NFL Value Plays: Week 17
Let’s find some low-cost value plays at each position so you can mix/match your lineups to take down your tournaments this week.
Value thresholds for each site:
FanDuel: $6,500 or less for QB, $6,000 or less for RB/WR, $5,500 or less for TE, $4,500 for K/DEF.
DraftKings: Less than $5,900 for QB, less than $5,000 for RB/WR, less than $4,000 for TE and less than $3,000 for DEF.
FantasyDraft: Less than $10,600 for QB, less than $10,000 for RB/WR, less than $8,000 for TE and less than $6,000 for DEF.
Tyrod Taylor, BUF at MIA — $7,300 (FD), $5,300 (DK), $10,800 (FDRAFT) – The Bills must win to stay alive for the playoffs. After scoring 23+ fantasy points two weeks ago against the Fins, Tyrod Taylor has a chance to audition for his next team by finishing 2017 with a bang in Miami. Taylor faces a bottom ten ranked Dolphins pass coverage unit and tossed for over 220 yards and accounted for two touchdowns in the red zone in Week 15 against Miami.
Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. HOU — $6,600 (FD), $5,500 (DK), $10,600 (FDRAFT) – Brissett, who has had a string of tough matchup recently, now faces the faded Houston Texans at home in Indy this week. Brissett threw for over 300 yards and scored 23 fantasy points the first time they played and now gets an even weaker team (rated 30th in weighted DVOA) this time around.
Derrick Henry, TEN vs. JAX — $5,800 (FD), $5,500 (DK), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – DK has him priced above the value line here, but not FanDuel and FantasyDraft, both of whom have a great value price on Henry, all alone in the Titans backfield, finally, after the injury to DeMarco Murray. Jacksonville has been lethal defensively, but have nothing to play for, playoff seed wise, so we may see the finally free Henry pile up some big numbers here for the Titans, who need to win to make the playoffs.
Carlos Hyde, SF vs. LARM – $6,900 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $10,400 (FDRAFT) – A suddenly stable offense (18th in weighted DVOA) and a massive role in it, Hyde is inexplicable low priced on DK at $4,900. The Rams are still playing for a bye, so the guards will not be down, however they are in the bottom half of the league in defensive line adjusted yards and 18th overall against the run.
Branden Oliver, LACH vs. OAK – $4,500 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – IF Melvin Gordon cannot play Week 17 with his injured ankle, then Oliver may be the most tenured, most healthy back the Chargers have for their must-win game against the Raiders to get into the playoffs.
Josh Doctson, WAS vs. NYG – $5,800 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,700 (FDRAFT) – 13 targets! Two catches. That was last week, but now the Redskins get the woebegone Giants, who just got hammered by the Cardinals. Washington needs to know if Doctson can be their WR1 going into next season and would imagine will be a huge part of the passing plan this week.
Tyrell Williams, LACH vs. OAK – $5,200 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,000 (FDRAFT) – Back to back weeks of solid target volume for Williams (7,8) and now gets matched up with the overmatched Raiders secondary, probably against Dexter McDonald, who has over a 100 NFL rating against this season. With Gordon hobbling, the team could turn to Rivers to deliver the win needed to stay in the playoff hunt.
Randall Cobb, GB at DET — $5,500 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – Neither team is playoff eligible. Cobb is in the slot against the Lions and Teez Tabor (his real name). Tabor has a 99 rating against in his rookie season (171 snaps) and Cobb would be a nice, safe alternative for Brett Hundley with Devante Adams, his former favorite WR, out.
Antonio Gates, LACH vs. OAK – $5,700 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $7,200 (FDRAFT) – Haha! Hope you got your dirt dog min priced Gates last week because the sale is over after a successful week in the Meadowlands! His price leapt on all three sites, but he still fits our criteria on FDRAFT and is still a good play this week with Gordon potentially out and Rivers trying to throw their way into another playoff berth.
Charles Clay, BUF at MIA – $5,600 (FD), $3,700 (FD), $7,500 (FDRAFT) – With Taylor throwing, the Bills still in play for the playoffs, and a lack of established WR on the team, Clay is a safe guess for target practice for Taylor. Also, the Dolphins are 30th in DVOA against the TE this season. Clay has 19 targets the last two weeks for the Bills.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins — $4,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $5,600 (FDRAFT) – Yes, the Bills defense has been awful but they HAVE to win this game against the 30th ranked turnovers per drive offense in the league, led by Jay Cutler with nothing to play for. The Bills are still ranked 6th in turnovers per drive on defense. Bet against Jay Cutler? Why not!
Good luck this week! – JW