NBA Thoughts 11/28/16

The weekend as far as NBA goes was a profitable one as many of you shared winning screenshots and had great scores. NFL wasn’t as nice for some but thankfully we have NBA slates every night for the foreseeable future. With news already breaking across the association, tonight’s lineup construction is shaping up to be rather interesting. Let’s dig into who should be must plays tonight and where we can roster value while not sacrificing upside.

Studs who won’t dud

With a few games projected to be blowouts, we are susceptible to mistakes when projecting a normal amount of minutes for these teams. The Raptors are the first ones that come to mind tonight. With a spread of over 15, the Raptors are in a spot where they can be leading comfortably by the 4th quarter and won’t need to push their guys. It’s also worth noting that Derozan is approaching his highest price of the season on DraftKings and could be a victim of a blowout tonight.

The high priced players I’ll be targeting tonight will come from the Wizards and Kings game. With just a 4.5-point spread, this game should stay close and give John Wall and Demarcus Cousins four quarters of work. It’s also evident that since Collison’s return and the lineup change, the Kings are running at a much faster pace. The total is at 210 which is the third highest on the slate meaning Vegas is also aware of the Kings’ recent changes.

Another game I’m interested in is the Golden State game later tonight. Most will be quick to assume that Atlanta on a back-to-back will get blown out in this spot but Atlanta got blown out yesterday by the Lakers and didn’t play their normal amount of minutes. Vegas has this at a 13-point spread which means they’re giving some credit to this Atlanta team. If we get 34 minutes from guys like Curry and Durant, they could be worth paying up for specially in tournaments.

Guys that make it happen

Due to the guys I’m willing to pay up for, we don’t need that much value. Some of the early news has already opened up value which should be enough on a slate like tonight. Injuries in Miami have opened up some guard value, we have some forward value in Boston, and the shenanigans in Memphis might still be an option. Here are the guys I’m fitting into my rosters tonight.

DraftKingsFanduel
Kelly OlynykKelly Olynyk
Amir JohnsonJahlil Okafor
James JohnsonAmir Johnson
Josh RichardsonJames Johnson
Richaun HolmesJosh Richardson

 

If you are going to heavily invest yourself in any games tonight, make sure they’re the ones without blowout potential. The WAS/SAC and NYK/OKC games are great ones to target and can even make good game stacks. I also think there’s an outside chance that Atlanta can force the Warriors to play four quarters and therefor return some fantasy value. These value plays also make great fillers in those lineups to help you afford some of the higher priced players.

Hope to see some screenshots tonight and some nice scores. Like always, feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) or in the premium slack chat. I’ll confirm most of these plays on the Deeper Dive later today where you can get a good idea of where I’m going in tournaments. Till next time, party animals!