NFL – The Nutz – Week 5
Aaron Rodgers GB at DAL – $8,100 (Cash/GPP)
It is pretty clear this week Rodgers is the best play, but you have to pay up for him. With all the midrange options at wide receiver you can definitely do it. He is efficient, with Ty Montgomery doubtful for the game he should do even more through the air, and he has already passed for over 300 yards in three of four games this year. Dallas has bad corners and a huge team total of 25.25 certainly doesn’t hurt.
Carson Palmer ARZ at PHI – $5,800 (Cash/GPP)
While there is obvious concern with the offensive line of Arizona and pressure the Eagles will be bringing at home, the sheer volume of passes Palmer has attempted this year averaging 45.75 per game resulting in 300 yard games in three of four this year with no end in sight makes him a great play. The Eagles secondary has been getting roasted evidenced by the team allowed the sixth most fantasy points to the QB position this season.
Le’Veon Bell vs JAX – $9,500 (Cash/GPP)
The rare reverse funnel defense of the century, Jacksonville, is allowing a 5.7 YPC rate yet only allowing 147 passing yards per game. You can run as much as you want (the YPC rate is .6 yards worse than the next worse defense), but the secondary is elite and hard to get over on. Coach Tomlin is smart and I expect him to realize the vulnerability of the Jaguars on the ground and use Bell extensively.
Carlos Hyde SF at IND – $6,900 (GPP)
Offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan produces high scoring fantasy running backs especially if they are talented work horses like Hyde. We already see evidence in Hyde’s YPC rise to 4.9 so far this year compared to his career average of 4.23. The offensive line is blocking well and creating holes. Hyde’s usage in the pass game is awesome as well seeing six targets in three of four games this season.
Facing an IND defense allowing 4 YPC I like Hyde’s chance at an enormous game, especially with his extreme red zone usage. Inside the opponents 20 Hyde has the second most touches in the league this year at 17 and is tied for first among RBs in touches there if you include his four RZ targets in that area.
Thomas Rawls SEA at LAR – $3,700 (GPP)
If you watched the Wednesday show on FamVice you know I love Thomas Rawls this week. People are getting on Eddie Lacy and they are on the wrong guy. Pete Carrol talked how Lacy looked good but he said “with Chris going down were lucky we have Rawls”.
Now C.J. Prosise is out. I expect Rawls to take Chris Carson’s role being fully healthy vs a Rams defense allowing a 4.9 YPC rate and get 15-20 carries including goal line work. I doubt the Seahawks want to give Lacy a bunch of carries. At a price tag so cheap, Rawls has a floor of 10 touches, and an upside for 30 in a quality match up with a decent team total of 23.5.
Keenan Allen LAC at NYG – $7,200 (GPP)
The Giants have the 25th ranked pass DVOA defense, but they have one strength that can keep us off the top WRs facing them, Janoris Jenkins. Allen runs 54% of his routes out of the slot, so he will avoid Jenkins for a good part of the game and I expect his targets to be elevated due to my expectations of Jenkins covering Tyrell Williams. The 10 targets per game is beautiful and the Chargers are always playing comeback so we can feel comfortable that those targets will repeat or even exceed that number.
Randall Cobb GB at DAL – $6,700 (Cash/GPP)
Randall Cobb is too cheap vs DB Orlando Scandrick who is a poor defender in the slot where the Dallas defense funnels opponents. Cobb is a very strong cash play and you feel great about the high team total of 25.25, the third highest on the slate.
Devante Parker MIA vs TEN – $6,600 (GPP)
This is the week. Week one was supposed be the one, but the game didn’t play so finally, the Parker spot is here. Tennessee stacks the box every snap and let’s their terrible corners get shafted play after play.
Parker will see Brice McCain, Adoree Jackson, and LeShaun Sims, all below average CBs that helped put together the 29th ranked passing DVOA defense through four games. Parker is 10th in yards per route run so far this season at 2.11 and is averaging nine targets a game, but should see even more work if Cutler can have a decent game and move the offense. Jarvis Landry – $5,500 is a fine play as well who you can use in cash and is good bet for 8-12 targets.
Dez Bryant vs GB – $6,500 (Cash/GPP)
The Dez boom spot has arrived. He is getting the targets, averaging 10 per outing, and has red zone usage with six looks so far there and they haven’t been able to get him the ball due to matchup as much as they would like.
Dez has faced top 15 corners Janoris Jenkins, Aqib Talib/Chris Harris, Patrick Peterson, and Trumaine Johnson this year who isn’t on the aforementioned guys’ level, but still a very good corner. He is far underpriced and should muscle around CBs Damarious Randall, Kevin King, and Morgan Burnett that are part of the 21st pass ranked DVOA defense this year. In addition, Dallas has the highest team total on the slate at 27.75.
Evan Engram NYG vs LAC – $4,000 (Cash/GPP)
The position is disgusting this week, so if I can get a guy I know is a focus of the offense and will be a large part of a passing attack that is almost guaranteed to attempt over 40 passes due to the terrible run game I am going to do it. The matchup is not great, but Engram is not a typical tight end. He is lining up all over and running a ton of routes. He was drafted to catch passes and he will continue to do so this week.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins NYJ @ CLE – $3,500 (Cash/GPP)
ASJ should go ham vs Cleveland with the Browns being a historically bad defense vs tight ends. He’ll destroy Joe Schobert, who he’ll predominantly be facing, and I expect him to be open all game. Josh McCown loves to hit his TEs as we all remember the fantasy season he supported for Gary Barnidge.
Steelers vs JAX – $3,900 (Cash)
You gotta pay up to get them, but there is serious upside at home vs Blake Bortles, the known pick six machine. This year PIT has allowed the second least pass yards per game, is the 4th ranked DVOA pass defense, they have allowed the 10th least rush yards per game, and should get some pressure to generate turnovers shown by being fifth in adjusted sack rate in the league this season. I expect the Steelers to generate a lead and force Bortles to take shots while the blitzes come a flying at him which sounds like a recipe for success to me.
Detroit vs CAR – $3,200 (GPP)
Cam Newton has a 5-5 TD to turnover ratio this year and has a history of turnover issues. I am not convinced Newton has returned after performing vs a terrible Pats defense. Detroit is the 5th pass dvoa defense and is 14th vs the rush and is at home. They have been generating turnovers all season and alarmingly have defensive touchdowns in three of their four games.