NBA Thoughts 2/8/17

What’s up ya’ll. We’ve got a huge 12-game slate on tap for tonight and there are a ton of very enticing plays. Of course, we’ll get into all of them on the Deeper Dive today, and before that read the Deep Dive to get an outline for who you should be looking at across the slate. I wanted to spend this time taking a close look at finding value within a team in general, and the Sacramento Kings tonight in particular. Let’s get to it.

Tonight, the Kings have a home matchup against the Celtics where they have a 102 point team implied total. The Kings have been absolutely wrecked by injury recently, losing Omri Casspi, Rudy Gay, and Garrett Temple. For this game, they’ll have DeMarcus Cousins out with suspension. There is a ton of minutes and usage to go around in Sacramento in what is a nice, middle-of-the road matchup for the Kings.

We can expect the Kings to use an 8-man rotation tonight against the Celtics if this game remains competitive, with Malachai Richardson perhaps stealing a few minutes as a 9th man. Where this starts to get really crazy is the total salaries on Draftkings of the Kings who will see the court time tonight. I’ll list them for you, in order of position:

Collison: 5.3

Lawson: 4.7

Afflalo: 3.3

McLemore: 3.0

Barnes: 5.8

Tolliver: 4

Koufos: 3.6

Cauley-Stein: 3.5

TOTAL: $33.2K

I have the Celtics, over the past 4 weeks (their time period without Avery Bradley) giving up an average of 219 total fantasy points per game to all members of the opposition. We know on DraftKings in GPPs that we are generally pretty thrilled if we can identify players that have a solid chance of reaching 6x their salary-based value. Let’s say this Kings squad can be expected to score slightly fewer fantasy points than the Celtics are typically allowing, and also perhaps some of the production on the Kings will go to Richardson or another random scrub on the Kings that sees a couple of minutes. So let’s put this entire 8-man group at 210 combined total fantasy points, which I believe is a fair projection tonight.

If we divide that 210 fantasy points by the total salary of $33,200 of the Kings players, we get a very interesting number: 210/33.2 = 6.3. Basically, this group as an entity is very likely to smash value. When we consider that there will certainly be members of this group who underperform tonight, then math tells us there will also be members of this group who exceed that 6.3 mark. Basically, if the Kings play even decently well tonight, they are going to have several members of the team who absolutely smash value. (Add up the salaries of another team’s entire rotation to notice the difference). You’re going to want to roster a Sacramento King on every DK roster tonight, and taking 3-4 Kings on a single team is certainly within reason. Here, in order, is the list of the Kings I think are most likely to get 6x salary or more tonight, but honestly I really believe all eight Kings are in play:

  1. Koufos
  2. Lawson
  3. Collison
  4. Cauley-Stein
  5. Tolliver
  6. Barnes
  7. Afflalo
  8. McLemore

Good luck tonight, #LetsGetIt