NFL Value Plays: Week 5
Let’s find some low-cost value plays at each position so you can mix/match your lineups to take down your tournaments this week.
Value thresholds for each site:
FanDuel: $6,900 or less for QB, $6,500 or less for RB/WR, $5,500 or less for TE, $4,500 for K/DEF.
DraftKings: Less than $5,500 for QB, less than $5,000 for RB/WR, less than $4,000 for TE and less than $3,000 for DEF.
FantasyDraft: Less than $10,600 for QB, less than $10,000 for RB/WR, less than $8,000 for TE and less than $6,000 for DEF.
We are looking at the whole Week 1 slate, so if you have any questions, hit me up in the Comments Area, Premium Slack Chat or reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Tyrod Taylor, BUF at CIN – $5,000 (DK), $10,000 (FDRAFT) – He is better at home, for sure, but among the unproven QBs down in this range, Taylor stands out, even against a tough Bengals defense that ranks in the top half of the league so far. The Bills, though, have a top 10 passing game of their own, according to PFF advanced stats, and Taylor has the highest projected ceiling of any of the QBs below the number this week. Tourney play, of course, but also has the highest floor of the value QBs this week as well.
Latavius Murray, MIN at CHI (MON) – $6,000 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – With Dalvin Cook out, Murray is next in line for carries against a Bears defense that is second to last in defensive adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders.
Andre Ellington, ARI at PHI – $5,400 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – Ellington is a good PPR play as Palmer has been looking to him out of the backfield (14 targets last week against SF) and the Cardinals will have to pass against an Eagles front that is second in defensive adjusted line yards.
Jonathan Stewart, CAR – $5,700 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – Stewart is still getting the carries (26 carries last two weeks), and has done well the last two weeks in efficiency (125 yards in those 26 carries). He now faces a Lions defense that is fifth worst in defensive adjusted line yards and, while the red zone looks look split between he and Christian McCaffrey, Stewart has out touched him inside the 10, six touches to two.
Aldrick Robinson, SF @ IND – $4,600 (FD), $3,100 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – based solely on 12 targets last week against ARI, it has now been decided this week is Aldrick Robinson Week, so this might actually be a nice place to fade in tourneys, especially since SF is still the 29th most efficient pass offense. Still, Robinson does still open up quite a bit with his low, low price tag.
Jaron Brown, ARI at PHI – $4,500 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Quick, tell me who the #2 WR on ARI is going to be? No clue? Alright, well, we will go with who it was last week, and that was Jaron Brown, who caught eight balls on 12 targets for 105 yards and played over 90% of the overall snaps for the second straight week. The Cardinals, as mentioned with Andre Ellington in the running back’s section, will likely be super pass happy here, and that will suit Brown very well if he is in for the same workload as last week.
Marvin Jones, DET vs. CAR – $5,500 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,100 (FDRAFT) – Jones is intriguing here as Carolina has been beat fairly bad on the outsides and Jones is silently running 91-97% of the team’s snaps this season. If Kenny Golladay is out again, Marvin’s teammate, TJ Jones, at 3K, could be fun, too.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ at CLE – $5,500 (FD), $3,500 (DK), $7,000 (FDRAFT) – Could be cash day ASJ this week as the league’s most fantasy friendly defense to tight ends, Cleveland, hosts Seferian-Jenkins this week. ASJ has ten targets and nine catches over the past two weeks, playing in 77% of the team’s snaps.
Tyler Kroft, CIN vs. BUF – $5,500 (FD), $3,200 (DK), $6,300 (FDRAFT) – Chasing points a little, but the common sense applies here. The Bengals are running a quicker trigger offense to mask their OLINE woes and keep Andy Dalton clean, which is essential for him so that he does not morph into a puddle of water behind the line of scrimmage. Kroft fills in for Tyler Eifert, a prolific pass catcher in this offense and has run up, according to PFF Advanced Stats, the 12th best yards per route run over the past two weeks, above Travis Kelce and the gent previously listed here, Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
Kickers and Defense:
Oakland Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens – $4,300 (FD), $2,900 (DK), $5,600 (FDRAFT) – Baltimore turns it over the most of all the road teams this week, per drive. Oakland has a better defense than they’ve shown, scoring second highest in PFF Advanced stats for overall defense rating. Oakland’s top ten pass rush (per Football Outsiders) will make things hard for Baltimore’s okay offensive line, especially in Oakland.
Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans – $4,100 (FD), $2,700 (DK), $5,200 (FDRAFT) – No team has been given the short straw this season quite like Miami. Now, the finally catch a break. They are at home and likely to face a Tennessee team that whose strengths play to Miami’s strengths (run defense) and get a backup QB (Matt Cassel) to boot.
Nick Folk, TB vs. NE (THUR) – $4,500 (FD) – High total kicker at home.
Cody Parkey, MIA vs. TEN – $4,500 (FD) – No line yet, but good conditions, likely home favorite, positive game flow.
Good luck this week! – JW