NFL Value Plays: Week 3
Let’s find some low-cost value plays at each position so you can mix/match your lineups to take down your tournaments this week.
Value thresholds for each site:
FanDuel: $6,900 or less for QB, $6,500 or less for RB/WR, $5,500 or less for TE, $4,500 for K/DEF.
DraftKings: Less than $5,500 for QB, less than $5,000 for RB/WR, less than $4,000 for TE and less than $3,000 for DEF.
FantasyDraft: Less than $10,600 for QB, less than $10,000 for RB/WR, less than $8,000 for TE and less than $6,000 for DEF.
We are looking at the whole Week 1 slate, so if you have any questions, hit me up in the Comments Area, Premium Slack Chat or reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Andy Dalton, CIN – $5,100 (DK) – With both pass defenses in this game looking terrible, and both run defenses looking stronger than their passing, this could lead to a lot more passing. With CIN changing their OC this week, Dalton may be in better shape against a softer defense to score at his extremely low price tag on DK.
DeShone Kizer, CLE – $6,900 (FD) $5,000 (DK), $10,000 (FDRAFT) – Cleveland has been running over 20% no-huddle this season and Kiser has benefitted from it. Now, against a poor defense in Indianapolis, that could translate to more plays/points as well.
Tarik Cohen, CHI – $5,600 (FD) – Cohen is well known at this point, but what may not be as well known is that his Actual Opportunity per game is fifth among RB so far this season, per Pro Football Focus, and he has actually produced more than even expected, statistically, from those high amount of opportunities. This should not change in a home matchup against the Steelers.
Chris Carson, SEA – $6,000 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT)- Chris Carson has taken the reins in Seattle, who is perennially one of the most run-heavy play call teams in the league. Carson gets a Tennessee Titans defense that has certainly stumbled out of the gates this season, landing 26th against the run and 29th overall.
Jonathan Stewart, CAR – $6,200 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – What Stewart lacks in explosiveness, he will make up for in falling forward into the end zone, or so the theory goes. Stewart is getting the carries volume, while healthy and now gets a home game against the defensively challenged Saints.
Matt Forte, NYJ – $4,300 (DK), $8,500 (FDRAFT) – Forte is playing the majority of snaps, thanks in large part to game situations that have been putting the Jets in pass mode, where Forte is playing 60% of the snaps. Against the Dolphins, this is unlikely to change this week.
Giovani Bernard, CIN – $3,800 (DK), $7,400 (FDRAFT) – With the aforementioned potential pass happier game between CIN and GB, Bernard stands to benefit as he is playing more overall snaps that rookie Joe Mixon, and even more so in the pass game, which the Bengals will likely lean on here.
Rashard Higgins, CLE – $5,100 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – Higgins has emerged, especially as Corey Coleman has gone on IR, as the main receiving beneficiary among the WR corps of the Browns quicker approach. Higgins registered 11 targets and seven catches against the Ravens last week.
JJ Nelson, ARI – $5,700 (FD) – Nelson wasted no time in taking advantage of the lineup bump to WR2, which with Bruce Arians means more, more, more targets and production. He has been priced up appropriately on DK/FDRAFT, but FanDuel still has him well below 6K.
Ted Ginn, NO – $5,800 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,000 (FDRAFT) – REVENGE! Ginn heads back to Carolina and while the matchup is not profound, the Saints are going to have to throw. Ginn has tournament upside filling the Brandin Cooks role in this offense and has played on 2/3 of all snaps and 78% of pass snaps for the Saints this season.
Jermaine Kearse, NYJ – $5,800 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – As part of the Jets passing a lot, Kearse, like Forte, has benefitted. Kearse has 14 targets and 11 catches in two weeks, and is coming off a 22 DK point game in Oakland.
Jared Cook, OAK – $5,200 (FD), $3,100 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – Are you ready for a Jared Cook Chalk Week? Well, maybe not chalk, but Cook is going to be discussed a lot this week heading in against Washington. Cook has 11 targets in two weeks and faces a Redskins defense that got beat by Zach Ertz and are 29th in DVOA against TE so far this season.
Zach Miller, CHI – $4,800 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – Miller, like Cohen, should be busy in this game for Chicago. Miller already has run the fourth most routes per game for TEs in the league and second in expected fantasy point market share, per PFF.
Kickers and Defense:
Philadelphia Eagles – $4,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $5,900 (FDRAFT) –Eagles pass rush against a leaky Giants offensive line could create some defensive points here. The Eagles are six point favorites to underline the potential table tilt towards passing this game could see from the Giants end.
Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,500 (FD) – Jacksonville has vastly improved their pass rush and the Baltimore Ravens have lost their top tackle, making things even harder than a trip to London is already.
Phil Dawson, ARI – $4,500 (FD) – Dawson is at home and has the highest implied Vegas team total among the min priced kickers. Additionally, he is kicking indoors and the game is expected to remain close, perfect for place kickers’ point potential.
Good luck this week! – JW