NFL – The Nutz – Week 3

These are the pure best plays on DraftKings, even the chalk, with some pivots at every position. I am not going to waste time deeply explaining plays you already know so the chalk will have a note or two. Each player will have a label for some overarching indication.

Quarterback

Matt Stafford – DET vs ATL – $6,200 (Cash/GPP)

Stafford is playing lights out so far this season and was successful vs two top 10 defenses. Now he faces Atlanta, in a game where the total is the second highest on the slate.

Kirk Cousins – WAS vs OAK – $6,100 (GPP)

Cousins is my top play on the week. He will be in a shootout with highest game total of week at 54 and is the dog so we expect them to be playing catchup. The Redskins WRs are all in elite individual match ups as well as the TE Jordan Reed. Look past the recency bias after two difficult match ups and get on Cousins before he becomes the play again. This price is ridiculously low.

Jay Cutler – MIA at NYJ – $6,100 (Deep GPP)

The Jets are a pile of garbage defense, and the game is easy to full stack. Devante Parker and Jarvis Landry are both in elite spots, as well as Ajayi. The only issue here is if the Jets will put enough points up to keep Miami with their foot on the pedal, but with how bad the Dolphins defense is I can see a scenario where that occurs. This is a deep GPP play.

Running Back

Le’Veon Bell – PIT at CHI – $8,800 (Cash/GPP)

Bell returned to his workhorse ways with 31 opportunities last week. While it isn’t the best match up, we do expect Pittsburgh to put up points and in the red zone last week Bell had five carries, none of which he could capitalize on. It seems this week people are paying up at WR and many are overlooking Bell. Let’s not forget the upside he has shown over the past few years, even with Martavis Bryant in the picture.

Jay Ajayi – MIA at NYJ – $7,700 (Cash/GPP)

In the first game of the year for Miami he had 28 touches and two targets, confirming Ajayi will resume his role as a bell cow. We expect Miami to lead this game and control the ball through the run game as evidenced by the Dolphins being 6.5 point favorites. So far this year the Jets have allowed the 26th most 2nd level yards and the 29th open field rushing yards. Last year when they had Sheldon Richardson, who is no longer there, they were still bad at 16th in second level yards allowed and 26th in open field yards.

Ty Montgomery – GB vs CIN – $6,900 (Cash/GPP)

CIN has allowed the second most rushing yards per game so far this year with a 4.2 YPC clip and GB is favored by 9. This is a positive game script and we often see the CIN line soften up for the few games Vontaze Burfict misses every year. This is the last week of his suspension so enjoy taking advantage before the line shores up.

Mike Gillislee – NE vs HOU – $5,700 (GPP)

LeGarrette Blount equation.

Lamar Miller – HOU at NE – $5,000 (Deep GPP)

Even in a negative game script vs Jacksonville we saw Miller get 17 attempts. NE is the worst by far in the league in allowed rushing through 2 weeks. According to Football Outsiders they are 32nd in run stuff percentage, 32nd in second level yards, and 32nd in open field yards. I can see a scenario where Jadeveon Clowney and J.J Watt cause some problems in the first few Patriot drives and Miller meets value in the first half due to the score being close and Houston sticking to Bill O’Briens preferred run heavy approach. This is also a leverage play off of Mike Gillislee.

Isaiah Crowell – CLE at IND – $4,800 (GPP)

The Browns haven’t been favored since 2015 at home and away from home since 2014. If there was ever a game script for the talented Crowell to get it going this is it.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Green – CIN at GB – $8,100 (Cash/GPP)

Green was quoted this week saying “I feel like – no disrespect to nobody else – that ball should be mine somewhere somehow. … I want the ball.” Tyler Eifert has already been ruled out for this week.

Green will face the Demarious Randall and Davon House, the two terrible starting cornerbacks the Packers are rolling out. We picked on them last week and we will again throughout the season.

The Bengals will have their new OC Bill Lazor this week in his first game and he tends to be a pass heavy coach, as he was apparently fired from his OC job with Miami due to not adapting the heavy run style approach interim HC  Dan Campbell desired. These are all reasons to believe that A.J. Green should succeed in this spot where he will get voluminous opportunities in an incredible match up where they will be behind.

Michael Crabtree – $7,400 and Amari Cooper – $7,100 – OAK at WAS (GPP)

Josh Norman did not shadow in his first two games vs Alshon Jefferey and Sammy Watkins. If Norman stays on his typical left side as he has the first two games he will see Crabtree 41% and Cooper 25%. With this information we would want to play Cooper, but I am not sure that this trend will continue. One of them will go off and the early lean is Cooper.

Jarvis Landry – MIA at NYJ – $6,800 (Cash/GPP)

Landry will face Buster Skrine who allowed a very high 1.16 yards / cover snap last year. For reference, an elite CB like Chris Harris Jr. is .66. According to PFF Skrine is one of worst graded CBs over last 5 years living off name value. Landry was getting open being second in week 2 in terms of average separation at 4.2 feet.

Kelvin Benjamin – CAR vs NO – $6,700 (GPP)

The first round pick who was supposed to shadow Benjamin, Marshon Lattimore, who has been pretty good so far holding Brandin Cooks to 37 yards on four targets has been ruled out for week 3 with a concussion. The replacement matchup is much more favorable vs Ken Crawley who will give up four inches to Benjamin and allows .3 fantasy points per route in coverage through 2016 and the first 2 games this year, a bottom 30 mark in the league. Greg Olson is out and we expect this to lead to more targets for Benjamin.

DeVante Parker – MIA at NYJ – $6,400 (GPP)

Parker is vs Juston Burris, a bottom 15  corner through two weeks, according to PFF grades, and he was a below average corner last year as well. The upside is immense with Parker. In your stacks run it back with Jermain Kearse facing off with the weak CB Xavien Howard

Terrelle Pryor – WAS vs OAK – $5,900 (GPP)

Much has been made of Pryor’s struggles early in the year. In the first game he had 11 targets for six receptions and 66 yards. That is beautiful usage and they didn’t connect on a long bomb that easily could have worked out. Last week Pryor had a tough match up last week vs Trumaine Johnson, an elite corner. He saw only four targets as a result of this. This week Pryor faces predominantly rookie  Gareon Conley, who just got mashed by Jermaine Kearse allowing 16 yards per reception and two touch downs.

On the other side he will face David Amerson, a bottom 10 CB in 2016 allowing 1.49 yards per cover snap. I expect his usage to reach its ceiling because I expect the Raiders to put a ton of points on the board, supported by Vegas favoring Oakland in this huge 55 point total. Pryor said it in an interview this week that he is going to have a huge season and it starts this week vs the Raider’s. Expect him to get back to the 10-12 target range and capitalize on this incredible spot. You are buying low at this price.

Rashard Higgins – CLE at IND – $4,000 (Cash/GPP)

Britt is looking pedestrian and that has opened a role for Higgins. He had 11 targets last week for seven receptions and 95 yards due to the exodus of Corey Coleman. He was a fifth round pick out of Colorado State with elite athletic skills posting a SPARQ-x of 85.9, fourth in draft class among WRs.

Tight End

Jordan Reed – WAS vs OAK – $5,400 (GPP)

I think Reed will be good to go as he was just listed with a chest bruise on the injury report and he is in a perennial great match up for TEs. Oak was 8th worst in terms of fppg allowed last year and we know Reed has 3 touchdown upside. If he sits, pivot to $3K Vernon Davis.

Jack Doyle – IND vs CLE – $3,600 (Cash/GPP)

Cleveland was worst vs TE last year allowing 13 tds to the position and they are the worst thus far this year. Jacoby Brissett’s  start immediately provided a boost for Doyle with him seeing eight targets last week. Doyle showed upside last year and has the best possible match up at a cheap $3.6K price tag.

Zach Miller – CHI vs PIT – $3,000 (Cash/GPP)

Miller is too cheap for his role in this offense. He has seen 6 and 9 targets in the first two weeks and has a good match up vs the Steelers who were a bottom 12 unit vs the position last year.