NBA Thoughts 11/23/16
Happy Thanksgiving Eve! We have fantastic slate on tap tonight and hopefully we can take down some cash headed into the Holiday. Make sure to tune into the Deeper Dive at 5 pm EST tonight for more specifics on the players I will be targeting. For now, I wanted to write a few words on targeting teams with injuries/tight rotations.
Injuries, Tight Rotations, and the Memphis Grizzlies
As you know, in the NBA minutes generally equal money, and a lot of our time should be spent trying to figure out rotations and who will see big minutes on any given night. It is a fluid situation in the NBA with players regularly missing games, and it certainly takes a lot of practice to become skilled and predicting minutes and rotations. Often times, when a starter is declared out, the DFS masses will flock to his direct back up – certainly not a bad strategy in most cases – but many overlook the cascading effect a player or two missing from a team can have on the entire rotation. The best example of this tonight is with the Memphis Grizzlies, who will be without starting wings James Ennis and Chandler Parsons. Parsons has missed significant time this season, but Ennis has played big minutes in most games. Fortunately for us, his injury occurred last game in the second quarter, and we can look at one my favorite resources, popcornmachine.net, to see how the Grizzlies adjusted to his absence:
If you study this chart closely, you’ll see James Ennis went down in the 2nd quarter and did not return. From that point forward until there were less than 2 minutes left in the game in the 4th quarter and the Grizzlies had the game wrapped up, Memphis coach David Fizdale used mostly a 7-man rotation, whereas most teams use a 10 or 11-man rotation. We can expect a similar tight rotation tonight in a great matchup at Philadelphia in what should be a reasonably close game (Vegas has the Grizzlies listed as just 5-point favorites). Assuming this game stays close (and it should), the seven Grizzlies we can expect to be in the rotation should all see big minutes. And when you start looking at the salaries of the Grizzlies who are going to play all the minutes tonight, it becomes an exciting DFS scenario. Here are the DraftKings salaries of the 7 Grizzlies I expect to see the vast majority of the time tonight:
Mike Conley $6,900
Marc Gasol $7,000
Zach Randolph $5,100
JaMychal Green $4,200
Vince Carter $4,100
Tony Allen $3,300
Andrew Harrison $3,100
These are extraordinarily cheap salaries for players we can project for big minutes in a good matchup. We may see wings Troy Williams or Troy Daniels steal a few minutes, but those guys have hardly played this season and with the Grizzlies having a day off yesterday and a day off tomorrow, Fizdale should run an extremely tight rotation tonight. This next statement will sound crazy, but I think there is a realistic possibility ALL SEVEN of the main Grizzlies reach value tonight, with one or two vastly exceeding their value threshold.
I will talk on the show about which Grizzlies I am highest on, but this is going to be a team you are going to want to target in your lineups tonight.
Make sure to tune into the show tonight, and I hope ya’ll have a fantastic Thanksgiving!