NFL Value Plays: Week 2
Let’s find some low-cost value plays at each position so you can mix/match your lineups to take down your tournaments this week.
Value thresholds for each site:
FanDuel: $6,900 or less for QB, $6,500 or less for RB/WR, $5,500 or less for TE, $4,500 for K/DEF.
DraftKings: Less than $5,500 for QB, less than $5,000 for RB/WR, less than $4,000 for TE and less than $3,000 for DEF.
FantasyDraft: Less than $11,000 for QB, less than $10,000 for RB/WR, less than $8,000 for TE and less than $6,000 for DEF.
We are looking at the whole Week 1 slate, so if you have any questions, hit me up in the Comments Area, Premium Slack Chat or reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Since it is Week 1, and in Week 1 we see all things revealed as to snap share, new additions chemistry and the like, we are looking at some common sense plays to open things up.
It got tight quick after Week 1 and we are left with some ominous choices below our self-imposed salary restrictions – all of these guys are over 20 points of expected scoring, according to Vegas.
Jared Goff, LAR – $6,500 -FD, $5,100 -DK, $10,100 – Goff showed he was not the auto-target for defense he was at the end of his rookie season. He gets another home game here where he is the favorite against a Redskins team that got pelted by Carson Wentz and the Eagles.
Joe Flacco, BAL – $5,200 – DK, $10,200 -FDRAFT – Flacco is also at home and faces a frisky Browns defense that graded out as above average (13th) against the Steelers, according to PFF Premium Grades. Flacco gets the Browns in his house, however, and has a sizable eight point favorite label pinned to his jersey.
Blake Bortles, JAX – $4,400 – DK – DK is DARING you to ignore Bortles by pricing him so insanely low. He is so inexpensive that he can be considered in cash games, even without the services of Allen Robinson. The Jags are at home and play the Tennessee Titans, who just turned in way below average pass rush and pass coverage performance against Oakland in Nashville.
CJ Anderson, DEN – $4,700 – DK, $9,200 – FDRAFTB – Anderson got 20 carries and the eighth most RB snaps in Week 1 and now faces a Cowboys team that scored below average in run defense against (GASP!) the Giants in Dallas. Dallas showed well in the pass coverage, too, which could force the Broncos to lean on Anderson as they did in Week 1. He is 7K on FanDuel, making his relative DK/FDRAFT prices more stark.
Jacquizz Rodgers, TB – $4,200 – DK, $8,700 – FDRAFT – Out of sight, out of mind. Rodgers may have been a favorite punt this week in relief of Doug Martin had Hurricane Irma not washed out the game with the Dolphins. At home, and against Chicago, Rodgers will have first crack on putting the same kind of RB1 stamp he placed in relief of Martin in previous seasons.
Jonathan Stewart, CAR – $5,900 – FD, $4,400 – DK, $8,800 – FDRAFT – Sure, Christian McCaffrey had more snaps, but it was Stewart who carried the rock in Week 1, on the road. It may be another inefficient outing for Stewart against the stoic Bills run defense, but the Panthers are nearly eight point favorites as of this writing, at home, so Stewart will get his chances at 20 carries at 4.4K on DK.
James White, NE – $5,700 – FD, $4,000 – DK, $7,800 – FDRAFT – A potential passing shootout looks good for White, who led the Patriots in snaps from the RB position. The Saints, at home, should be able to pass the ball around and force the Patriots to keep up in the air, making White a stellar play.
Stefon Diggs, MIN – $6,500 – FD – It is understood that volume pass catchers are not as valued on FanDuel due to half point per reception scoring there, but Pittsburgh showed vulnerability in their lack of pass rush and coverage against Cleveland and the Vikings just showed that Sam Bradford knows his weapons and will use them.
Marqise Lee, JAX – $5,900 – FD, $3,800 – DK, $7,400 – FDRAFT – No Robinson means more targets for similarly price Allen Hurns and Lee, who stepped up well in cash games in Robinson’s absence previously. Also, it has already been mentioned that the Titans continued their poor play on pass defense in Week 1 and now the Jags get them at home here.
Jordan Matthews, BUF – $3,900 – DK, $7,700 – FDRAFT – The Bills will be behind and Matthews played in the most snaps from the WR position for the Bills. As the chemistry improves with Matthews, the expectation is that he will start to get more targets.
Jermaine Kearse, NYJ – $5,400 – FD, $3,900 – DK, $7,700 – FDRAFT – The Jets acquired Kearse and immediately made him their top target for Josh McCown’s pass attempts, getting nine targets and seven catches. The Jets will be behind all season, so the passing game will be asked to keep up with the opposition.
Coby Fleener, NO – $5,300 – FD, $3,100 – DK, $6,000 – FDRAFT – It is always a trap to list Fleener in values – his talent and opportunity is always profound even when his execution is not. Still, with the Patriots expected to play keep-away with Michael Thomas, this leaves Fleener to grab some targets and production in an expected high scoring affair, at home.
Jermaine Gresham, ARI – $4,600 – FD, $2,700 – DK, $5,300 – FDRAFT – Gresham may be a beneficiary of the loss of David Johnson from the team. Gresham had four targets in Week 1 and is at home here and could soak up some of the shorter Carson Palmer throws in Week 2.
Charles Clay, BUF – $5,200 – FD, $3,000 – DK, $6,000 – FDRAFT – Clay led the Bills in targets with eight and will likely get a similar workload while Matthews works himself into Tyrod Taylor’s consciousness throughout the season.
Kickers and Defense:
LA Chargers – $4,300 – FD, $2,800 – DK, $5,600 – FDRAFT – The Chargers have a terrific pass rush and that is what you are looking for in a defense – a team that can create pressure and cause turnovers. They are at home against Jay Cutler and the Dolphins, who have been on Hurricane duty and now travel to the west coast. Love the Chargers this week.
Indianapolis Colts – $4,200 – FD, $2,300 – DK, $4,500 – FDRAFT – Colts showed a pass rush in Week 1 as well and go against a Cardinals line that PFF graded next to last in Week 1.
Phil Dawson, ARI – $4,500 – FD – Despite the Colts love, Dawson will be indoors and the Cardinals are still expected to score 20+ points. Could be a FG-fest, which would make Dawson an excellent min priced play.
Good luck this week! – JW