NBA Thoughts 2/6/17
We’ve got an 11-game slate on tap on this post-Super Bowl Sunday NBA slate (hopefully you didn’t have quite as much money down on the Falcons as I did). It looks like an amazing set of games and big tournaments are everywhere across the industry. Let’s dive into a few of my favorite DraftKings plays.
Jrue Holiday, $7,900 — While this may seem like a high price tag to pay for Jrue Holiday (and indeed I believe it is a season high price tag for him), the matchup and numbers all point to him being worth every penny. Coach Alvin Gentry is finally giving Holiday the minutes and he’s responding in a big way. Over his previous 5 games, Holiday has averaged 37.6 MPG and 46.8 DK points, and that’s with average matchups against the Wizards (twice), the Pistons, the Raptors, and the Spurs. Tonight? Well tonight he gets a truly golden matchup against the Suns and Eric Bledsoe, who has been one of the worst at defending the pick and roll all season long. The Suns continue to play at a fast pace and we see a 221 total in this game with the Pelicans installed as 5 point favorites. Holiday also benefits from the home matchup here, as he’s shot much better at home this season, and, more sustainably, has averaged 2 more assists per game at home than on the road, in large part due to the favorable home cooking of the Pelicans’ official scorer. Holiday is an outstanding play in all formats tonight and makes for a great pairing with teammate Anthony Davis.
TJ Warren, $4,300 — This is a GPP only play as there is a lot of risk in rostering Warren, but he should fly far under the radar and brings significant upside at this price point, and is also coming off of two nice games. The appeal here is the possible funnel spot that Warren finds himself in. Jrue Holiday should do a nice job locking up Eric Bledsoe, and last time these two teams faced off, the Pelicans switched solid defender Solomon Hill onto Devin Booker. Now, TJ Warren did not play in that game, so things could change. But if that pattern holds true, that will leave one of the worst wing defenders in the league, rookie Buddy Hield, on Warren, who is a capable enough scorer to take advantage of it. Booker is also worth a shot here in case the Pelicans elect to keep Hield on Booker, in which case it should be booker with the big performance. I like both Warren and Booker, but prefer Warren in GPPs, and would not put them both on the same roster.
Andre Drummond, $8,300 — I’m not the biggest fan of Andre Drummond’s game, but he is in a truly tremendous spot tonight. In the absence of Joel Embiid (who is a legit superstar on the defensive end), opposing centers have been going absolutely nuts against the Sixers. Check out these lines:
Hassan Whiteside: 27 minutes, 61 DK points
Dewayne Dedmon: 22 minutes, 33.5 DK points
Salah Mejri: 21 minutes, 42.25 DK points
DeMarcus Cousins: 32 minutes, 75.75 DK points
Robin Lopez: 31 minutes, 44 DK points
Those are some truly insane lines from some either struggling or generally unimpressive centers. Drummond is at home and rested and should feast tonight.
Good luck in all your games tonight and make sure to check out myself, Loughy, and Manny on the Deeper Dive tonight at 5:00 EST. #LetsGetIt