NFL FanDuel Value Plays Week 10
Let’s find some low-cost value plays at each position so you can mix/match your lineups to take down your tournaments this week. Value here are represented by $6,900 or less for quarterbacks, $6,500 or less for running backs/wide receivers, $5,500 or less on tight ends, $4,500 for kicker and $4,500 and lower for defenses.
We are looking at Sun-Mon slate only, so if you have any questions, hit me up in the comments area or reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Carson Wentz – PHI vs. ATL – $6,800 – After early success, his price has been gently falling and now he faces an Atlanta Falcons team that has given up the most FD points per game to opposing QBs. Also, there is a 50-point game total and the Eagles have resigned themselves to playing Darren Sproles as their main running back, at least until the ball gets inside the five-yard line. All of it adds up to a very solid passing day for Wentz, who has attempted 43 and 47 passes the last two weeks, underlining the increasing desire of the team to pass.
Darren Sproles – PHI vs. ATL -$5,100 – More of a cash game play than tourneys, it is hard to overlook the amount of touches Sproles is getting in this offense. His 12-15 carries and 7-9 target volume is enough to get past that Ryan Mathews is the guy who will get the ball inside the five, but little else. With a game that expects to be high-scoring, Sproles’ role as RB1 here is a great value at 5.1K.
LeGarrette Blount – NE vs. SEA – $6,400 – Seattle is a top defense, overall, against the run, but a closer look tells us they are 12th in Adjusted Line Yards (Football Outsiders), 20th against power runs and 15th in stuffs. All this tells us is that Blount’s style of running, along with the Patriots being touchdown plus favorites, is in play here.
Ty Montgomery – GB at IND – $6,500 – Now we know that they wanted to limit Montgomery’s snaps as he recovered from sickle-cell traits, but he will see a little more action in a great game/matchup against Tennessee. Even Mike McCarthy called Montgomery a three-down back on Wednesday which, along with a tasty 50-point game total, puts Ty back on the radar this week.
Mark Ingram – NO vs. DEN – $6,300 & Tim Hightower – NO vs. DEN – $6,200
Denver’s defense is often off-limits to other players, but their run defense is sub-par, ranking 23rd in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric. The Saints are committed to running the ball and both guys are good tourney plays as we saw with Latavius Murray in Week 9 against this defense.
Jordan Matthews – PHI vs. ATL – $5,900 – You should be getting the sense of how targetable this Atlanta defense is, and Matthews, despite the lack of big play upside, is a tremendous target vacuum. Matthews has 25 targets over the past two weeks and has made value+ at his salary each week.
Michael Thomas – NO vs. DEN – $6,400– Thomas finally gets a salary bump but still falls below our value threshold. The matchup against Denver will keep the masses off him, but it is still a home game with Drew Brees so there will be some attention. Rightfully so, as he piled up two road touchdowns last week, got another eight targets and gets the best individual matchup of the group, Bradley Roby.
Kenny Britt – LAR at NYJ- $6,400 – Britt is also almost out of the value range, which indicates the relative consistency of Britt in this Rams passing game. Britt has averaged seven targets over the past four games and with the Jets daring teams to throw against them, and allowing the ninth most pass attempts per game, this is a trend that should continue. In case you are worried about too much Todd Gurley ruining things, the Rams have attempted the third most passing attempts per game over the past three weeks.
Julian Edelman – NE vs. SEA – $6,000 – It’s time to play Edelman, who has seen his salary drop $1,200 over the past month. Seattle is a tough defense on the outsides, but is 17th in the short passing game and Edelman, with Brady back, has 35 targets over the past four games. Cash game over GPP with him, as always.
Zach Miller – CHI at TB – $5,400 – Bucs dare teams to pass against them and Miller has 25 targets over the past three weeks. Miller’s 12.30 FD points last week easily made value and should be in line for a similar result this week.
Zach Ertz – PHI vs. ATL – $4,600 – Ok, do not think that I am advocating playing EVERY Eagle, but there is one at each position to choose from. Ertz got eight targets last week and the Falcons are 28th in short pass defense.
Lance Kendricks – LA at NYJ – $4,500 – Kendricks has been locked in recently, getting eight, nine and 12 targets in each of the last three weeks. With the Jets taking away the run against teams, the Rams will need to throw. Case Keenum has thrown 53 and 46 times over the past two games, meaning he will need to find receivers like Britt (as described above) and Kendricks to move the ball effectively.
Kickers and Defense:
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons – $4,400 – With all that love for the Eagles offense, it makes sense that their defense will be in position to get some turnovers in a high possession, high scoring game. The Eagles force the third most turnovers per drive and being at home gives them a further edge.
Chandler Catanzaro – ATL vs. SF – $4,500 – Highest team total (over 30), at home, with a 10+ point edge in a game where the Cardinals will get many drive chances against the high pace 49ers.
Good luck this week! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.