NBA Thoughts 2/10/17
NBA Thoughts by Peter Christensen aka DraftCheat
Happy Friday and welcome to my FantasyDraft NBA Thoughts! We’ve got a nice slate on tap with several great games to choose from. Let’s dive right into some of my favorite plays on FantasyDraft for today’s set of game. As always, we are looking for players to reach 3x their salary. So, for a player priced at $10,000, we want to reasonably project him for 30 Fantasy Draft points.
FantasyDraft also gives us a great deal of position flexibility with three guards, three forward/centers and two utility spots. In my experience, this leads the “average” gamers to land on the most popular plays of the night, but the savvy gamer can find an advantage by focusing on some “secondary” options that could very easily outperform the “chalky” consensus plays of the day.
Okay, on to the players I think will get there tonight:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, $19,200 – Yes, I am well aware that he is the most expensive player on the site, priced well above the likes of John Wall, Anthony Davis, and Karl-Anthony Towns. This also means he needs nearly 60 fantasy points to reach value. Additionally, over the last fortnight, he really hasn’t been that great from a fantasy perspective. However, I don’t care!
Against the Lakers, at home, and with Jabari Parker out for the season, the Greek Freak is going to go nuts tonight. Giannis is among the most transition-happy players in the NBA, and Los Angeles has conceded the second most transition points in the NBA this season. Where did Antetokounmpo’s one big game recently happen? In Phoenix, against the Suns, the only team that has allowed more transition points than the Lakers.
Giannis will also see a nice usage bump with Jabari Parker (torn ACL) off the court, as the leader of the Bucks he will likely step up in a big way in Milwaukee’s first game without Jabari. While I am not a huge “narrative street” guy, I think there is something real to it tonight with Giannis. Which has me going All-in with the talented youngster.
Brook Lopez, $12,700 – I expect this pick to be somewhat off the radar, as on paper this matchup against Hassan Whiteside and the Heat is not a favorable one. However, the savvy daily fantasy gamer will realize that Brook Lopez is not a traditional center, especially in his current form, where he’s bombing three pointers from deep as his primary means of offense.
Lopez has averaged well over a fantasy point per minute in the two previous meetings against Miami, and has attempted a whopping 20 three pointers in those games. Whiteside does not like to venture outside the paint and has done a very poor job closing out on Brook’s three point attempts. Lopez is clearly not gun shy about pulling the trigger from deep in this matchup, and the Nets need his size to defend Whiteside so the minutes are more secure than usual. BroLo should be in store for another big game here at (hopefully) low ownership.
Robin Lopez, $9,200 – Fire up the Lopez & Lopez firm tonight! Robin’s minutes are tied very closely to the presence of Cristiano Felicio in the rotation. We saw it earlier in the season when Felicio fell out of the rotation, and we have seen it the past few games with Felicio out due to injury.
Lopez is playing big minutes for the Bulls and they’ll need him tonight against the Suns who play traditional big men Tyson Chandler and Alex Len at center. Don’t overthink this one. Lopez is exceedingly likely to play 30+ minutes vs. the Suns, and he’s an absolute bargain at this price point.
Good luck out there tonight! ~ DraftCheat
Peter Christensen (aka DraftCheat) has been playing DFS full time since 2014. He’s a multiple time Live Finalist in MLB, NFL, NBA, and CFB, and took home the FanDuel Playboy College Football Championship for $100,000 in 2015. An analytically based player and unapologetic member of #TeamMath, DraftCheat prefers the GPP style of play and is a huge proponent of using Game Theory to improve results. A lifelong Minnesota resident, he grows weary of cheering on his hapless hometown teams. You can find his work on www.FanVice.com for both articles as well as the Deeper Dive live video show airing regularly at 5pm ET or on Twitter @DraftCheat