NBA Thoughts 1/5/17
The Fanvice squad had another nice night yesterday as many of our subscribers were in chat sweating lineups late last night. Tonight we see another 8-game slate which seems to be heading in the same direction as yesterdays did. As of now value is scarce, but as the day goes on we should receive news that could help us in the lineup building process. Let’s dive into the slate and see which players are in good spots.
Underpriced with upside
Due to the nature of this slate, “value” will have to come from rostering multiple $4k players which can save you some salary and help you afford the top-tier guys. Here are some of these cheapies that showcase upside and are usable in tournaments.
Jon Leuer – Leuer has been seeing 30+ minutes in close games and is still sitting at $4,800 on DraftKings which is way too cheap. Charlotte runs a bunch of “hybrid” players which bodes well for Leuer as he is comparable to many of them as well. I expect a huge night from the forwards in Detroit which should take advantage of Marvin Williams, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Frank Kaminsky who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Al-Farouq Aminu – Aminu performed well yesterday in what was a surprisingly close game in Golden State. His minutes are back to where they were in the beginning of the season and is still priced the mid $4k range. Aminu and Harkless are seeing all of the PF and SF minutes which is encouraging and have a juicy matchup today in LA which sports the highest game total of the night. Aminu and Harkless are great targets tonight at a sub $5k price tag.
Jonas Valanciunas – On paper, this is one of the worst matchups in the league, going against Utah. On dynamic pricing sites, like DraftKings, where he’s $4,500 and should play close to 30 minutes given that Gobert is on the opposite team, JoVal should see enough minutes to warrant his price tag. It’s strictly a price play but this is one of the few times where we can guarantee his minutes. We’re looking for players with a high ceiling and Valanciunas is definitely one of them. He should go overlooked as everyone does versus Utah, but the price is way too low to pass him up.
Guys that make it happen
Alright those were some cheapies that are making their way into my lineups, but who am I paying up for? Harden is in a great spot and I’d love to roster him, but if it’s not him then who? These are the guys I’m fitting into my lineups that can help me reach the top 1% tonight.
Andre Drummond – Another great spot for Drummond and he’s still below $8,000 on DraftKings. He pretty much guarantees a double-double every game with upside for more. This Charlotte team is on a back-to-back and if Zeller misses again, they will have no answer for Drummond down low and this could get ugly fairly quickly. I’m looking for Drummond to eat today and pay off his salary with ease.
Damian Lillard – There speculation that Lillard sat out the first leg of a back-to-back to be able to play this game. If he’s in, which I hope he will, he will be amongst my top PG’s of the night. Since his last game, his price has dropped significantly to a point where he becomes a must play if he doesn’t have a minute’s restriction. It also helps that he’s facing a Lakers team that plays little to no defense. If Lillard plays, roster the best player in the highest total game of the night.
DeMar Derozan – DDR has had a string of poor matchups, blowouts, and poor performances. What this has done is put him back in a tier where he doesn’t belong. On DraftKings he’s sitting at $7,200 which is way too cheap for his production and ceiling. He just faced the Spurs and if it wasn’t for a blowout, he would have cruised passed his value threshold leaving you looking pretty in tournaments. Although Utah seems like a tough matchup, Isaiah Thomas just had a field day against this team and Derozan could produce similar numbers.
These are the guys I find in most of my lineups. As the day goes on and we get some news, this analysis can change. I’ll confirm most of these plays later on the ‘Deeper Dive’ and give takes on different players as news arises. As always, feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) or in the premium slack chat where I’ll answer questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!