NBA Thoughts – 3/27/17

There’s only one $12k+ stud on the board today and that’s Russell Westbrook against the Dallas Mavericks. Some could argue that it’s a tougher matchup than what he sees daily, but is that enough to fade Westy on tonight’s slate? I’ll go over what the optimal lineup construction looks like, what lineup took down the last six-game slate, and what guys can help us replicate that success. Let’s get to it!

 

Lineup Construction

I start off every slate looking at the top point-per-dollar plays to see if there’s value we can take advantage of. There doesn’t seem to be any injury situations that top the list as of right now. We’re still waiting on confirmation on Hayward, Cousins, and Gasol. If none of those situations break our way, we could be looking at a balanced night.

The last six-game slate took place on the 16th, where Westbrook was also on the slate and there was a shortage of value. Here’s a look at the winning lineup of the big $6 main event that night. Note how even with Speights in the lineup, the $4k and $5k players performed well enough to carry his performance. If there is enough $4k and $5k players that can perform on tonight’s slate that can warrant playing Westbrook.

 

 

Again, the cheapies were the ones to carry this lineup as Westbrook didn’t reach 70 and Speights clearly underperformed even for his minimum salary price tag. On tonight’s slate, I don’t see any $4k or $5k players that can replicate these lines. As of now, a balanced lineup seems like the optimal way to go.

 

Guys that make it happen

If news breaks during the day opening value, we would be able to fit Westbrook and create a lineup like the one above. As of now, we can’t and these are the guys I’m using in my lineups.

 

DraftKingsFanduel
Marc GasolTobias Harris
George HillSerge Ibaka
Serge IbakaRussell Westbrook
Andre DrummondKawhi Leonard

 

 

It’s balanced lineups across the board. We’re almost certain to have news come out during the day, so make sure to play close attention and adjust accordingly.

Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding the slate. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat leading up to lock. The trio will also confirm most of these plays and lineup construction on the Deeper Dive later today. Till next time, party animals!