NBA Thoughts 11/25/16
The day off should have us feeling fresh and ready to go for another 14-game night in the association. Plenty of news has already come out and we find ourselves in a similar situation where the chalk value will come from the Memphis Grizzlies once again. I’ll run through the team and see where we can pivot and get away from the monster ownership percentages some of them will have. It’s a big slate, but I’ll do my best to navigate through the value for you guys. Let’s get to it!
Minutes and Production
In a 14-game slate, you don’t now want to be the guy rostering players who will play 22 minutes and sweat out their production. With huge scores taking down tournaments on larger slates, you want 25+ point outing from all your players including your value plays. This Memphis team will once again be at the forefront of the value plays so let’s dive into this team a bit.
Tony Allen was our main value plays last time out, but due to foul trouble he severely underperformed and might lead to suppressed ownership today. In his 22 minutes, he produced 15.25 DK points which is right around his average of .7 fp/min. What stands out to me here is that his production is fairly predictable. Without foul trouble and 30+ minutes of action, he would have exceeded his price tag by a nice margin and I wouldn’t be writing about him. Tony Allen should again be the best value play on the night and his bad game should be thrown out the window.
If we can fill our lineups with guys who are getting 30+ minutes and have the ability to get us 25+ points, we can put ourselves in great shape even on big slates. Although we hate the sound of it, guys like Tony Allen, Vince Carter, and Jamychal Green all fit that bill.
Who do we pay up for?
So looking back two days ago at another big slate, who did the top lineups play in order to reach those monster scores? Let’s take a look at the 1st place lineup in the Money Ball on DraftKings.
On average, these players reached a 7x multiple but more importantly, they had the opportunity to do much more. There are three players in this lineup who didn’t reach 20 fantasy points. Notice you didn’t need Harden, Westbrook, or Cousins to reach this score. With pretty much every top-tier option on the slate tonight, we need to be nearly perfect with our value if we want to use them. If you want to be a little safer, using $7.5k-$9k guys as the spots to pay up for could still allow you the ability to reach 350+ scores. Similar to the way we select value plays, finding mispriced top-tier options like Lillard and Love in the example above, is a great way to gain access to these monster scores. Here are some guys I think fit this bill in tonight’s slate.
|Chris Paul||Jimmy Butler|
|Andre Dummond||Damian Lillard|
|Paul George||Paul George|
|Damian Lillard||Draymond Green|
|Steph Curry||Chris Paul|
In my opinion, we’re going to need 350+ scores once again to take a tournament down tonight. If you want studs, you’re going to need cheap value plays that can reach 25+ (Memphis guys, Bayless, Carroll, Ingram). If you want to be a little safer and don’t trust some of the value plays, roster maybe one cheap option while loading up on the strong $7k-$9k plays above. Both of these strategies give you access to the 350+ scores we’re aiming for and will be the way I attack tournaments tonight.
As always, feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) or in the premium slack chat where I’ll be constructing lineups and giving out information. I’ll also say, that it can be worthwhile to invest a few extra minutes on key situations (Memphis, Denver, Philadelphia) that way you can predict their production at maximum accuracy. Hope to see screenshots when the night is over! Till next time, party animals!