NFL Week 11 Stack Em Up: DraftKings
We have three games this week with a 50+ projected total, as well as, a couple games with an over/under of 47 or more points, so there are some stacks we can target this week.
For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack.
Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs.
New York Giants
Game Over/Under: 45
Giants Implied Points: 26.25
The total in this game is not that high, but the Giants do have a healthy implied team total and Eli Manning $6,300 is in a good spot. The Bears have allowed +4.1 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks this season and in their last five games, they are yielding 291.8 passing yards per game and have given up nine touchdowns. Manning has scored 20 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. In that span, he is averaging 274 passing yards and 40.8 pass attempts per game, while tossing 10 touchdowns. In his last three home games, he has thrown three or more touchdowns in each game. This week, he plays at home in a favorable matchup, which has me very intrigued.
Odell Beckham $8,500 is playing at a very high level right now, averaging 103.5 receiving yards, 6.9 receptions, and 25.1 fantasy points per game in his last four games, while scoring five touchdowns. The Bears have been getting torched by receivers, yielding 16.2 receptions and 194.8 receiving yards per game, as well as, giving up 10 touchdowns. They have allowed +1.1 points above expectation to opposing wide outs. Beckham accounts for 26 percent of the Giants target share and 27.5 percent of the red zone targets. The Giants are expected to score a smidge under four touchdowns in this game and based on his role in this offense, you can assume at least one of those scores comes from Beckham. Either way, all the boxes check off for him this week.
Sterling Shepard $4,700 has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and continues to see a healthy amount of targets (6.8 targets per game). He has not had many big games this season, but the fact that he has now scored in two consecutive games, could be a sign of things to come. I still prefer a Beckham and Manning combo, but could see where you go Manning and Shepard for differentiation.
My favorite option: Manning/Beckham
Game Over/Under: 46.5
Steelers Implied Points: 26.75
***KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER FOR THIS GAME***
Ben Roethlisberger $7,500 has a great matchup against Cleveland who he has had success against in the past. In his last two games against them (last season), he combined for 728 passing yards and threw six touchdowns. The Browns have allowed +2.7 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks and are yielding 285.9 passing yards per game to go along with 25 passing touchdowns (most in the league). They have allowed two or more touchdown passes in all but one game and three touchdowns passes in 60 percent of their games. There is some weather concern here, which is something worth monitoring, but if the conditions are not that bad, Big Ben could be in for a huge game.
When you talk about consistency at the receiver position, the first player that comes to mind is Antonio Brown $9,500. He is averaging 11.6 targets per game and accounts for 28.6 percent of the Steelers target share, as well as, 25.6 percent of the red zone targets. He faces a team that he has crushed throughout his career. In 10 games against the Browns, he is averaging 6.7 receptions and 105.4 receiving yards per game, while scoring seven touchdowns. He has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in four consecutive games against them and has double-digit catches and at least one touchdown in each of the last two game versus Cleveland. The Browns have allowed +2.1 points above expectations to opposing wide receivers and are giving up 177.4 receiving yards per game to go along with 14 receiving touchdowns. There is not much to dislike here for Brown, and he and Big Ben should be able to dissect this defense.
There are few times that I really feel great about rostering a quarterback, wide receiver, and running back from the same team, but with the Steelers I feel like I am doing it all wrong by not stacking all three. Le’Veon Bell $8,800 continues to a staple of this offense, averaging 24.2 touches, 9.3 targets, and 132.2 total yards per game. The Browns are just as bad against running backs as they are against every other position, giving up 161.1 total yards per game and 14 touchdowns. Despite missing the first four games and already having a bye week, Bell leads all running backs with 45 receptions this season. He is in a phenomenal spot this week and if the weather is too bad to use the passing game, Bell’s value increases even more.
My favorite option: Roethlisberger/Brown/Bell
Game Over/Under: 52
Colts Implied Points: 27.5
After struggling in his last game on the road against the Packers, Andrew Luck $7,200 returns to Indy fresh off of a bye to take on a team he carved up several weeks ago. He faces the Titans, who in Week 7, he threw for 353 passing yards and three touchdowns against. In their last four meetings, Luck is averaging 291.5 passing yards per game and has thrown 11 touchdowns (nearly three per game) against them. The Titans are yielding 287 passing yards per game and have surrendered 16 passing touchdowns for the season, however, in their last five games, they are giving up 336 passing yards per game and have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each of those games. The Colts also have one of the highest implied point totals of the slate, making this a very appealing situation for Luck.
Since returning from injury, Donte Moncrief $6,100 has scored a touchdown in in each game and it is clear that he and Andrew Luck are picking up right where they left off. In the last two games, he has been peppered with 15 targets, has caught seven passes for 96 yards, and has found the end zone twice. He faces a Titans defense that has allowed +1.9 points above expectations to opposing wide receivers and are giving up 14.3 reception and 182 receiving yards per game, while yielding 10 receiving touchdowns. Moncrief has scored three touchdowns in four games this year and going back to last season, he has scored in all but three games that Luck has been under center.
T.Y. Hilton $7,700 had a big game against the Titans in their last meeting, catching seven of his twelve targets for 133 yards and a touchdown, but that was without Moncrief in the game. In the last two games, Hilton has received 14 targets and has caught seven passes for 107 yards. Although he has seen just seven targets per game in his last two, Hilton did see 23 targets in the first two games of the season when Moncrief played. In his defense, Hilton has been battling a hamstring injury, but coming off of a bye, he should be feeling much better. He remains a high-volume receiver in a pass heavy offense and has big play ability, in a great matchup. Of the two, he will likely be the lowest owned.
My favorite option: Luck/Moncrief
Game Over/Under: 47
Bengals Implied Points: 24.75
Andy Dalton $5,700 is coming off of a poor performance last week against the Giants, but prior to that game, he had topped 20 fantasy points in four straight games. This week he is at home against a Bills defense that has allowed +2.2 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks. Buffalo has allowed six passing touchdowns in their last two games and a combined 597 passing yards. Prior to those two games, they had been good against the pass, but if you look closely they did not face many good quarterbacks. Dalton has multiple touchdowns (rushing & passing) in four of his last five games and 263.8 passing yards per game in that span. This contest has a decent projected total and the Bengals are expected to score over three touchdowns.
I am going to cut right to the chase, if you are going to play Dalton, pair him up with A.J. Green $8,300. Green is averaging 11 targets per game and accounts for 32 percent of the Bengals target share, as well as, 27.5 percent of the red zone targets. He has caught seven or more passes in three consecutive games and has topped 100 receiving yards and scored a touchdown in two of his last three games. Green has displayed his 30+ fantasy points upside on three different occasions this season. He faces a Bills defense that has allowed +2.3 points above expectations to opposing wide outs. In the last five games, receivers are averaging 170.6 receiving yards and one touchdown per game against Buffalo. This may not be the best matchup for a receiver, but it is definitely not one to avoid. Green tends to go under the radar most weeks and I anticipate that will be the case once again this week.
My favorite option: Dalton/Green
Good luck to all this week. For any questions or concerns, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal