NFL Week 14 Stack Em Up: DraftKings
We have just one game this week with a 50+ projected total, but also several games with an over/under of 46 or more points, so there are plenty of stacks we can target this week.
For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.
Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.
New York Giants
Game Over/Under: 47.5
Giants Implied Points: 22.25
Eli Manning $5,500 faces off against a team he is familiar with and has done decent against throughout his career. In 24 games versus the Cowboys, he is averaging 251.5 passing yards per game and has thrown 47 touchdowns. He has thrown for at least three touchdowns in four of his last seven games against them, including the season opener this year. Despite that lack of passing yards in recent weeks, Manning has thrown at least two touchdowns in five consecutive games. The Cowboys defense has allowed +1.9 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks and are giving up 285.9 passing yards per game, while yielding 20 passing touchdowns (at least one in each game). This is a favorable situation for Manning and one he should be able to take advantage of. You also get the Sunday night hammer for those playing the main slate.
Odell Beckham Jr. $8,000 has really turned it on since returning from bye week. In his last five games, he is averaging 11 targets, seven receptions, 77 yards, and 21.3 fantasy points per game, while scoring five touchdowns during that stretch. He accounts for 27.7 percent of the Giants target share and 33.3 percent of the red zone targets. This is the cheapest he has been all season and is playing the best football he has been all year. The Cowboys have allowed +1.2 points above expectations to opposing wide outs and are yielding 178.8 receiving yards and 15.9 receptions per game, while giving up 13 receiving touchdowns. He is one of my favorite wide receiver plays this week.
You can get creative and stack Manning with Sterling Shepard $4,600 if you are trying to be contrarian. Shepard has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games and is averaging 6.4 targets, 3.4 receptions, and 11.9 fantasy points per game over that stretch. Keep in mind that those averages include a game against the Browns where he was not targeted. He found the pay dirt in the season opener against the Cowboys, so should have no problem finding success against them this week.
My favorite option: Manning/Beckham Jr.
Game Over/Under: 46.5
Seahawks Implied Points: 24.75
Russell Wilson $6,600 has a very good matchup at hand against the Packers who have allowed +2.0 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks. Green Bay is giving up 271.8 passing yards per game and has surrendered 23 passing touchdowns. They have been shredded by quarterbacks for most of the season and Wilson should be able to do the same this week. He is averaging 266 passing yards, 28.8 rushing yards, and 22.02 fantasy points in his last five games, while scoring eight total touchdowns during that span. In a week with not many high projected totals, I am searching for healthy implied team totals and the Seahawks are projected to score over three touchdowns this week.
Doug Baldwin $6,800 typically plays better in Seattle, but this is a favorable matchup so the location is not something I am too concerned about. The Packers are giving up 170.8 receiving yards per game and have allowed 18 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs (second most in NFL). Baldwin is averaging 7.1 targets per game and accounts for 23.1 percent of the Seahawks targets share. He has caught at least six passes in four of his last five games and has scored double-digit fantasy points in five straight. In three career games against Green Bay (including playoffs), Baldwin is averaging 70.7 receiving yards and 5.3 receptions per game, while scoring a touchdown. It is worth noting that he has topped 95 receiving yards and has caught at least six passes in each of his last two games against them. This is a favorable matchup for him and one he should completely take advantage of.
Jimmy Graham $5,500 is playing well and should continue with that momentum this week against a Packers defense that has struggled against tight ends. Green Bay is giving up 5.9 receptions and 70.9 receiving yards, while allowing five touchdowns to the position. Graham is averaging 6.6 targets per game and accounts for 21.5 percent of the Seahawks target share, as well as, 24.6 percent of the red zone targets. He has displayed his 20+ fantasy point upside and has scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight games. Stacking all three is fine by me this week as this Packers defense has struggled through the air all season and that is not changing this week.
My favorite option: Wilson/Baldwin
Game Over/Under: 43.5
Cardinals Implied Points: 22.75
Carson Palmer $5,700 is having a below average season for his standards, but has flashed his upside on several occasions this year. In fact, he has put together a solid six game stretch where he is averaging 311.3 passing yards and 21 fantasy points per game, while throwing 11 touchdowns. This week he faces a Dolphins defense that has shown vulnerability against the pass, giving up 254.2 passing yards per game and yielding 21 passing touchdowns (10 in their last three games). Miami has also allowed +3.7 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks. They got shredded to pieces by Joe Flacco last week. Palmer is rolling as of late and should continue to roll in this favorable matchup.
Larry Fitzgerald $7,100 leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He is averaging 10.1 targets per game and accounts for 24.5 percent of the Cardinals target share, as well as, 26.2 percent of the red zone targets. This passing game clearly funnels through him and in a matchup like this, he should find success. The Dolphins are giving up 162.9 receiving yards per game to receivers and have surrendered 12 receiving touchdowns. Fitzgerald has not found the pay dirt since Week 5, but has still put up solid numbers because of the volume. He offers a high floor and plenty of upside, and will likely go over looked this week.
I cannot write about the Cardinals and not include David Johnson $9,800. There is not much I can say about him that you do not already know. He does it all for this offense, run efficiently and pass catch out of the backfield. He is averaging eight targets per game and accounts for 19.4 percent of the Cardinals target share. Johnson has topped 30 fantasy points in three consecutive games and is averaging 28.2 fantasy points for the season. No other player offers the combination of high floor and upside like Johnson does. If you can find a way to fit him in, I am all for a three man stack here.
The last player I would like to briefly discuss is Jermaine Gresham $2,500. He is absolute minimum price and has been playing well as of late. In his last three games, he is averaging six targets, four receptions, 40 receiving yards, and 12 fantasy points per game, while scoring two touchdowns. The Dolphins have had their troubles against tight ends this season, giving up seven touchdowns and 61.2 receiving yards per game. The have allowed five touchdowns in their last four games, putting Gresham in a really good spot this week.
My favorite option: Palmer/Fitzgerald
Good luck to all this week. For any questions or concerns, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal