NBA Thoughts 11/22/16

Coming off one of the best slates of the year, we dive into a four-game night full of great plays. I’ll give my overall thoughts, give you some of my projections which I think are being miscalculated across the industry, and some plays I think are a must. We’re aiming for another solid night and I’ll do my best to dig into some numbers for you guys. Let’s get to it!

Minutes and Rotations

In a four game slate you need to search for value, it won’t be obvious. One way I go about doing this is to go through each game and predict minutes and rotations. Many people are looking towards the Knicks team tonight that should have Noah sit this one out. When looking at game logs, Hernangomez may seem appealing, but is he? Due to O’Quinn’s foul trouble, he was able to log minutes at the Center position against a team who always has a big man on the floor (Atlanta). It would be silly to project him for the same number of minutes and assume O’Quinn will get in foul trouble again. It’s also worth noting that in this same situation, Hernangomez is not in the top four most used lineups. Using NBAWowy I was able to pull this up.

 

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Portland is notorious for going small, so we could see Porzingis closing out the game against Plumlee, leaving O’Quinn and Hernangomez without seeing the court late in the 4th quarter. This chart also shows us that Justin Holiday and Brandon Jennings could be viable punt options on a small slate.

Guys that make it happen

I’ve mentioned a few guys I think are interesting but here is a longer list of low-cost guys I’m looking at for tonight’s slate.

DraftKingsFanduel
Kyle O’QuinnKyle O’Quinn
Jordan ClarksonJordan Clarkson
Jusuf NurkicMoe Harkless
Nikola JokicNikola Mirotic

 

Trying to predict minutes as best as I can, these are the guys who stand out to me. I’ll be using these guys in tournaments tonight and look to shoot for 350 scores across the industry. It’s a short four-game slate so the more time we spend on predicting minutes, the better our night can be. As always, feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) or on Slack where I’ll be answering questions throughout the day. Till next time, party animals!