NFL Value Plays: Week 1
Let’s find some low-cost value plays at each position so you can mix/match your lineups to take down your tournaments this week.
Value thresholds for each site:
FanDuel: $6,900 or less for QB, $6,500 or less for RB/WR, $5,500 or less for TE, $4,500 for K/DEF.
DraftKings: Less than $5,500 for QB, less than $5,000 for RB/WR, less than $4,000 for TE and less than $3,000 for DEF.
FantasyDraft: Less than $11,000 for QB, less than $10,000 for RB/WR, less than $8,000 for TE and less than $6,000 for DEF.
We are looking at the whole Week 1 slate, so if you have any questions, hit me up in the Comments Area, Premium Slack Chat or reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Since it is Week 1, and in Week 1 we see all things revealed as to snap share, new additions chemistry and the like, we are looking at some common sense plays to open things up.
Carson Wentz – PHI at WAS – $5,300 (DK), $10,500 (FDRAFT) – The highest total among the QBs in the mandatory price range, Wentz has the Eagles set to launch with a 24.5 implied team total in a game that forecasts to be close and higher scoring at 47.5.
Sam Bradford – MIN vs. NO – $10,200 (FDRAFT) – An aberrant price point here as Bradford is only below the value threshold on FDRAFT, and the higher scoring contest forecasted against the Saints looks good for Bradford to compete for the best $ for $ QB on the slate on that site.
Scott Tolzien – IND at LAR – $6,000 (FANDUEL), $4,500 (DK), $10,000 (FDRAFT) – Tolzien is improbably priced so well on DK, where he is $300 cheaper than fellow FanDuel 6K price DeShone Kiser and is in a better projected matchup. This is a value play only for people that just wanted $ for $ max value.
Brian Hoyer – SF vs. CAR – $5,100 (DK), $10,100 (FDRAFT), $6,400 (FANDUEL) – We do not know for sure how Kyle Shanahan will work in SF, but the preseason showed the same kind of aggressive offense we saw in Atlanta last season when young Shanahan was OC. Hoyer is conservatively priced and is a risk as the actual Week 1 revelation is still to come about the new Niners. Still, if Kyle does have the right stuff, then Hoyer, Pierre Garcon and company will be great values at home against an East Coast team Week 1.
Darren McFadden – DAL vs. NYG – $5,800 (FANDUEL) – Low cost, Sunday Night play and only applicable if there is no Zeke Elliot, obviously. If Elliott is indeed out, then McFadden inherits the bell cow role but also must be used with caution and only on FD where receptions do not mean as much, point wise.
Dalvin Cook – MIN vs. NO — $6,500 (FANDUEL), $9,100 (FDRAFT)- Same nice scoring matchup as Bradford, and if he is the starter and main snap share back, it is a good scoring matchup and well suited for FanDuel.
Christian McCaffrey – CAR at SF — $6,500 (FANDUEL) – A good value for his money, McCaffrey promises to be a Reggie Bush type back for the Panthers and worth a look against the Niners on the road, especially if being on the road means more passing. Right now, the Panthers are 5.5 point favorites.
Tevin Coleman – ATL at CHI — $6,200 (FANDUEL) – Nice price for a potential TD or two back like Coleman, who is still 1B to Devonta Freeman’s 1A in a 50.5 Vegas total game where the Falcons are seven-point favorites.
Carlos Hyde – SF vs. CAR – $4,800 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – This Niners team is going a little under the radar, and while Shanahan liked to deploy multiple RBs in Atlanta, Hyde dominated this position from a snap share perspective and looms large over the Niners RB position in talent.
Larry Fitzgerald – ARI at DET — $6,400 (FANDUEL) – He is likely a chalky option as the main receiver on an implied 25 point total for the Cardinals in the dome in Detroit.
Adam Thielen – MIN vs. NO — $5,700 (FANDUEL), $4,800 (DK) – Super low price for high upside in tourneys against a projected leaky defense and a team total of nearly 26.
Kendall Wright – ATL at CHI — $3,200 (DRAFTKINGS), $6,300 (FDRAFT) – The Bears will likely be behind the Falcons, forcing volume, and short passes may be more Wright’s specialty in this offense. Getting 3x his salary seems likely here.
Ted Ginn – NO at MIN — $5,600 (FANDUEL), $4,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – He has been a staple of the Value Plays for the last two seasons, when healthy. Now, he inherits the Brandin Cooks role on the pass happy Saints and will be more highly owned than you may have thought when he signed with the Saints.
Zach Ertz – PHI at WAS — $3,500 (DK), $7,000 (FDRAFT) – Chalky, chalk, chalk, chalk on DK/FDRAFT, where he is forecasted close to 4x his salary against a team that was one of the worst, fantasy wise, to tight ends last season.
Jack Doyle – IND at LAR — $5,100 (FANDUEL), $3,700 (DK), $7,300 (FDRAFT) – Bets are that Tolzien will look more to Doyle, who does not have to split the TE1 role with Dwayne Allen any longer. More of a solid cash game play at TE on FD, he would be an interesting pivot from Ertz on DK/FDRAFT.
Austin Hooper – ATL at CHI — $4,700 (FANDUEL), $3,000 (DK), $5,900 (FDRAFT) – Hooper is now the TE1 in ATL, who promises to continue to use the TE often in an offense that is implied to score 29 points in Chicago.
Evan Engram – NYG at DAL — $4,900 (FANDUEL), $2,900 (DK), $5.600 (FDRAFT) – Engram takes over at TE for the Giants against a Cowboys team that was miserable against the TE last season, fantasy wise.
Kickers and Defense:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. Kansas City Chiefs — $4,500 (FANDUEL) – The dead dirt minimum for the Patriots is a fine bargain, even against the turnover averse Chiefs.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at Los Angeles Rams — $4,300 (FANDUEL), $2,700 (DK), $5,300 (FDRAFT) – Dare to pick on Jared Goff, which was a popular strategy last season after Goff took over.
Kai Forbath – MIN vs. NO — $4,500 – Kickers!
Good luck this week! – JW