Hello fellow #FamVice members and welcome to another season of NFL! This is literally my, as well as many other DFSers, favorite time of the year! Not only because we now have an excuse to sit around and watch football games all Sunday afternoon, but also because of the potential money that there is to be made! With that said… let’s get it!
First off, my goal with this article each week will be to:
- Teach you how to identify which “Cash Games” you should be entering based off of which contests you have the best odds of winning. In my opinion one of the most under-rated and overlooked factors to DFS success is contest selection and I will do my best to help you identify these contests for not just NFL, but for any sport.
- Until you get the hang of it, and you will, I will link several contests from each of the major sites that meet our criteria each week. I will post these links at the end of the article and all you have to do is simply click on them and enter.
Let’s start off with a basic explanation of what a “Cash Game” is. For those unfamiliar, a cash game is any of the following:
- Double Ups
- 3-20 person leagues
- Single Entry GPP’s (Depending on the setup and field size)
- Multiplier contests (If they are small field sizes that offer more than 1 payout positions)
These are the types of contests that we want to target in order to build up our bankrolls. These contests have the best odds when structured correctly and will help you to build a cushion as GPP’s (Tournaments) can quickly drain you resources since the payout structure is generally very top heavy.
Ok, so with that out of the way, let’s identify why week 1 of NFL is so profitable. First, Fanduel typically undershoots week 1 each year. They typically have less large field cash games available compared to DraftKings who usually goes insanely big on their week 1 contests. This results in massive overlay, which is when a contest doesn’t fill thus reducing your competition even further. Because of this, I tend to play heavier on DraftKings than FanDuel but there are still games to be had on both. In addition to this, although not as prevalent as it once was the influx of new inexperienced and casual players who are unfamiliar with DFS strategy means the competition in these contests are usually softer as well. All of these factors lead to more value which in turn leads to increased potential for more $$$.
So finally, let’s get to the strategy that I use to pick my “Cash Games”!
The general rule of thumb that I follow is that you want to always have at least 100 other people that you’re playing against in cash games. With ”Single Entry” contests this is not an issue because if the contest size is over 100 people and it’s single entry then you’re already there. So when you see these contests feel free to enter them the moment that you see them as this meets our criteria right off the bat. With that said, the larger the field sizes in these contests the better.
Now, when it comes to multi-entry double ups and 50/50’s, what you need to do to determine whether a contest is a good cash game candidate is to take the total entry size of say 35,000 then divide that by the maximum amount of entries allowed per person which let’s say for this example is 150 max entries.
Doing the math, that number is 233 (35,000 entry size / 150 max entries per person)
So in theory, if everyone max entered this contest you’d be playing against 232 other people.
So our example tourney is equivalent to a 233 person single entry contest which is great! Again, the higher the number of opponents the better odds we have as we only need to place in the top 50% to win most cash games.
Now on the opposite end of the spectrum, you will also see some contests that have say 5,000 entries with a 150 max enter per person. So using that same formula you could potentially be playing against only 32 other people (5,000 entries / 150 max entries per person = 33). As you can see, 33 is below the 100 person rule we talked about which means you would have to be in the top 15 to win… That’s terrible odds for a cash game… Skip it! Using this basic strategy you will be well on your way to building your bankroll.
Lastly, I will delve further into some more simple tricks that I use in future articles but for now one other good strategy we can use for week 1 is to have your “Cash Lineup” set and ready on Sunday morning with 30 minutes left and then just sit in the lobby and look for all of the contests that aren’t going to fill. As you identify these contests, just mass enter your lineups into them as it’s not uncommon to see large contests only fill about 60-70%, meaning 5 out of every 7 lineups will potentially double up.
I hope you enjoyed my first article and I look forward to doing this each week. If you have any questions please feel free to hit me up in Slack or in the comments below.
Now for the links!
DraftKings Cash Contests:
This year FanDuel is not offering any double up or 50/50’s over 100 entries. They do have a bunch of Single Entry tournaments however and you can simply select “Single Entry” on the filter on the left side of the page under the entry fee slider. Single entry GPP’s are very similar to cash games and I tend to use my cash lineup in these. There will likely be overlay in these contests so I recommend if playing on FanDuel to load up on these tournaments. With that said, I will have the majority of my action on DraftKings again this year.
Thanks for reading now let’s make some money!