 passing yards per game and have surrendered a league-high 30 passing touchdowns, yielding at least two touchdowns in all but two games. Taylor has yet to throw for 300 passing yards all season, but does make up for that with his ability to run the ball. It has been a while since we have had a TyGod week, but this is shaping up to be just that. He is playing with a chip on his shoulder and potentially for his job.
Sammy Watkins $5,900 remains way underpriced and has a very good matchup ahead of him. Since returning from the foot injury, he is averaging six targets, 3.3 receptions, 57.3 yards, and 11.1 fantasy points per game, while scoring a touchdown during that three-game stretch. The Browns are giving up 164.6 receiving yards per game and have surrendered 17 touchdowns to opposing wide outs. He is still dealing with the foot injury, making him a volatile play, but at this salary he is worth the risk as he possesses plenty of upside.
Charles Clay $2,800 found the pay dirt for the first time this season in his last game. He has been underwhelming all season, but has averaged a solid 5.2 targets per game. This week he faces one of the worst defenses when it comes to defending tight ends. The Browns have allowed +2.3 points above expectations to the position and are giving up 5.9 receptions and 63.8 receiving yards, while giving up a league-high 11 touchdowns. He is capable of laying a dud, but at this price he also offers plenty of upside in this matchup.
My favorite option: Taylor/Watkins
Game Over/Under: 46.5
Cowboys Implied Points: 26.75
Dak Prescott $6,200 has struggled in his last two games and game log watchers will take notice of that and potentially fade him. However, that can be a big mistake because in his defense, he has played two of the league’s top three pass defenses on the road and prior to those two games, he had topped 20 fantasy points in six consecutive games. This week he has a much more favorable matchup against the Bucs who have allowed +1.0 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks, while yielding 263.9 passing yards per game and 22 passing touchdowns. Prescott should get back on track in this plus matchup and be much lower owned than he should be. You also get the Sunday night hammer when you roster him.
Dez Bryant $6,800 is coming off of a terrible performance, but is in a good spot to bounce back. Since Week 8, he is averaging 8.1 targets, 3.9 receptions, 70.6 receiving yards, and 15.9 fantasy points per game, while scoring five touchdowns during that stretch. He has had two awful games during that timeframe, but has also had three 24+ fantasy point outings. The Bucs are giving up 158.6 receiving yards per game and have surrendered 16 touchdowns. Bryant seems fairly priced for his abilities and will likely go overlooked. This stack is very enticing for me and one I will have exposure to this weekend. It is worth noting that Bryant popped up on the injury report with a back injury, but at this time is expected to play. That being said, keep an eye on his status prior to lock.
My favorite option: Prescott/Bryant
Good luck to all this week. For any questions or concerns, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal